Is Rick Porcello an All-Star?

Rick Porcello just finished back-to-back complete game shutouts, giving him career best stats in ERA (3.12), WHIP (1.13) and batting average against (.241).  The 2014 all-stars will be revealed on Sunday, so Porcello's stats are complete; he has no more starts before the rosters will be announced.  There are only so many spots available and some pitchers are having just as good of a season or better than Porcello, therefore it isn't really a slam dunk he'll make it.  Also, every team must be represented and past performance could also be a factor (Porcello has never been an all-star before).  So how good of a chance does Porcello have in making it this year?  

There are usually 7-8 starting pitchers selected for the all-star game, with 5 of them selected by the player's vote.  The other players are chosen by the manager while making sure every team is represented.  Right now I believe there are 3 locks: Masahiro Tanaka, Felix Hernandez and Mark Buehrle.  All have double digit wins, all are in the top 4 in ERA and in the case of Hernandez and Buehrle they have been all stars before.  Tanaka is in his first year in MLB but he's tied with the league lead in ERA and wins.  

This leaves 5 spots available, with Porcello certainly in the mix.  If wins were the most prominent stat in selecting the pitchers, Porcello would get voted in as he's tied for the league lead with Tanaka with 11 wins.  However, we're in the age of advanced stats and wins are becoming less and less looked at as the holy grail of pitching stats.  Even with players making the selection, they could look beyond wins.  Porcello is currently 12th in the American League in ERA, meaning he'd be on the outside looking in.  He's 6th in rWAR, but tied for 17th in fWAR.  

Now would be a good time to make sure every team is represented.  Some teams will have a starting pitcher as their best option for a roster spot and so will take up 1 less spot available for Porcello.  First there are the Rays.  Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist aren't exactly having all-star years, but might go based on precedence.  Chris Archer just might be the most deserving on that team.  Will Michael Brantley make it with the Indians?  If not, Corey Kluber will get chosen.  There's also a similar situation with Jose Altuve and the Astros.  If for some reason he doesn't get selected, then Dallas Keuchel will go (there's also the possibility that George Springer will go despite not being with the club all year).

Out of those situations, Chris Archer has the best opportunity to take a roster spot away from a more deserving candidate, so now we are down to 4 roster spots.  Here is a list of candidates that Porcello is competing for a roster spot:

Player	W/L	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K/9	fWAR	bWAR
Rick Porcello	11-4	3.12	3.74	1.13	5.23	1.8	3.3
Yu Darvish	8-4	2.42	2.64	1.18	11.04	3.3	3.5
Dallas Keuchel	8-5	2.78	3.00	1.10	7.21	2.4	3.6
Garrett Richards	9-2	2.81	2.84	1.07	8.92	2.6	2.7
Jon Lester	9-7	2.92	2.84	1.18	9.08	3.3	1.7
Corey Kluber	7-6	2.99	2.64	1.22	9.74	3.3	2.7
Scott Kazmir	9-3	2.61	3.41	1.03	7.93	1.8	2.3
Anibal Sanchez	5-2	2.63	2.69	0.98	7.24	2.3	2.8

The Red Sox won the World Series last year, so John Farrell will select his own player Jon Lester (it's just the way it is).  I can't imagine Yu Darvish not going either.  After that, Rick Porcello might just be the next deserving candidate, although there is certainly a case to be made for any one of these pitchers.  

Another thing that needs to be considered is the rule that makes someone unavailable to pitch in the all-star game if they had pitched the Sunday before.  Those pitchers get replaced by someone else.  I don't know what everyone's pitching rotation will look like in the next week (and even then it could get changed) but Porcello is currently slated to start the Saturday before, making him eligible to pitch.  So even if he doesn't get initially selected, Porcello is in a good position to replace someone else if they can't pitch in the game (not to mention the possibility of someone getting injured).  

All things considered, I'd be shocked if Rick Porcello wasn't an all-star this year.  

