A look at what the Tigers received:
LH SP Robbie Ray
Ray was the centerpiece of the trade. He was ranked as the #5 prospect in the Nationals organization according to Baseball America and might even be ranked higher in the Tigers' system. Ray has shown to have good strikeout totals, 9.1 K/9 career in the minors and a 10.1 K/9 between A-ball and AA in 2013. However, his control needs work with a minor league career 4.0 BB/9 and a 3.9 mark in 2013. He doesn't allow many home runs, though, a 0.8 HR/9 mark at both his career minor league total and in 2013. This adds up to a 4.29 career minor league ERA and a 3.94 career minor league FIP.
Those are solid numbers, but not spectacular. Ray has never ranked in the top 100 prospect list by Baseball America and will likely fall short again this year. He is a bit of a gamble and an unknown. He could end up being a middle of the rotation starter or end up being a bullpen piece. He's far from a guarantee and that has many Tiger fans feeling uneasy about this trade.
2013 Stats:
| IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | BABIP | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A+
|
84
|
3.11
|
1.20
|
10.7
|
4.4
|
0.273
|
3.82
|
AA
|
58
|
3.72
|
1.33
|
9.3
|
3.3
|
0.317
|
3.42
|
2013 Total
|
142
|
3.36
|
1.25
|
10.1
|
3.9
|
0.293
|
3.66
|
LH RP Ian Krol
Krol spent part of 2013 at AA, part at AAA and part in the major leagues. Put simply, he's a LOOGY and will likely take Drew Smyly's spot in the bullpen. According to Minor League Central, Krol had a .215 BAA and a .586 OPS against vs. lefties in the minor leagues and a .257 BAA and a .724 OPS against vs. righties (2011-2013). At the major league level, he has a .220 BAA and a .593 OPS against vs. lefties and a .304 BAA and a .957 OPS against vs. righties. Keep him away from right-handed hitters and he should be a solid bullpen piece for the Tigers.
2013 Stats:
| IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | BABIP | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AA
|
26
|
0.69
|
0.81
|
10.0
|
2.4
|
0.210
|
2.51
|
AAA
|
3 2/3
|
4.91
|
0.82
|
17.2
|
2.5
|
0.333
|
0.20
|
MLB
|
27 1/3
|
3.95
|
1.32
|
7.2
|
2.6
|
0.280
|
4.69
|
Steve Lombardozzi
The Tigers now have a Ramon Santiago replacement - who can't seem to play shortstop very well. Lombardozzi will likely fill in as a backup 2B, 3B and LF and hit like he is a backup player. Yeah, nothing really to get excited for here.
Major League Stats:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% | wOBA | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
32
|
0.194
|
0.219
|
0.226
|
3.1%
|
12.5%
|
0.200
|
18
|
2012
|
416
|
0.273
|
0.317
|
0.354
|
4.6%
|
11.1%
|
0.296
|
83
|
2013
|
307
|
0.259
|
0.278
|
0.338
|
2.6%
|
11.1%
|
0.269
|
67
|
MLB Total
|
755
|
0.264
|
0.297
|
0.342
|
3.7%
|
11.1%
|
0.281
|
74
|
The domino effect of this trade allows Drew Smyly to go back to the starting rotation, a role in which he probably should have never left, but there simply wasn't room last year. It also frees up future obligations they would've had to give Fister over the next two years of arbitration. Payroll that they now can spread out to upgrade at closer, left field, third base or to give to Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer for long-term contracts.
However, compared to recent trades of top starting pitchers, the Tigers package seems underwhelming. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs shows that Fister is a top 25 pitcher according to traditional-based stats and a top 10 pitcher according to more advanced metrics over the last 3 years. Compared to recent trades of James Shields, Matt Garza, Jake Peavy and R.A. Dickey, the Tigers got the lowest of value in return for Doug Fister.
A very good argument could be made that Doug Fister is the most underrated starting pitcher in the game and he is continually getting underrated by the market. Is this really the best package Dombrowski could get for Fister? The Tigers are a worse team now than they were yesterday, and that's not very hopeful for a team with World Series aspirations.
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