Is Rick Porcello an All-Star?

Rick Porcello just finished back-to-back complete game shutouts, giving him career best stats in ERA (3.12), WHIP (1.13) and batting average against (.241).  The 2014 all-stars will be revealed on Sunday, so Porcello's stats are complete; he has no more starts before the rosters will be announced.  There are only so many spots available and some pitchers are having just as good of a season or better than Porcello, therefore it isn't really a slam dunk he'll make it.  Also, every team must be represented and past performance could also be a factor (Porcello has never been an all-star before).  So how good of a chance does Porcello have in making it this year?  

There are usually 7-8 starting pitchers selected for the all-star game, with 5 of them selected by the player's vote.  The other players are chosen by the manager while making sure every team is represented.  Right now I believe there are 3 locks: Masahiro Tanaka, Felix Hernandez and Mark Buehrle.  All have double digit wins, all are in the top 4 in ERA and in the case of Hernandez and Buehrle they have been all stars before.  Tanaka is in his first year in MLB but he's tied with the league lead in ERA and wins.  

This leaves 5 spots available, with Porcello certainly in the mix.  If wins were the most prominent stat in selecting the pitchers, Porcello would get voted in as he's tied for the league lead with Tanaka with 11 wins.  However, we're in the age of advanced stats and wins are becoming less and less looked at as the holy grail of pitching stats.  Even with players making the selection, they could look beyond wins.  Porcello is currently 12th in the American League in ERA, meaning he'd be on the outside looking in.  He's 6th in rWAR, but tied for 17th in fWAR.  

Now would be a good time to make sure every team is represented.  Some teams will have a starting pitcher as their best option for a roster spot and so will take up 1 less spot available for Porcello.  First there are the Rays.  Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist aren't exactly having all-star years, but might go based on precedence.  Chris Archer just might be the most deserving on that team.  Will Michael Brantley make it with the Indians?  If not, Corey Kluber will get chosen.  There's also a similar situation with Jose Altuve and the Astros.  If for some reason he doesn't get selected, then Dallas Keuchel will go (there's also the possibility that George Springer will go despite not being with the club all year).

Out of those situations, Chris Archer has the best opportunity to take a roster spot away from a more deserving candidate, so now we are down to 4 roster spots.  Here is a list of candidates that Porcello is competing for a roster spot:

Player	W/L	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K/9	fWAR	bWAR
Rick Porcello	11-4	3.12	3.74	1.13	5.23	1.8	3.3
Yu Darvish	8-4	2.42	2.64	1.18	11.04	3.3	3.5
Dallas Keuchel	8-5	2.78	3.00	1.10	7.21	2.4	3.6
Garrett Richards	9-2	2.81	2.84	1.07	8.92	2.6	2.7
Jon Lester	9-7	2.92	2.84	1.18	9.08	3.3	1.7
Corey Kluber	7-6	2.99	2.64	1.22	9.74	3.3	2.7
Scott Kazmir	9-3	2.61	3.41	1.03	7.93	1.8	2.3
Anibal Sanchez	5-2	2.63	2.69	0.98	7.24	2.3	2.8

The Red Sox won the World Series last year, so John Farrell will select his own player Jon Lester (it's just the way it is).  I can't imagine Yu Darvish not going either.  After that, Rick Porcello might just be the next deserving candidate, although there is certainly a case to be made for any one of these pitchers.  

Another thing that needs to be considered is the rule that makes someone unavailable to pitch in the all-star game if they had pitched the Sunday before.  Those pitchers get replaced by someone else.  I don't know what everyone's pitching rotation will look like in the next week (and even then it could get changed) but Porcello is currently slated to start the Saturday before, making him eligible to pitch.  So even if he doesn't get initially selected, Porcello is in a good position to replace someone else if they can't pitch in the game (not to mention the possibility of someone getting injured).  

All things considered, I'd be shocked if Rick Porcello wasn't an all-star this year.