What Happens When Rick Porcello Is Not Getting Ground Balls

When Rick Porcello gets ground balls, he prevents runs.  Just look at this table, sorted by highest ground ball rate (using FanGraph's numbers):

Year	GB%	ERA
2013	55.3%	4.32
2009	54.2%	3.96
2012	53.2%	4.59
2011	51.4%	4.75
2010	50.3%	4.92
2014	43.9%	3.49

It's almost a perfect correlation that the higher Porcello's ground ball rate, the lower his ERA.  In fact, take out his rookie season and his current season and it is a perfect correlation.  The chart below shows Porcello's first 5 seasons in MLB and the trend line:

So when Porcello is showing his lowest ERA along with his lowest ground ball rate in 2014, it raises a red flag, even if it is only in 6 starts.  Using the formula of y = -0.0451x + 0.7321, with a GB% of 43.9%, we would expect an ERA of 6.50.  With an ERA of 3.49, we would expect a GB% of 57.5%.  Did he change his approach?  Is he just getting lucky?  Is it just a 6 game anomaly?

Rick Porcello has an 18.2% strikeout rate, a 4.1% walk rate and a 2.0% home run rate which results in a 3.16 FIP, the lowest mark in his career.  FIP uses strikeouts, walks and home runs and shows what a pitcher's ERA should look like.  

However, he has a 29.8% line drive rate and a 26.3% fly ball rate to go along with his 43.9% ground ball rate, which results in a 4.83 tERA.  tERA is another ERA predictor, but uses batted ball information.  SIERA kinda uses a combination of both FIP and tERA and says Porcello's ERA should be 3.50 (which is the closest to his actual 3.49 ERA).  His ERA estimators are giving off mixed signals.   

The 29.8% line drive rate is the highest of his career:

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%
2009	17.1%	54.2%	28.7%
2010	17.6%	50.3%	32.1%
2011	19.0%	51.4%	29.6%
2012	24.2%	53.2%	22.6%
2013	21.1%	55.3%	23.7%
2014	29.8%	43.9%	26.3%

Conveniently, Baseball Reference gives the exact same batted ball figures (FanGraphs and Baseball Reference use different sources for their batted ball data and usually they disagree on few batted ball types).  I have to switch to Baseball Reference here since FanGraphs doesn't go as deep into batted ball data for pitchers as they do for hitters.  According to B-Ref, Porcello has a .559 BAA on line drives in 2014.  For his career, his BAA on line dives is at .696 and typically it's around .700.  Simply put, Porcello is very fortunate that more of his line drives haven't fallen in for base hits and it's keeping his ERA low.    

Going to Brooks Baseball, we can see exactly what pitch is causing Porcello's lack of ground balls:



Porcello's ground balls on 4-seam fastballs are usually in the mid-40% range, but it has dipped all the way down to only 5.9% so far in 2014.  Conversely, his fly ball rate on 4-seam fastballs has gone up:


Porcello's lack of ground balls, high line drive rate and crazy 4-seam fastball trend hasn't hurt him yet, but it's something to keep an eye on in his next start and going forward.  I don't believe Porcello can continue to have success with this combination.  

2014 Preseason Preciction #9 - Rick Porcello

Ever since his rookie year, it seems like everyone has been waiting for Rick Porcello's big breakout season.  He has been improving every year for the past three years, but last year he has taken some steps to show that he just might be capable of that breakout season:

	IP	BB%	K%	HR%	ERA	FIP
2011	182	5.9%	13.3%	2.3%	4.75	4.06
2012	176 1/3	5.6%	13.7%	2.0%	4.59	3.91
2013	177	5.7%	19.3%	2.4%	4.32	3.53

Porcello's ERA has dropped each year since 2011, however it has yet to match his lower FIP totals.  The huge improvement here is the strikeout rate going up  from mid-13% to over 19% in 2013.  

A high strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate is a great combination, and Porcello had his highest ground ball rate in 2013:

	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	0.316	19.0%	51.4%	29.6%
2012	0.344	24.2%	53.2%	22.6%
2013	0.315	21.1%	55.3%	23.7%

One of Porcello's problems is that he can blow up and surrender a bunch of runs at once.  In 2013, Porcello gave up 9 ER in a game against the Angles, 8 ER in a game against the Red Sox and 7 ER in another game against the Angels.  This caused his LOB% to be below average and it explains why his ERA has been higher than his FIP:

	LOB%	League LOB%
2011	67.4%	72.5%
2012	69.0%	72.5%
2013	69.8%	73.5%

2 of those games the opposition loaded up with 5 left-handed hitters and left-handed hitters have been a problem for Porcello:

Vs. RHB	BAA	OPS
2011	0.248	0.650
2012	0.294	0.725
2013	0.239	0.603

 

Vs. LHB	BAA	OPS
2011	0.321	0.857
2012	0.325	0.883
2013	0.300	0.806

 

Porcello has made great strides to be the pitcher he was projected to be by increasing his strikeout rate and ground ball rate.  The next step would be to develop a pitch to get left-handed batters out, like Max Scherzer has developed his curveball.  

