Has Miguel Cabrera Peaked?

In 2013, Miguel Cabrera had an amazing year, posting a 192 wRC+.  This is the best mark he's ever put up, 15 points higher than his 2nd best season in 2011.  Now that Cabrera is going to be on the other side of 30, it has me wondering if this is going to be the best year of his career?  Did we just witness the best that Cabrera has to offer?

The following chart is taken from the Hardball Times by Mitchel Lichtman in a 2009 article.  It shows the normal aging curve of MLB players:

The chart shows that most players have their best seasons around age 26-29 and then start their decline.  Cabrera is going to have his age-31 season in 2014.  

Using the tools at FanGraphs, I filtered the table to show who had reached 190 wRC+ over the last 30 years.  Only six other players have done it along with Cabrera: Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire and Jason Giambi.  Out of those names, only Bonds and McGwire had their 190+ wRC+ seasons after the age of 30.  Both (along with Giambi) have been linked to steroids, so their numbers could be misleading.  

The two "clean" players, Thomas and Bagwell both had their best season when they were 26, both in 1994 with the same 205 wRC+ (and both won MVPs that season).  Here is how Cabrera compares with them, using wRC+:

Age	Miguel Cabrera	Jeff Bagwell	Frank Thomas
20	106
21	129
22	146
23	153	138	179
24	142	133	175
25	129	145	170
26	143	205	205
27	171	140	168
28	177	173	179
29	166	163	126
30	192	162	126
31		166	160
32		153
33		143	119
34		138	147
35		131	157
36		118
37			139
38			127

And in chart form:

I eliminated all the years that didn't have large enough PA samples.  Now, this isn't a perfect comparison.  Bagwell and Thomas didn't have their first full years until they were 23, while Cabrera was 20.  Bagwell and Thomas also had their peak seasons four years younger than Cabrera was in 2013.  It could be possible that Cabrera won't age the same way and he'll have another season just as good or even better than 2013.  However, that would be a very unique case for someone that hasn't been linked to steroids in recent years.  

There are also other factors, such as his groin injury and lineup protection (if you believe that sort of thing exists).  This also isn't to say that Cabrera won't have another great season.  Even if he regresses back to his 2010-2012 levels, that's still MVP-worthy.  The question still remains, though, will he have another year as great as his 2013 season?  The answer is probably not. 

This is just something to think about as I'm preparing for my 2014 predictions.  

Joe Nathan Signing Reaction

The Tigers have signed Joe Nathan to a 2 year/$20 million deal to fill the closer role.  Last year, the Tigers decided not to make this a priority which resulted in a roller-coaster ride of events:

• Pre-Spring Training - Bruce Rondon, while not officially named the closer, was the most likely candidate.
• March 28th - Tigers option Rondon to AAA, go with a "Closer by Committee."
• April 1st - Phil Coke records a save on opening day, retiring the last 2 batters of the game.
• April 3rd - Phil Coke records a blown save, allowing 2 runs in the 9th.
• April 4th - Jose Valverde signs a $2 million deal, reports to Lakeland.
• April 5th - Drew Smyly records a perfect 4-inning save.  
• April 10th and April 12th - Tigers get blown saves by Octavio Dotel and Drew Smyly before it reaches the 9th inning.
• April 17th - Joaquin Benoit pitches a scoreless 14th inning for his first save of the year.
• April 24th - Jose Valverde gets called up and records his first save of 2013.  
• April 24th - June 12th - Valverde is the primary closer, recording 9 saves, 3 blown saves and a 4.15 ERA.  
• June 16th - Joaquin Benoit records a save as it looks like it's back to Closer by Committee.
• June 17th - Drew Smyly records a perfect 3-inning save. 
• June 21st - Jose Valverde DFA.  He would accept a AAA assignment and later would be outright released.  He ended up with a 5.59 ERA for the Tigers in 2013.
• June 28th - End of Season - Joaquin Benoit is the primary closer.  During this time he recorded 20 saves and 2 blown saves with a 2.08 ERA.  

With Joaquin Benoit leaving as a Free Agent and some money freed up by trading away Prince Fielder and Doug Fister, the Tigers signed the best Free Agent closer available.  After having Tommy John surgery and missing all of 2010, Nathan had a mediocre 2011, but pitched really well the last 2 years, similar to his career stats since becoming a full-time reliever in 2003:

	IP	SV	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP	xFIP
2003-2009	497 2/3	246	2.04	0.95	10.87	2.77	2.56	3.12
2012	64 1/3	37	2.80	1.06	10.91	1.82	2.78	2.60
2013	64 2/3	43	1.39	0.90	10.16	3.06	2.26	3.27

The Tigers now have a reliable closer and shouldn't have a problem with the 9th inning over the next 2 years.  What's worrisome is that I'm not totally convinced that the Tigers are a better team with Drew Smyly in the rotation and Joe Nathan in the bullpen as opposed to Doug Fister in the rotation and Drew Smyly in the bullpen.  

