Where Have All the Strikeouts Gone?

Over the past two games, the Tigers' starters have only 3 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings.  Anibal Sanchez had 2 in yesterday's game and David Price only had 1 two days ago.  This is a microcosm of the whole year as the Tigers' starters are only averaging a little over 6 K/9.  Remember when the Tigers starting rotation was regularly striking out batters on a daily basis?  Here's how the ranked in recent years:

Year	K/9	MLB Rank
2012	8.19	2nd
2013	8.63	1st
2014	7.68	9th
2015	6.02	27th

In 2013, the Tigers pitching staff as a whole set a MLB record with 1,428 strikeouts helped by 3 starting pitchers who had 200+ K's each, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez.   Of course Scherzer is now gone along with Doug Fister and Rick Porcello.  Verlander has been on the DL all year.  The only one remaining from the 2013 rotation is Sanchez, who is now in a rotation consisting of David Price, Shane Greene, Alfredo Simon and Kyle Lobstein.  

Anibal Sanchez is the only member of the starting rotation who currently has a K/9 of over 7 at 7.74, which isn't much different than his career mark of 7.92.  Sanchez has had two big strikeout years, a 9.26 K/9 in 2011 and a 9.99 K/9 in 2013.  Sanchez has been struggling this year, mainly due to giving up the long ball.  He has given up 6 home runs already this year, which is 2 more than he gave up all of last year.  

David Price, who usually is a strikeout machine, only has a 6.41 K/9 so far this year, which is by far the lowest of his career and almost 2 K/9 below his career 8.38 K/9 mark.  Last year, Price led MLB with 271 strikeouts. So far the lack of strikeouts hasn't effected him much as his 3.30 ERA is exactly the same as his 3.30 FIP and isn't much different than his 3.26 ERA that he posted last year.  

Shane Greene surprised everyone by striking out over a batter per inning last year at 9.27 K/9 in his shortened rookie year last year.  He had an 8.15 K/9 in 562 minor league innings, so it was expected that he'd have an above average strikeout rate in the majors.  Along with a decent FIP and SIERA, it was expected that Greene would be decent going forward.  However, he's only at 5.56 K/9 so far this year and his ERA has suffered at 5.56.  

Alfredo Simon was already a questionable acquisition among Tiger fans before he even threw one pitch in a Tiger uniform.  However, his strikeout rate isn't much different than it was last year (5.82 in 2014 and 5.65 in 2015) and his ERA is exactly the same at 3.44.  

Out of the 6 regular pitchers who started games for the Tigers last year, only one had a K/9 below 6, Rick Porcello.  This year the Tigers have 3: Green, Simon and Kyle Lobstein.  Lobstein has held his own filling in for the injured Justin Verlander with an ERA of only 3.00.  However, his strikeout rate of only 4.09 K/9 leaves a lot to be desired.  His K/9 ranks 6th lowest in all of MLB, (right ahead of former Tiger Doug Fister who is currently at 4.06 for the Nationals).  This is way below his minor league mark of 7.79 K/9.  

This is cause for concern for the Tigers as there's usually an inverse correlation between strikeouts and ERA.  The Tigers' rotation currently stand with a 4.15 ERA, which ranks 17th in MLB.  However, their SIERA ranks 25th at 4.24.  Whether this is a change in philosophy on the pitching coach's part to have these pitchers pitch to contact more or just random variation, this isn't a good sign going forward.  The best thing to happen would be if some of these pitchers would put up strikeout rates that they are capable of.  

2015 Preseason Prediction #4 - Anibal Sanchez

The most frustrating thing about Anibal Sanchez is his inability to stay healthy.  He's been on the disabled list 3 times since the Tigers acquired him and only pitched 126 innings in 2014.  During his time with the Tigers, Sanchez has a great ERA (3.08) with an even better FIP (2.75) and has been one of the most underrated pitchers in the league.  

Looking at his trends is a tad confusing:

Year	K/9	BB/9	HR/FB
2011	9.26	2.93	10.4%
2012	7.68	2.21	10.7%
2013	9.99	2.67	5.8%
2014	7.29	2.14	3.1%

The walk rate is the easiest to predict, it has been under 3.0 for four straight years therefore it'll probably be under 3.0 again in 2015.  

