2014 Preseason Prediction #8 - Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter has primarily batted 2nd the last two years and it has seemingly changed his approach.  His batting average has gone up, while his walk rate has decreased.  His power (ISO) has also decreased from his prime years, but that probably has more to do with getting older than anything else.

Hunter hit .300 for the first time in 2012 (after coming awfully close in 2009) and repeated that in 2013.  After having a walk rate of about 9.5% from 2009-2011, it was only at 6.5% in 2012, and even lower in 2013 at 4%.  Hunter still remained an effective hitter, but a different kind of hitter:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
2011	649	0.262	0.336	0.429	9.6%	19.3%	0.337	115
2012	584	0.313	0.365	0.451	6.5%	22.8%	0.356	130
2013	652	0.304	0.334	0.465	4.0%	17.3%	0.346	117

Batted ball data from FanGraphs shows less fly balls and more ground balls over the last 2 years than recent previous years:

	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	0.297	21.0%	45.7%	33.3%
2012	0.389	22.6%	52.0%	25.4%
2013	0.344	19.9%	49.5%	30.6%

There is an obvious increase in BABIP over the last 2 years, mainly due to an increase in batting average on ground balls.  From first-hand observation, it looked like he tried to take advantage of the whole created between 2nd base and 1st base with the first baseman holding a runner on first base.  And he did it with great success: 

	GB AVG
2011	0.217
2012	0.327
2013	0.285

The league average on ground balls in 2011 was .231, in 2012 was .234 and last year it was .232.  The league average usually hovers around .230.  

Manager Brad Ausmus hasn't made clear on his regular batting order yet and has batted Torii Hunter in the middle of the order during some Spring Training games.  Will moving him in the batting order effect his approach?  Will he be more patient and start drawing more walks again in the #5 spot as opposed to the #2 spot?  Will he try to hit for more home run power batting fifth?  Will his batting average go down if he is removed from batting 2nd?  Or did he change his approach because he was getting older and his placement in the batting order was just a coincidence?  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	566	0.277	0.329	0.428	17	73	4	40	120
Oliver	556	0.268	0.309	0.399	13	67	3	30	109
ZiPS	544	0.287	0.325	0.427	14	76	4	27	111
RotoChamp	529	0.280	0.328	0.431	15	69	4	-	-
CBS Sports	610	0.274	0.318	0.418	17	76	3	40	139
ESPN	589	0.278	0.321	0.424	16	79	5	33	121
MLB.com	564	0.285	0.316	0.426	14	78	4	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (23)	550	0.289	0.333	0.425	14	64	4	33	108

My Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	557	0.273	0.332	0.397	14	72	5	46	129
2013 Actual	606	0.304	0.334	0.465	17	84	3	26	113
2014 Prediction	576	0.283	0.323	0.434	17	89	3	31	112

Fantasy Impact:  Depending on league settings, Hunter would make a fine #4 or #5 OF, drafted around round 17 or so.  In 3 OF leagues, I think your OF should be filled out before you think about Hunter and therefore he should be left alone, unless you waited and draft really late for your final outfield position or you're in a deep league (14-team or more).  His age will scare many potential owners away as he can fall off a cliff at any moment.  He should be drafted with caution.

What Should the 2014 Tigers Lineup Look Like?

A few days ago, Lynn Henning gave his opening day lineup:

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Andy Dirks, LF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Alex Avila, C
6. Austin Jackson, CF
7. Nick Castellanos, 3B
8. Torii Hunter, RF
9. Jose Iglesias, SS

He also stipulated that Rajai Davis will likely play against left-handed pitching and either bat 2nd or Torii Hunter will move up and bat 2nd.  He has some odd choices, like Austin Jackson suddenly being a power threat because he's going to turn 27 or Alex Avila is suddenly going to be a .300 AVG/.500 OPS hitter because...he's going to turn 27.  Both Jackson and Avila have displayed these qualities before.  Jackson had a .179 ISO in 2012 and Avila had a .295 AVG and a .506 SLG in 2011.  However there are some signs that both those years were flukes, such as both had an abnormally high BABIP.  Relying on both to repeat that performance in 2014 is a bit of a stretch.  He also doesn't give much explanation in other spots, like Torii Hunter and number 8 "just seem to fit."  Because that makes sense.

