The Game Winning RBI

If you were a fan of baseball during the 1980s, you might remember a statistic that is no longer kept, the game winning RBI, or GW RBI.  GW RBI was an official MLB stat from 1980-1988 that recorded the number of RBI a player had that put his team ahead for good.  For example, say the game is tied 2-2 and a batter received an RBI that made it 3-2.  Then his team scored 2 more runs to make it 5-2 and the final score was 5-4.  The batter that drove in the 3rd run gets credit for the GW RBI even though his team needed all 5 runs to win.  With those rules in mind, I resurected this obsolete stat for the 2013 Tigers:

Player	GW RBI
Miguel Cabrera	15
Torii Hunter	15
Prince Fielder	14
Victor Martinez	9
Omar Infante	8
Alex Avila	5
Andy Dirks	4
Jhonny Peralta	3
Don Kelly	3
Brayan Pena	2
Ramon Santiago	2
Austin Jackson	1
Jose Iglesias	1
Max Scherzer	1

Not surprising, Miguel Cabrera tops the list, but his co-leader, Torii Hunter, might be surprising.  Also, despite having 30 RBI, Matt Tuiasosopo doesn't have a single GW RBI, not even when he was hitting .329/.447/.624 in the first half.  

The problem with this stat is similar with the RBI stat in general.  It depends too much on timing and the teammates getting on base.  Even as a "clutch" stat, it has it's weaknesses.  Most of the time, the player wouldn't know that his RBI was the game winning one until after the game unless he had a walk-off hit.  Oftentimes the first RBI became the game winning one and most people wouldn't associate the first few innings as "clutch" innings.  With this in mind, it's easy to see why Torii Hunter had so many GW RBI, being the 2nd batter in the game and having the opportunity to drive in the first run with Austin Jackson on base.  

You might notice that the Tigers have 84 wins, but only 83 GW RBI have been awarded.  This is because of the game on 9/10, the game winning run wasn't an RBI, but rather scored on the result of an error.  Victor Martinez got the first RBI in that game, but his RBI wasn't the "game winning" run as defined by the rules.  This confused me on how to score it, but I ultimately gave no one the GW RBI in this scenario.  Going back to the earlier example of the 5-4 game, it can be debated that the 5th run should be the GW RBI and not the 3rd.  With these issues, it's easy to see why this stat was discontinued.  

Ryan Raburn or Don Kelly?

The Tigers are going to have to make a decision pretty soon when Andy Dirks comes off the DL.  They are going to have to make room on the 25-man roster and it might come down to either keeping Ryan Raburn or Don Kelly.  There is a 3^rd option in sending down Quintin Berry, but he has become a fan favorite.  The Tigers released an official Berry jersey for fans to buy and it seems like he gotten enough clutch hits to earn a spot on the roster for at least the rest of the season. 

Neither Raburn nor Kelly have had much offensive production this year.  Raburn is hitting .172/.227/.255 with only 1 HR and12 RBI.  He was already sent to the minors once this year, right before his “veteran” clause kicked in that would allow him to refuse the assignment.  Since returning to the Tigers, Raburn has hit .217/.260/.333, which is better but a far cry from the 2^nd half numbers we are used to seeing from him the last couple of years.  His sub-.500 OPS is even lower than his career .641 1^st half OPS, suggesting that his 2^nd half resurgence isn’t even going to happen this year.  And now that he can refuse an assignment to the minors, he isn't the obvious choice anymore.

Then there’s Don Kelly.  Kelly has never been on offensive juggernaut, hitting only .244/.282/.378 over the last 2 years.  However, this year he’s hit a pathetic .178/.272/.248, which is far below expectations. 

Of course, offensive has always been secondary to Kelly as his true talents have always been flexibility and defense.  He has mainly played in the OF this year, but has also filled in the infield.  His DRS and UZR have shown him to be an average to an above average defensive player.  But his defense might not help him this time, as he has regressed as he’s gotten older and his dWAR is only at -0.1 this year. 

Raburn also has flexibility, playing 2B and OF this year.  He was forced out of the 2B position when the Tigers acquired Omar Infante, but Leyland expressed that he still wanted to play Raburn in LF when there’s a left-hander on the mound.  Quintin Berry has struggled against lefties this year, only hitting .224/.240/.367 against them, so Leyland may want to continue benching him when a left-hander starts.

As far as Raburn’s defense is concerned, he’s been bad at 2B, with a -3 DRS and -2.2 UZR this year (-18 DRS and -16.6 UZR career).  Although, he has been better in the OF (even though people only seem to remember the HR he helped assist).  With Ramon Santiago now back to a fulltime back-up infielder, Raburn might now only be seen as an outfielder.  That helps Kelly’s case as he can do both OF and INF, but Raburn is a right-handed bat.  Kelly, Berry and Dirks are all left-handed hitters.  Leyland might want to keep Raburn around just so he can go to a right-hander when a southpaw is on the mound.

If it were my choice – flip a coin.  Neither one is going to have that much of an impact.  Both have been below replacement level, Raburn at a -1.3 fWAR, -1.8 rWAR and Kelly at -0.5 fWAR, -0.5 rWAR.  Neither one is going to be the first choice off the bench.  Santiago will handle the back-up infield positions and Berry will handle the back-up outfield positions (assuming Dirks is handed the LF position). 

Both Kelly and Raburn are Leyland guys, so my guess on what the Tigers will do is to delay this inevitable decision and send pitcher Darin Downs back to the minors.  Dombrowski rarely goes with less than 12 pitchers, but with the acquisition of Anibal Sanchez, the Tigers are deep in starting rotation.  When Drew Smyly gets healthy and comes back, then the Raburn/Kelly decision will be made.  Maybe by then, something else will happen (like another injury or trade) that will delay the decision even further.  After all, this is such a tough decision as both Kelly and Raburn are so close to equal value.