The strikeout rate has an odd trend; the every other year trend would say that Sanchez is primed to have a strikeout per 9 of around 9.0 again.  However, the "every other year" thing hardly has any substance.  According to Brooks Baseball, here is Anibal Sanchez' breakdown of strikeouts by pitch type:

Year	Hard	Breaking	Off-Speed
2011	18.0%	35.6%	33.7%
2012	15.5%	24.1%	30.1%
2013	24.4%	34.1%	33.3%
2014	24.9%	15.8%	24.0%

It looks like the biggest difference is in his breaking pitch, which was cut almost in half from a year ago.  If Sanchez is able to get that rate back up to around 35% again, he should have a K/9 of around 9.0 again.  However, the effectiveness of his slider and curve wasn't a major issue last year, so the need of getting this number back up may not be a pressing one.  The ability to stay healthy might also effect his strikeout rates.  

Finally, the most bizarre stat is his home run to fly ball ratio.  This stat usually stabilizes, which is why the xFIP stat was created.  FIP uses the individual pitcher's HR rate (along with strikeouts and walks), but xFIP substitutes this stat for the league average HR/FB ratio, which was 9.5% in 2014.  The thinking is that the pitcher has very little control in this stat, therefore when predicting future ERA, xFIP is better because it attempts to take "luck" away from this stat.  HR/FB ratio has only been tracked since 2002, but it is usually around 10%.  

In Anibal Sanchez' case, this stat has been below average for 2 years now after being right around "normal" for the 2 years prior.  Now, Sanchez only pitched 126 innings last year, so maybe he didn't pitch enough for this stat to stabilize.  Conventional wisdom says that this stat will not stay low for 2015.  

Sanchez' xFIP was 3.56 last year compared to a 2.71 FIP.  SIERA, which is another ERA estimator that uses batted ball data, was 3.64 last year.  Therefore, Sanchez' FIP was probably overrated last year.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	163	11-9	3.76	1.21	143	42
CAIRO	156	8-9	3.06	1.21	141	41
ZiPS	152	11-6	3.43	1.20	138	40
RotoChamp	149	11-6	3.02	1.14	138	39
CBS Sports	195	13-9	3.60	1.19	186	48
ESPN	184	13 W	3.67	1.20	165	50
MLB.com	191	13-8	3.53	1.15	161	46
FanGraphs' Fans (10)	163	12-8	3.45	1.18	149	43

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2014 Prediction	191	14-7	3.39	1.246	200	60
2014 Actual	126	8-5	3.43	1.095	102	30
2015 Prediction	173 2/3	13-7	3.68	1.198	144	45

Fantasy Impact:  According to Mock Draft Central, Anibal Sanchez has an average draft position of about 156.  That would be in the 13th round in a typical 12-team league.  Given his injury concerns and fluctuating strikeout rate, this may be too high.  I love pitching that gives me strikeouts and the fact that it is not guaranteed that Sanchez will have a 9.0 K/9 has me leery on him, especially if he is only going to give about 160-170 innings.  The HR/FB rate also scares me since that's a sign that his ERA could jump.   

2014 Preseason Prediction #6 - Anibal Sanchez

Anibal Sanchez had a career year last year, with a 2.57 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 0.4 HR/9.  All except the walk rate were career bests.  He won the American League ERA title and also led the league in HR/9.  He was good enough to finish 4th in Cy Young voting despite only making 29 starts and having just 182 IP.  Just like with Max Scherzer, what has Sanchez done different this year and can he repeat it in 2014?  

The biggest difference that led to his success was an increased strikeout rate and a lower HR rate:

	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP
2011	24.3%	7.7%	2.4%	3.67	3.35
2012	20.4%	5.9%	2.4%	3.86	3.53
2013	27.1%	7.2%	1.2%	2.57	2.39

Sanchez seemed to  not suffer from any BABIP luck and his batted ball data did not change much from recent years (data taken from Baseball-Reference):

	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	0.317	21.9%	44.4%	33.7%
2012	0.313	20.6%	47.1%	32.3%
2013	0.309	23.6%	46.4%	30.0%

Pitch usage data from Brooks Baseball:

	4-Seamer	Sinker	Change-up	Slider	Curveball
2011	44.2%	9.3%	17.5%	21.4%	7.6%
2012	37.6%	9.8%	19.9%	22.8%	10.0%
2013	34.9%	12.0%	24.1%	22.1%	6.8%

 

There is a noticable trend in the decreasing amount of 4-Seam fastballs and an increasing numbers in change-ups.  The combination used in 2013 made his 4-Seam fastball a lot more effective:

4-Seamer	BAA	K%
2011	0.262	17.6%
2012	0.336	14.3%
2013	0.219	30.5%

Sanchez has also changed his release point on his fastball, and it added a couple of MPH.  If he can continue this for 2014, then he might be able to come close to matching his 2014 numbers.  