Doug Fister Trade Reaction: Dombrowski Gets 50 Cents on the Dollar

Two and a half years ago, Dave Dombrowski traded Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells and minor leaguer Francisco Martinez for Doug Fister.  Fister then appreciated in value by pitching to the tune of a  3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.20 FIP, 3.30 xFIP and a 10.4 fWAR in over 440 innings pitched for the Tigers.  Dombrowski then flipped Fister for Robbie Ray, Ian Krol and Steve Lombardozzi - the exact same value that he gave up two and a half years ago.  In terms of economic value, Dombrowski got essentially 50 cents on the dollar.

A look at what the Tigers received:

LH SP Robbie Ray

Ray was the centerpiece of the trade.  He was ranked as the #5 prospect in the Nationals organization according to Baseball America and might even be ranked higher in the Tigers' system.  Ray has shown to have good strikeout totals, 9.1 K/9 career in the minors and a 10.1 K/9 between A-ball and AA in 2013.  However, his control needs work with a minor league career 4.0 BB/9 and a 3.9 mark in 2013.  He doesn't allow many home runs, though, a 0.8 HR/9 mark at both his career minor league total and in 2013.  This adds up to a 4.29 career minor league ERA and a 3.94 career minor league FIP.  

Those are solid numbers, but not spectacular.  Ray has never ranked in the top 100 prospect list by Baseball America and will likely fall short again this year.  He is a bit of a gamble and an unknown.  He could end up being a middle of the rotation starter or end up being a bullpen piece.  He's far from a guarantee and that has many Tiger fans feeling uneasy about this trade.

2013 Stats:

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	FIP
A+	84	3.11	1.20	10.7	4.4	0.273	3.82
AA	58	3.72	1.33	9.3	3.3	0.317	3.42
2013 Total	142	3.36	1.25	10.1	3.9	0.293	3.66

LH RP Ian Krol

Krol spent part of 2013 at AA, part at AAA and part in the major leagues.  Put simply, he's a LOOGY and will likely take Drew Smyly's spot in the bullpen.  According to Minor League Central, Krol had a .215 BAA and a .586 OPS against vs. lefties in the minor leagues and a .257 BAA and a .724 OPS against vs. righties (2011-2013).  At the major league level, he has a .220 BAA and a .593 OPS against vs. lefties and a .304 BAA and a .957 OPS against vs. righties.  Keep him away from right-handed hitters and he should be a solid bullpen piece for the Tigers.

2013 Stats:

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	FIP
AA	26	0.69	0.81	10.0	2.4	0.210	2.51
AAA	3 2/3	4.91	0.82	17.2	2.5	0.333	0.20
MLB	27 1/3	3.95	1.32	7.2	2.6	0.280	4.69

  

Steve Lombardozzi

The Tigers now have a Ramon Santiago replacement - who can't seem to play shortstop very well.  Lombardozzi will likely fill in as a backup 2B, 3B and LF and hit like he is a backup player.  Yeah, nothing really to get excited for here.

Major League Stats:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
2011	32	0.194	0.219	0.226	3.1%	12.5%	0.200	18
2012	416	0.273	0.317	0.354	4.6%	11.1%	0.296	83
2013	307	0.259	0.278	0.338	2.6%	11.1%	0.269	67
MLB Total	755	0.264	0.297	0.342	3.7%	11.1%	0.281	74

The domino effect of this trade allows Drew Smyly to go back to the starting rotation, a role in which he probably should have never left, but there simply wasn't room last year.  It also frees up future obligations they would've had to give Fister over the next two years of arbitration.  Payroll that they now can spread out to upgrade at closer, left field, third base or to give to Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer for long-term contracts.

However, compared to recent trades of top starting pitchers, the Tigers package seems underwhelming.  Dave Cameron of FanGraphs shows that Fister is a top 25 pitcher according to traditional-based stats and a top 10 pitcher according to more advanced metrics over the last 3 years.  Compared to recent trades of James Shields, Matt Garza, Jake Peavy and R.A. Dickey, the Tigers got the lowest of value in return for Doug Fister.  

A very good argument could be made that Doug Fister is the most underrated starting pitcher in the game and he is continually getting underrated by the market.  Is this really the best package Dombrowski could get for Fister?  The Tigers are a worse team now than they were yesterday, and that's not very hopeful for a team with World Series aspirations.