I am optimistic that Porcello can maintain his high ground ball rate.  I am optimistic in Porcello keeping his strikeout rate around 19-20%, given his improvement in his changeup and curveball.  However, I am not so optimistic in him getting better versus left-handed batters, so I'm only predicting a slight improvement for 2014.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	182	13-11	3.92	1.28	129	46
Oliver	182	11-9	3.91	1.35	124	42
ZiPS	175 2/3	-	4.35	1.34	129	41
RotoChamp	189	12-9	3.86	1.35	136	47
CBS Sports	180	11-11	4.10	1.28	140	44
ESPN	193	12 W	4.01	1.27	139	44
MLB.com	195	14-8	3.74	1.25	150	49
FanGraphs' Fans  (22)	175 2/3	13-9	3.84	1.27	152	46

 
My Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	189	11-12	4.00	1.270	122	43
2013 Actual	177	13-8	4.32	1.282	142	42
2014 Prediction	186	14-7	3.92	1.269	155	44

Fantasy Impact:  With the increase in strikeouts, Porcello finally has some fantasy value.  He could be picked up around round 20 in a standard 12-team league, and that would be good value, especially if he can get his ERA below 4.00.  

2013 Preseason Predictions Evaluated

C Alex Avila:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	399	0.241	0.344	0.414	13	59	2	63	112
2013 Actual	330	0.227	0.317	0.376	11	47	0	44	112

Alex Avila started off very cold, hitting .177/.279/.293 in the first half.  But then got really hot, hitting .303/.376/.500 in the second half.  I still think injuries caused most of his problems in the beginning of the year and if he remains healthy next year, it could mean a breakout year.  

1B Prince Fielder

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	562	0.301	0.413	0.543	34	100	1	98	88
2013 Actual	624	0.279	0.362	0.457	25	106	1	75	117

Prince Fielder failed to hit 30 HR since his first full season in 2006.  Fielder's batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage were all down from a year ago, and there's little indication that he will bounce back next year.  His decline started earlier than I anticipated. 

2B Omar Infante

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	553	0.269	0.311	0.380	7	50	5	34	66
2013 Actual	453	0.318	0.345	0.450	10	51	5	20	44

Omar Infante had his best season to date, with a career high 117 wRC+ and 113 OPS+ over a full season.  At 31 years old, it's hard to imagine him duplicating this season, but it's also hard to imagine the Tigers not giving him a qualifying offer with the lack of 2B depth in Free Agency.  I'm glad I was wrong about him, although it wouldn't surprise me if he hit closer to my prediction in 2014.  

SS Jhonny Peralta

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.241	0.305	0.380	13	66	1	48	105
2013 Actual	409	0.303	0.358	0.457	11	55	3	35	98

The Biogenesis incident aside, Jhonny Peralta had a nice season in 2013 that more resembled his 2011 season than the 2012 season I predicted.  Although that came with a .374 BABIP, so his season could be described as "fluky."  

3B Miguel Cabrera

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	612	0.333	0.397	0.601	39	122	3	65	99
2013 Actual	555	0.348	0.442	0.636	44	137	3	90	94

The biggest difference between my prediction and what Miguel Cabrera did was the 13.8% walk rate, up from 9.5% from 2012.  He was able to get it back to previous levels as in 2010 it was 13.7% and in 2011 it was 15.7%.  Unfortunately, his injury caused him to only hit .278/.395/.333 in the last month of the season with only 1 HR and he miss several games in the 2nd half of the season.  While his 187 OPS+ and 192 wRC+ were the best mark of his career, it's does make me wonder how much better they'd be if he was able to hit for better than a .055 ISO the last month of the season.

