Monday, April 15, 2013

Phil Coke Against Right-Handed Hitters

It’s a well-known fact that Phil Coke struggles against right-handed hitters.  For his career, right-handers have hit .302/.372/.437 against Coke and .396/.446/.604 last year alone.  This suggests that Coke should never pitch against right-handed hitters, essentially only being used as a LOOGY.  

However, is there a type of right-handed hitter Coke should be allowed to face?  Below is a list of right-handed hitters Coke has had the most success against, sorted by lowest OPS:


PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Ben Zobrist 16 15 3 0 0 0 0 1 3 .200 .250 .200 .450
Michael Cuddyer 9 8 1 1 0 0 2 1 2 .125 .222 .250 .472
Rajai Davis 8 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .250 .250 .250 .500
Evan Longoria 9 7 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 .143 .222 .286 .508
Generated 4/15/2013.

Now obviously we're dealing with small samples here, so this has to be taken with a grain of salt.  For the heck of it, I decided to look deeper in Ben Zobrist, Michael Cuddyer and Evan Longoria's numbers and found that they also struggle with southpaws Nate Robertson and Scott Kazmir.  Do we have a potential comp for Phil Coke?  To answer this, I decided to look at Pitch f/x data, specifically charts against right-handed hitters:



Edit: I just realized I had the wrong graph up.  With only one breaking ball, it might explain the difference between Coke and Holland (who has 2 breaking pitches).   





Now, I'm not an expert at reading these charts, but while Robertson's and Kazmir's look alike, they are pretty far off from Coke's chart, specifically with his breaking balls having more movement.  In fact, Coke's chart against RHH looks more like Derek Holland's:


Here is how Derek Holland has fared against the same four hitters that Coke has had his greatest success against:

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Rajai Davis 16 13 3 0 0 0 0 3 3 .231 .375 .231 .606
Ben Zobrist 31 30 10 3 1 1 7 1 5 .333 .355 .600 .955
Michael Cuddyer 16 15 5 1 0 1 4 1 3 .333 .375 .600 .975
Evan Longoria 33 28 11 5 0 4 10 4 7 .393 .455 1.000 1.455
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/15/2013.

While Rajai Davis has had little success against Derek Holland, Zobrist, Cuddyer and Longoria have all had great success.  

Again, it should be noted that we're dealing with small samples, but it is a little weird that three hitters have polarizing results against two pitchers who look like they have the same movement on their pitches.  

Coke against right-handed hitters remains a mystery to me.  

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