Joshua Mastracci of the sabermetrically-inclined Beyond the Boxscore also gave his Tigers' 2014 lineup:

Against RHP:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ian Kinser, 2B
3. Torii Hunter, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Andy Dirks, LF
7. Nick Castellanos, 3B
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Against LHP:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ian Kinser, 2B
3. Torii Hunter, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Rajai Davis, LF
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Nick Castellanos, 3B
9. Jose Iglesias, SS

The big difference here is that he's moving Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez down to 4-5 spots instead of 3-4 and moving Torii Hunter to #3.  Using the same rationale as in The Book, the #3 spot isn't as important as the #4 and #5 spots, so instead of just putting the still useful Hunter in the #5 spot, he's rearranged the order.  It's a better explanation than what Henning used to plop him in the 8th spot at least.  What I disagree the most about his lineup is that he moved Avila up a spot against LHP even though his numbers against them are horrible.  His reasoning is that there needs to be a righty between the lefties Andy Dirks and Avila, but it's not needed when the righty Davis is in the lineup.  

Which brings me to my lineups.

Lefty/righty splits are readily available, so why not use them to determine the batting order?  Especially given that the Tigers are going to platoon at least 1 position (LF) and Dirks and Davis are two totally different hitters so just swapping one for the other in the batting order doesn't make much sense.

I'm using the last 2 years to get a big enough sample size.  

Against RHP:

Player	OBP	ISO
Miguel Cabera	0.400	0.294
Victor Martinez	0.373	0.127
Austin Jackson	0.361	0.159
Alex Avila	0.356	0.167
Andy Dirks	0.346	0.138
Torii Hunter	0.339	0.150
Jose Iglesias	0.328	0.049
Ian Kinsler	0.310	0.145
Rajai Davis	0.283	0.100

Ignoring Nick Castellanos and Bryan Holaday for a second since they don't have big samples, this shows clearly that Davis shouldn't be starting against RHP.  Keeping Cabrera and V-Mart in the middle of the order, Jackson and Avila have the next highest OBP, so they should get the top 2 spots against RHP.  This will keep Henning happy since Avila is a left-handed bat, same as Dirks, and he wants to keep a lefty in the #2 spot to take advantage of the hole created between 1B and 2B if the first baseman is holding a runner on 1B.

If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 3-4 hitters, the lineup based on these numbers should be:

1. Austin Jackson, CF

2. Alex Avila, C

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Torii Hunter, RF

6. Andy Dirks, LF

7. Ian Kinsler, 2B

8. Nick Castellanos, 3B

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 4-5 hitters, the lineup should be:

1. Austin Jackson, CF

2. Alex Avila, C

3. Torii Hunter, RF

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

5. Victor Martinez, DH

6. Andy Dirks, LF

7. Ian Kinsler, 2B

8. Nick Castellanos, 3B

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Against LHP:

Player	OBP	ISO
Miguel Cabrera	0.462	0.247
Ian Kinsler	0.401	0.174
Torii Hunter	0.376	0.153
Rajai Davis	0.362	0.154
Austin Jackson	0.349	0.169
Andy Dirks	0.329	0.107
Victor Martinez	0.324	0.133
Jose Iglesias	0.319	0.135
Alex Avila	0.268	0.073

Again, ignoring Castellanos and Holaday due to small sample sizes, these stats show Cabrera and Kinsler as the top 2 hitters in both OBP and ISO.  I'm willing to discount Kinsler's numbers a little due to hitting in Arlington and I like to keep Cabrera and V-Mart together just for consistency.  Kinsler, Hunter and Davis now have the highest OBP remaining.  I think Kinsler will work better in the middle of the order because of his power and Davis' speed works better at the top of the order.  These stats also show that Avila shouldn't be hitting at all against LHP.  