LF Andy Dirks

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	410	0.276	0.324	0.422	11	48	5	27	70
2013 Actual	438	0.256	0.323	0.363	9	37	7	42	84

After hitting .322/.370/.487 in a half a year worth of games in 2012, I think several people were hopeful for a great breakout season from Andy Dirks that just didn't happen.  Even my conservative prediction wasn't conservative enough, expect for the walk rate, which exceeded my expectation.  

CF Austin Jackson

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	592	0.280	0.356	0.432	12	51	20	67	154
2013 Actual	552	0.272	0.337	0.417	12	49	8	52	129

A truly disappointed season from Austin Jackson that ended up with him batting 8th during the last few games of the ALCS, which surprisingly made him start hitting again.  His .333 BABIP seemed pedestrian compared to the .396 mark he put up in his rookie season and the .371 mark he put up in 2012.  But the biggest surprise might be the stolen bases, which have gone down every year since stealing 27 in his rookie year.  I would go out on a limb and say he'll never reach 20 SB again, but given his age and a different managerial strategy next year, he could get close to 30 again.  Or he might only get 5 next year.  He's just that streaky of a player.  

RF Torii Hunter

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	557	0.273	0.332	0.397	14	72	5	46	129
2013 Actual	606	0.304	0.334	0.465	17	84	3	26	113

Torii Hunter found his power stroke again, at least back to his 2011 level.  After having a .167 ISO in 2011, it plummeted to .139 in 2012, but then shot right back up to .161 in 2013.  Hunter is a vastly different player than he was when he was younger.  While he never hit .300 during his first 13 full years of playing, he has now had back-to-back seasons of hitting over .300.  But that has come at the expense of a lower walk rate, which has reached rock bottom at only 4% in 2013.  It was at 6.5% in 2012 and as high as the mid-9% range in 2009-2011.    

DH Victor Martinez

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.310	0.360	0.445	12	75	0	43	52
2013 Actual	605	0.301	0.355	0.430	14	83	0	54	62

Finally a close prediction!  Like Avila, Victor Martinez started off slow, hitting .258/.314/.380 in the first half, but then heated right up, hitting .361/.413/.500 in the 2nd half.  After having the whole 2012 season off due to an injury, it's not that surprising that it took him awhile to get back in the groove.  When it was all said and done, his numbers were very similar to what I expected, except maybe a bit more playing time.

SP Justin Verlander

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	240 1/3	18-7	2.77	1.036	235	59
2013 Actual	218 1/3	13-12	3.46	1.315	217	75

After having two consecutive seasons of sub-3.00 ERA in 2011 and 2012, Justin Verlander reverted back to a mid-3.00 ERA in 2013 that he had in most of his previous seasons (except for his disappointed 2008 season).  The biggest surprise might have been his durability.  After averaging 7.38 IP/start in 2011 and 7.22 IP/start in 2012, Verlander only averaged 6.42 IP/start in 2013.  It is possible that he was holding back during the regular season so that he would be stronger in the post-season, in which he had a 0.39 ERA and averaged 7.67 innings in 3 post-season starts. 

SP Max Scherzer

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	196 1/3	17-7	3.39	1.228	206	56
2013 Actual	214 1/3	21-3	2.90	0.970	240	56

I anticipated a breakout year for Max Scherzer, but he took it one step further with a Cy Young worthy season.  It's unfortunate that he may become too expensive to keep.  

SP Anibal Sanchez

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	190	10-11	4.07	1.411	149	67
2013 Actual	182	14-8	2.57	1.154	202	54

My biggest fail.  I predicted a lack-luster year for Anibal Sanchez and all he does is win the ERA title.  How does a guy have a higher K/9 in the DH, American League (9.1) than in the DH-less, National League (7.7)?  I don't think Jeff Jones gets enough credit.  

SP Doug Fister

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	208	14-8	3.20	1.125	173	46
2013 Actual	208 2/3	14-9	3.67	1.308	159	44

Thank God for Doug Fister's consistency; at least I got one of the pitchers mostly right.  The big difference being 0.47 in ERA and 14 strikeouts.

SP Rick Porcello

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	189	11-12	4.00	1.270	122	43
2013 Actual	177	13-8	4.32	1.282	142	42

Rick Porcello made great strides in his development this year as I mention here.  The biggest improvement being his strikeout rate, which reached over 7 K/9 for the first time this year.