I do think his home run rate was a fluke and he'll go back to around a 10.5% HR/FB ratio that he showed in 2011-2012 instead of the 5.8% HR/FB he displayed in 2013.  I also think his strikeout rate will fall slightly.  Therefore, I don't think he'll lead the league in ERA again in 2014.

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	189	14-10	3.63	1.21	176	54
Oliver	191	13-8	3.49	1.24	184	53
ZiPS	184 1/3	-	3.52	1.23	186	52
RotoChamp	194	13-10	3.29	1.23	189	56
CBS Sports	195	14-9	3.18	1.21	210	61
ESPN	194	15 W	3.34	1.19	195	53
MLB.com	190	15-9	3.17	1.19	200	55
FanGraphs' Fans (24)	193	14-8	3.21	1.20	191	55

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	190	10-11	4.07	1.411	149	67
2013 Actual	182	14-8	2.57	1.154	202	54
2014 Prediction	191	14-7	3.39	1.246	200	60

Fantasy Impact:  Anibal Sanchez would be a very good #2 starter for any fantasy team (he wouldn't even be that bad of a #1 on some teams).  Mock Draft Central currently has him going in the 10th round.  This is very good value for him, and I'd even grab him a couple of rounds sooner.  

2013 Preseason Predictions Evaluated

C Alex Avila:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	399	0.241	0.344	0.414	13	59	2	63	112
2013 Actual	330	0.227	0.317	0.376	11	47	0	44	112

Alex Avila started off very cold, hitting .177/.279/.293 in the first half.  But then got really hot, hitting .303/.376/.500 in the second half.  I still think injuries caused most of his problems in the beginning of the year and if he remains healthy next year, it could mean a breakout year.  

1B Prince Fielder

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	562	0.301	0.413	0.543	34	100	1	98	88
2013 Actual	624	0.279	0.362	0.457	25	106	1	75	117

Prince Fielder failed to hit 30 HR since his first full season in 2006.  Fielder's batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage were all down from a year ago, and there's little indication that he will bounce back next year.  His decline started earlier than I anticipated. 

2B Omar Infante

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	553	0.269	0.311	0.380	7	50	5	34	66
2013 Actual	453	0.318	0.345	0.450	10	51	5	20	44

Omar Infante had his best season to date, with a career high 117 wRC+ and 113 OPS+ over a full season.  At 31 years old, it's hard to imagine him duplicating this season, but it's also hard to imagine the Tigers not giving him a qualifying offer with the lack of 2B depth in Free Agency.  I'm glad I was wrong about him, although it wouldn't surprise me if he hit closer to my prediction in 2014.  

SS Jhonny Peralta

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.241	0.305	0.380	13	66	1	48	105
2013 Actual	409	0.303	0.358	0.457	11	55	3	35	98

The Biogenesis incident aside, Jhonny Peralta had a nice season in 2013 that more resembled his 2011 season than the 2012 season I predicted.  Although that came with a .374 BABIP, so his season could be described as "fluky."  

3B Miguel Cabrera

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	612	0.333	0.397	0.601	39	122	3	65	99
2013 Actual	555	0.348	0.442	0.636	44	137	3	90	94

The biggest difference between my prediction and what Miguel Cabrera did was the 13.8% walk rate, up from 9.5% from 2012.  He was able to get it back to previous levels as in 2010 it was 13.7% and in 2011 it was 15.7%.  Unfortunately, his injury caused him to only hit .278/.395/.333 in the last month of the season with only 1 HR and he miss several games in the 2nd half of the season.  While his 187 OPS+ and 192 wRC+ were the best mark of his career, it's does make me wonder how much better they'd be if he was able to hit for better than a .055 ISO the last month of the season.