If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 3-4 hitters, the lineup should be:

1. Rajai Davis, LF

2. Torii Hunter, RF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Ian Kinsler, 2B

6. Austin Jackson, CF

7. Nick Castellanos, 3B

8. Bryan Holaday, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

If Cabrera and V-Mart are the 4-5 hitters, the lineup should be:

1. Rajai Davis, LF

2. Torii Hunter, RF

3. Ian Kinsler, 2B

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

5. Victor Martinez, DH

6. Austin Jackson, CF

7. Nick Castellanos, 3B

8. Bryan Holaday, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

It is likely that rookie manager Brad Ausmus is going to be more consistent than my proposed lineup and be more conventional.  It is also likely that there's is some sort of comfort level among players on where they bat in the order.  However, there is such a big difference in some of these players' splits, that it makes sense to switch it up a bit depending on who's pitching.

What would you like the lineup to look like?   Post yours in the comments.  

2013 Preseason Predictions Evaluated

C Alex Avila:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	399	0.241	0.344	0.414	13	59	2	63	112
2013 Actual	330	0.227	0.317	0.376	11	47	0	44	112

Alex Avila started off very cold, hitting .177/.279/.293 in the first half.  But then got really hot, hitting .303/.376/.500 in the second half.  I still think injuries caused most of his problems in the beginning of the year and if he remains healthy next year, it could mean a breakout year.  

1B Prince Fielder

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	562	0.301	0.413	0.543	34	100	1	98	88
2013 Actual	624	0.279	0.362	0.457	25	106	1	75	117

Prince Fielder failed to hit 30 HR since his first full season in 2006.  Fielder's batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage were all down from a year ago, and there's little indication that he will bounce back next year.  His decline started earlier than I anticipated. 

2B Omar Infante

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	553	0.269	0.311	0.380	7	50	5	34	66
2013 Actual	453	0.318	0.345	0.450	10	51	5	20	44

Omar Infante had his best season to date, with a career high 117 wRC+ and 113 OPS+ over a full season.  At 31 years old, it's hard to imagine him duplicating this season, but it's also hard to imagine the Tigers not giving him a qualifying offer with the lack of 2B depth in Free Agency.  I'm glad I was wrong about him, although it wouldn't surprise me if he hit closer to my prediction in 2014.  

SS Jhonny Peralta

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.241	0.305	0.380	13	66	1	48	105
2013 Actual	409	0.303	0.358	0.457	11	55	3	35	98

The Biogenesis incident aside, Jhonny Peralta had a nice season in 2013 that more resembled his 2011 season than the 2012 season I predicted.  Although that came with a .374 BABIP, so his season could be described as "fluky."  

3B Miguel Cabrera

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	612	0.333	0.397	0.601	39	122	3	65	99
2013 Actual	555	0.348	0.442	0.636	44	137	3	90	94

The biggest difference between my prediction and what Miguel Cabrera did was the 13.8% walk rate, up from 9.5% from 2012.  He was able to get it back to previous levels as in 2010 it was 13.7% and in 2011 it was 15.7%.  Unfortunately, his injury caused him to only hit .278/.395/.333 in the last month of the season with only 1 HR and he miss several games in the 2nd half of the season.  While his 187 OPS+ and 192 wRC+ were the best mark of his career, it's does make me wonder how much better they'd be if he was able to hit for better than a .055 ISO the last month of the season.

LF Andy Dirks

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	410	0.276	0.324	0.422	11	48	5	27	70
2013 Actual	438	0.256	0.323	0.363	9	37	7	42	84

After hitting .322/.370/.487 in a half a year worth of games in 2012, I think several people were hopeful for a great breakout season from Andy Dirks that just didn't happen.  Even my conservative prediction wasn't conservative enough, expect for the walk rate, which exceeded my expectation.  

