2013 Preseason Prediction #14 – Rick Porcello

Rick Porcello won the 5^th spot in the rotation over Drew Smyly . Porcello had a great Spring Training and many are predicting a breakout season for him. His numbers over the last 3 years:

	IP	HR	BB	K	ERA	FIP	E-F
2010	162 2/3	2.6%	5.4%	12.0%	4.92	4.31	0.61
2011	182	2.3%	5.9%	13.3%	4.75	4.06	0.69
2012	176 1/3	2.0%	5.6%	13.7%	4.59	3.91	0.68

Walk rate has remained steady, but the strikeout rate has been increasing and his HR rate has been decreasing. It's a slow improvement, but this has caused his ERA and FIP to go down each year. Aside from his rookie year, Porcello's FIP has always been lower than his ERA, which normally would indicate that he's been unlucky. However, he's done it now for the last 3 years, which could mean that this is just what his talent is. The difference of his ERA and FIP has remained in the 0.60s, so it's reasonable to say that this will continue in 2013.

Using FanGraphs numbers:

	BABIP	GB	FB	LD
2010	0.307	50.3%	32.1%	17.6%
2011	0.316	51.4%	29.6%	19.0%
2012	0.344	53.2%	22.6%	24.2%

Porcello's BABIP inflated to .344 in 2012, which was the highest in all of baseball. Several factors played into it with defense probably being the biggest factor. However, his line drive rate also increased over 5% and his ineffective slider (which according to pitch f/x was the worst in all of baseball) also contributed.

This is the point where I'd bust out my Excel spreadsheet and do some figuring based on the last 3 years. Given his age of only 24, I'd expect some improvement, so I'd also factor that in and say he'd have an ERA of about 4.33 in about 185 innings. However, there's one more factor that needs to be accounted for, Porcello has scrapped his slider in favor for the curveball. I analyzed the data of Porcello's 2012 numbers without his slider in a post here. Naturally, one would think that this change will help him even more, especially if his Spring Training stats are any indication. Still, being conservative should be the way to go until we get a big sample of the change of pitch types.

Experts' Prediction/Projections:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	153	11-7	4.12	1.33	92	40
Oliver	186	11-10	4.05	1.39	105	45
ZiPS	179	11-11	4.73	1.42	107	45
Bill James	178	9-11	4.50	1.42	102	45
RotoChamp	195	10-10	4.43	1.48	114	49
CBS Sports	180	11-12	4.30	1.40	112	44
ESPN	197	14 W	3.93	1.30	117	46
MLB.com	130	8-8	4.50	1.40	75	32
FanGraphs' (22)	177	11-9	4.30	1.33	115	43

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2012 Prediction	195 1/3	14-9	3.92	1.300	123	45
2012 Actual	176 1/3	10-12	4.59	1.531	107	44
2013 Prediction	189	11-12	4.00	1.270	122	43

Fantasy Impact: Due to low strikeout totals, Porcello should probably be avoided, unless you're in an AL-Only League. Keep an eye on him though, if he does breakout.