Fielder for Kinsler Trade Reaction

In the 2011/2012 off-season, the Tigers shocked the baseball world an signed Prince Fielder to a $214 million contract.  Two years later, they shocked the baseball world again by trading him to the Texas Rangers for 2B Ian Kinsler.  Here are a few thoughts.

Savings

Prince Fielder is owed $168 million for the remainder of his contract.  Ian Kinsler is owed at least $62 million for the remainder of his contract that could be worth $69 million if they exercise his 2018 option. The Tigers are also sending the Rangers $30 million.  That is a future savings of at least $69 million and as much as $76 million that they are now free to spend on other players.  Other players such as retaining near free agents Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer.  

The Tigers are only saving about $4 million for 2014 in this deal, so it's not an immediate savings.  But it's also not ruling out potential trade rumors of getting someone like Shin-Soo Choo, either.  Kinsler's contract is front-loaded.  He's due to make $16 million in each of the next two years that gets reduced to $14 in 2015 and $11 million in 2017.  This gives the tigers more flexibility as his contract nears its end.  

Defense

The Tigers defense greatly improved with this deal.  Prince Fielder was one of the worst defenders at 1B  over the last 3 years.  It is likely that Miguel Cabrera will now return to 1B, where he is a much better defender.  Comparing Cabrera's last 3 years at 1B to Fielder's last 3 years at 1B:

	Innings	DRS	UZR	RZR
Miguel Cabrera (2009-2011)	3922 1/3	-9	-4.6	0.758
Prince Fielder (2011-2013)	4111	-26	-10.2	0.790

It is likely that Cabrera will be worse than he was two years ago, simply because he's out of practice.  However, it's hard to imagine that he'll be worse than Fielder.  

This also means that Cabrera won't be displaying his awful defense at 3B anymore (and could potentially be able to stay healthier):

	Innings	DRS	UZR	RZR
Miguel Cabrera	2556 2/3	-22	-26.5	0.671

Over the last 2 years when Cabrera was the Tigers full-time 3B, he ranked dead last out of 19 qualified third basemen in all three of DRS, UZR and RZR.  It will not be hard to find someone to play better 3B defense.

As far as Kinsler's defense is concerned, here are his 2B stats for the last 3 years:

	Innings	DRS	UZR	RZR
Ian Kinsler	3629 1/3	30	14.7	0.826

Out of 18 qualifying players, Kinsler ranked 4th in DRS, 7th in DRS and 10th in RZR.  All about equal to what Omar Infante has put up.  

Offense

The Tigers are clearly going to lose some offense here.  Over the last 3 years:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Ian Kinsler	2068	0.262	0.341	0.438	9.7%	10.6%	0.342	109
Prince Fielder	2094	0.297	0.396	0.515	12.8%	14.7%	0.388	146

And it appears that Kinsler was taking advantage of Arlington being a hitter's park, as he has much better numbers at home than on the road.  Over the last 3 years, Kinsler's road numbers are not great:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Ian Kinsler	1031	0.231	0.303	0.387	8.1%	12.4%	0.304	90

This doesn't automatically mean Kinsler is going to have a poor performance at Comerica Park, but the stats are not in his favor.  

For what it's worth, Steamer already had their 2014 projections out.  Here is what they are projecting for Kinsler in 2014:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+	SB
Ian Kinsler	661	0.264	0.341	0.429	9.4%	10.8%	0.339	108	19

For those of you that want the Tigers to add more speed, Kinsler provides that.  He's averaged 22 SB over the last 3 years and Steamer is projecting 19 SB for 2014.

According to WAR, Kinsler has been worth 12.8 fWAR over the last 3 years and Fielder has been worth 12.0 fWAR.  Steamer is projecting a 3.3 fWAR for Kinsler in 2014 and 3.7 fWAR for Fielder.  In all intents and purposes, WAR is claiming that they are equal in value.  I'm not sure I completely buy that (especially with Kinsler moving away from Arlington), but they are probably closer than people think, when factoring in offense, defense and baserunning altogether. 

The Tigers Are Not Done

Not even addressing the closer situation, the Tigers are not done making moves.   They need to name a third baseman for 2014, even if it's moving prospect Nick Castellanos back to 3B.  They could also look to improve LF.  If and when they sign or trade for another offensive player, it could make this move even better since they wouldn't have had the means to do it while still having Fielder on the team.  

The Tigers had 3 1B/DH-type players and a hole at 2B.  They turned one of them into a 2B and saved a whole bunch of money in the process.  At first glance, this looks like another very good move by Dave Dombrowski.