LF Andy Dirks

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	410	0.276	0.324	0.422	11	48	5	27	70
2013 Actual	438	0.256	0.323	0.363	9	37	7	42	84

After hitting .322/.370/.487 in a half a year worth of games in 2012, I think several people were hopeful for a great breakout season from Andy Dirks that just didn't happen.  Even my conservative prediction wasn't conservative enough, expect for the walk rate, which exceeded my expectation.  

CF Austin Jackson

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	592	0.280	0.356	0.432	12	51	20	67	154
2013 Actual	552	0.272	0.337	0.417	12	49	8	52	129

A truly disappointed season from Austin Jackson that ended up with him batting 8th during the last few games of the ALCS, which surprisingly made him start hitting again.  His .333 BABIP seemed pedestrian compared to the .396 mark he put up in his rookie season and the .371 mark he put up in 2012.  But the biggest surprise might be the stolen bases, which have gone down every year since stealing 27 in his rookie year.  I would go out on a limb and say he'll never reach 20 SB again, but given his age and a different managerial strategy next year, he could get close to 30 again.  Or he might only get 5 next year.  He's just that streaky of a player.  

RF Torii Hunter

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	557	0.273	0.332	0.397	14	72	5	46	129
2013 Actual	606	0.304	0.334	0.465	17	84	3	26	113

Torii Hunter found his power stroke again, at least back to his 2011 level.  After having a .167 ISO in 2011, it plummeted to .139 in 2012, but then shot right back up to .161 in 2013.  Hunter is a vastly different player than he was when he was younger.  While he never hit .300 during his first 13 full years of playing, he has now had back-to-back seasons of hitting over .300.  But that has come at the expense of a lower walk rate, which has reached rock bottom at only 4% in 2013.  It was at 6.5% in 2012 and as high as the mid-9% range in 2009-2011.    

DH Victor Martinez

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.310	0.360	0.445	12	75	0	43	52
2013 Actual	605	0.301	0.355	0.430	14	83	0	54	62

Finally a close prediction!  Like Avila, Victor Martinez started off slow, hitting .258/.314/.380 in the first half, but then heated right up, hitting .361/.413/.500 in the 2nd half.  After having the whole 2012 season off due to an injury, it's not that surprising that it took him awhile to get back in the groove.  When it was all said and done, his numbers were very similar to what I expected, except maybe a bit more playing time.

SP Justin Verlander

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	240 1/3	18-7	2.77	1.036	235	59
2013 Actual	218 1/3	13-12	3.46	1.315	217	75

After having two consecutive seasons of sub-3.00 ERA in 2011 and 2012, Justin Verlander reverted back to a mid-3.00 ERA in 2013 that he had in most of his previous seasons (except for his disappointed 2008 season).  The biggest surprise might have been his durability.  After averaging 7.38 IP/start in 2011 and 7.22 IP/start in 2012, Verlander only averaged 6.42 IP/start in 2013.  It is possible that he was holding back during the regular season so that he would be stronger in the post-season, in which he had a 0.39 ERA and averaged 7.67 innings in 3 post-season starts. 

SP Max Scherzer

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	196 1/3	17-7	3.39	1.228	206	56
2013 Actual	214 1/3	21-3	2.90	0.970	240	56

I anticipated a breakout year for Max Scherzer, but he took it one step further with a Cy Young worthy season.  It's unfortunate that he may become too expensive to keep.  

SP Anibal Sanchez

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	190	10-11	4.07	1.411	149	67
2013 Actual	182	14-8	2.57	1.154	202	54

My biggest fail.  I predicted a lack-luster year for Anibal Sanchez and all he does is win the ERA title.  How does a guy have a higher K/9 in the DH, American League (9.1) than in the DH-less, National League (7.7)?  I don't think Jeff Jones gets enough credit.  

SP Doug Fister

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	208	14-8	3.20	1.125	173	46
2013 Actual	208 2/3	14-9	3.67	1.308	159	44

Thank God for Doug Fister's consistency; at least I got one of the pitchers mostly right.  The big difference being 0.47 in ERA and 14 strikeouts.

SP Rick Porcello

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	189	11-12	4.00	1.270	122	43
2013 Actual	177	13-8	4.32	1.282	142	42

Rick Porcello made great strides in his development this year as I mention here.  The biggest improvement being his strikeout rate, which reached over 7 K/9 for the first time this year.