CF Austin Jackson

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	592	0.280	0.356	0.432	12	51	20	67	154
2013 Actual	552	0.272	0.337	0.417	12	49	8	52	129

A truly disappointed season from Austin Jackson that ended up with him batting 8th during the last few games of the ALCS, which surprisingly made him start hitting again.  His .333 BABIP seemed pedestrian compared to the .396 mark he put up in his rookie season and the .371 mark he put up in 2012.  But the biggest surprise might be the stolen bases, which have gone down every year since stealing 27 in his rookie year.  I would go out on a limb and say he'll never reach 20 SB again, but given his age and a different managerial strategy next year, he could get close to 30 again.  Or he might only get 5 next year.  He's just that streaky of a player.  

RF Torii Hunter

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	557	0.273	0.332	0.397	14	72	5	46	129
2013 Actual	606	0.304	0.334	0.465	17	84	3	26	113

Torii Hunter found his power stroke again, at least back to his 2011 level.  After having a .167 ISO in 2011, it plummeted to .139 in 2012, but then shot right back up to .161 in 2013.  Hunter is a vastly different player than he was when he was younger.  While he never hit .300 during his first 13 full years of playing, he has now had back-to-back seasons of hitting over .300.  But that has come at the expense of a lower walk rate, which has reached rock bottom at only 4% in 2013.  It was at 6.5% in 2012 and as high as the mid-9% range in 2009-2011.    

DH Victor Martinez

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.310	0.360	0.445	12	75	0	43	52
2013 Actual	605	0.301	0.355	0.430	14	83	0	54	62

Finally a close prediction!  Like Avila, Victor Martinez started off slow, hitting .258/.314/.380 in the first half, but then heated right up, hitting .361/.413/.500 in the 2nd half.  After having the whole 2012 season off due to an injury, it's not that surprising that it took him awhile to get back in the groove.  When it was all said and done, his numbers were very similar to what I expected, except maybe a bit more playing time.

SP Justin Verlander

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	240 1/3	18-7	2.77	1.036	235	59
2013 Actual	218 1/3	13-12	3.46	1.315	217	75

After having two consecutive seasons of sub-3.00 ERA in 2011 and 2012, Justin Verlander reverted back to a mid-3.00 ERA in 2013 that he had in most of his previous seasons (except for his disappointed 2008 season).  The biggest surprise might have been his durability.  After averaging 7.38 IP/start in 2011 and 7.22 IP/start in 2012, Verlander only averaged 6.42 IP/start in 2013.  It is possible that he was holding back during the regular season so that he would be stronger in the post-season, in which he had a 0.39 ERA and averaged 7.67 innings in 3 post-season starts. 

SP Max Scherzer

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	196 1/3	17-7	3.39	1.228	206	56
2013 Actual	214 1/3	21-3	2.90	0.970	240	56

I anticipated a breakout year for Max Scherzer, but he took it one step further with a Cy Young worthy season.  It's unfortunate that he may become too expensive to keep.  

SP Anibal Sanchez

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	190	10-11	4.07	1.411	149	67
2013 Actual	182	14-8	2.57	1.154	202	54

My biggest fail.  I predicted a lack-luster year for Anibal Sanchez and all he does is win the ERA title.  How does a guy have a higher K/9 in the DH, American League (9.1) than in the DH-less, National League (7.7)?  I don't think Jeff Jones gets enough credit.  

SP Doug Fister

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	208	14-8	3.20	1.125	173	46
2013 Actual	208 2/3	14-9	3.67	1.308	159	44

Thank God for Doug Fister's consistency; at least I got one of the pitchers mostly right.  The big difference being 0.47 in ERA and 14 strikeouts.

SP Rick Porcello

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	189	11-12	4.00	1.270	122	43
2013 Actual	177	13-8	4.32	1.282	142	42

Rick Porcello made great strides in his development this year as I mention here.  The biggest improvement being his strikeout rate, which reached over 7 K/9 for the first time this year.