Reevaluating Brayan Pena

In a previous post, I mentioned that Brayan Pena shouldn't be a starter.  At the time, Pena was hitting .275/.296/.412 and I tried to use logic, reason and stats to show that he wouldn't be able to keep it up.  Since then, Pena has hit .321/.345/.421 and has made me look like an idiot.  Time to reevaluate.  Why is Pena having so much success this year as opposed to previous years?

The first set of stats are batted ball data, both from FanGraphs and Baseball-reference:

		FanGraphs			Baseball-reference
Year	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%	LD%	GB%	FB%
2010	0.295	16.3%	45.0%	38.8%	15.5%	45.7%	38.8%
2011	0.261	22.9%	44.3%	32.8%	20.4%	44.8%	34.8%
2012	0.253	24.6%	48.2%	27.2%	19.9%	48.7%	31.4%
2013	0.325	19.2%	52.9%	27.9%	19.8%	52.9%	27.3%
Career	0.276	21.0%	49.1%	29.9%	19.1%	49.8%	31.0%

While before Pena had an inflated ground ball rate, now, while still high, it's more in-line of what he's done in previous seasons and his career.  His BABIP seems inflated, though.

Now plate discipline numbers:

Year	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%
2010	31.4%	64.5%	48.5%	65.6%	90.5%	82.7%	51.7%
2011	28.7%	61.0%	45.1%	70.4%	93.9%	89.4%	50.6%
2012	31.9%	60.4%	46.5%	76.7%	94.5%	88.5%	51.1%
2013	28.6%	62.5%	45.5%	73.2%	95.0%	88.1%	49.7%
Career	30.2%	61.3%	45.7%	76.5%	93.7%	88.0%	49.8%

Not much difference at all.  His 2.9% walk rate is the lowest it's ever been in the 5 years he's been in the majors full-time, which could be reflected by the 3.5% decrease in O-Contact%.   His 10.3% strikeout rate is in-line of what he did the last 2 years.  He tends to put a lot of balls in play with that 88.1% contact rate.  

Brooks Baseball has a breakdown on the different pitches, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and career numbers.

4-Seam Fastball:

Year	Count	AB	BB	AVG
2010	290	61	6	0.213
2011	440	91	6	0.319
2012	327	84	4	0.310
2013	383	65	4	0.308
Career	1681	363	30	0.289

Aside from 2010, Pena has been pretty consistent in hitting the fastball.  This data shouldn't be taken as 100% accurate, though.  From what it looks like below, some 4-seam fastballs might have been misclassified as sinkers in 2010.

Sinker:

Year	Count	AB	BB	AVG
2010	136	33	2	0.455
2011	209	51	1	0.196
2012	197	48	1	0.208
2013	155	46	1	0.217
Career	890	228	6	0.237

Except for 2010, Pena has always struggled to hit sinkers, and that trend has continued in 2013.  He has, however, improved in all the other pitches.

Change:

Year	Count	AB	BB	AVG
2010	77	28	1	0.179
2011	153	46	2	0.217
2012	114	37	2	0.270
2013	102	24	0	0.500
Career	548	165	6	0.285

Slider:

Year	Count	AB	BB	AVG
2010	90	22	0	0.227
2011	97	21	3	0.191
2012	96	23	3	0.261
2013	91	22	0	0.318
Career	444	107	6	0.243

Curve:

Year	Count	AB	BB	AVG
2010	57	12	0	0.250
2011	96	23	1	0.174
2012	66	20	0	0.200
2013	69	16	0	0.313
Career	359	90	2	0.278

It could be that he's recognizing off-speed/breaking pitches better than he has before and that's causing greater success.  Although, we are talking about small samples, so the possibility of it all being a fluke still exists.  In the meantime, Pena has made great use of his playing time in the absence of Alex Avila.  Offensively anyway; defense is a whole other story.  

Streaking Tigers: Current Hot and Cold Hitting Steaks

A baseball season is a marathon, not a race.  Players go through many ups and downs throughout the season with the hopes that everything evens out by the end.  Here are three current hot and three current cold streaks as we head to the final 2 months of the season:

Hot Streaks:

Torii Hunter:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/16 - 7/31	161	0.358	0.366	0.629	9	28	4	0.378

Many people expected Hunter to regress some after the season he had in 2012, but he really hasn't. In a full season in 2012, Hunter hit .313/.365/.451 with a 130 wRC+ and so far in 2013, he has hit .316/.350/.481 with a 126 wRC+. His BABIP has fallen from the .389 mark he put up last year, as expected but it's still pretty high at .359.  This suggests that 2012 wasn't as big of a fluke as first indicated and that he has really changed his approach.  His walk rate continues to drop, at 4.2% in 2013 and only 2.5% during this hot streak.  Shockingly, he has gained some power that he lost last year with a .271 ISO during this streak.    

Victor Martinez:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/22 - 7/31	148	0.365	0.412	0.547	4	15	11	0.390

After missing the entire 2012 season due to an ACL injury, V-Mart's 2013 season started out slowly.  He only hit .221/.290/.274 in the month of April but gradually started improving as the season went on.  He's unlikely to continue hitting at a .390 BABIP pace but it looks like he's back to form.  With 9 HR on the year, he's primed to surpass the 12 he hit in 2011.

Alex Avila:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/16 - 7/31	81	0.286	0.375	0.486	3	21	9	0.370

It wasn't long ago when Tiger fans wanted Brayan Pena to take over primary catching duties (some probably still do!).  However, Alex Avila has started to heat up and his batting average has reached .200 for the first time since May 10th.  Similar to 2011, his BABIP is high (.366 in 2011 and .370 during this streak) and he's hitting for power (.211 ISO in 2011 and .200 during this streak).  Just like he wasn't able to sustain his numbers of 2011 into 2012, I don't expect his current hitting streak to continue, but he's not as bad as he was to start the season.  If Jhonny Peralta gets suspended, it should be Avila that moves to the 6th spot in the lineup.    

Cold Streaks:

Prince Fielder:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/20 - 7/31	156	0.220	0.295	0.348	5	24	15	0.232

Fielder started the year right where he left off last year with a OPS above or around .900 for most of the first half, but his OPS has fallen to under .800 at .795 on the year.  This streak has cause some Tiger fans to question his big contract as he's not performing up to expectations.  He's on pace to have 26 HR and a 118 wRC+, which would be his worst year since 2006 when he hit 28 HR and had a 110 wRC+.  At 29 years old, he shouldn't be on the decline yet, so hopefully he has another hot streak in him to finish the season.

Austin Jackson:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/26 - 7/31	146	0.208	0.283	0.362	3	39	13	0.270

It's unusual to see Jackson's BABIP this low.  He's currently at .332 on the season, which is the lowest he's put up in a season and below his career mark of .364.  Jackson seems to have long hot and cold streaks, so it's possible Jackson has another hot streak in him before the season is over.  It's important for a leadoff hitter like Jackson to get on base ahead of the big hitters, so hopefully he can finish the season strong.

Jose Iglesias:

Date	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	K	BB	BABIP
6/26 - 7/30	108	0.216	0.250	0.225	0	15	2	0.250

The newest Tiger had a career minor league stat line of .257/.307/.314.  So when he was hitting over .400 for the first half, many people weren't buying it and he has since came back down to Earth.  Unfortunately, what he's done during this cold streak is what we can expect for the rest of the season (if only slightly better).  He is still young, so there is still room for improvement as he reaches his prime years.  The Tigers acquired him for his Gold Glove potential anyway.