The Tigers and manager Brad Ausmus also thought it was a good idea to try to make him a middle of the order run producer. Jackson has played 50 of his 57 games batting either 5th or 6th. The results, however, have been disappointing. He's only batting .254 with 3 home runs and 18 RBI. His 93 wRC+ is below league average and his ISO of .132 is lower than his previous two years. He does lead the league in sacrifice flies, though with 7. However he's on pace to hit less than 10 home runs with around 50 RBI.
His struggles have been even more pronounced recently. After having a decent April in which he hit .307/.391/.520, Jackson has hit .223/.273/.308 over his last 35 games.
Looking deeper into the stats, his batted ball data shows that Jackson is hitting more fly balls this year, probably as a result of changing his approach in an attempt to hit more home runs. Unfortunately, it's not working. According to FanGraphs:
| Year | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
0.340
|
16.8%
|
47.1%
|
36.1%
|
6.9%
|
2012
|
0.371
|
23.8%
|
42.2%
|
34.0%
|
11.4%
|
2013
|
0.333
|
27.6%
|
41.7%
|
30.7%
|
9.2%
|
2014
|
0.293
|
22.4%
|
33.5%
|
44.1%
|
4.0%
|
Jackson's home run to fly ball ratio hasn't been this low since it was 3.3% in his rookie year. Jackson has always had a high BABIP, but that usually comes with a high line drive rate and a high ground ball rate. With a high ground ball rate, Jackson can beat out infield singles, raising his BABIP. Hitting ground balls at a rate of 33.5% has given Jackson little opportunity to get infield hits, only 2 so far this year.
Plate disciple numbers also show a slight change, but in a positive way. According to Pitch f/x:
| Year | Swing% | Z-Swing% | O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
44.0%
|
60.8%
|
26.8%
|
2012
|
41.9%
|
57.1%
|
25.3%
|
2013
|
43.9%
|
60.1%
|
25.4%
|
2014
|
41.2%
|
60.0%
|
22.3%
|
Jackson's 22.3% out of zone swing percentage is the lowest of his career. This has resulted in a career-best strikeout rate of 17.9%. His walk rate is also up from last year at 9.8%.
Another positive is that Jackson is hitting left-handed pitching really well this year, .320/.410/.440 in 61 PA. Unfortunately, this also means that Jackson has struggled mightily against right-handed pitching, .232/.287/.368 in 174 PA. This is a complete reversal of what we saw in 2013 when Jackson had a .296/.345/.439 line against right-handed pitchers and a .213/.319/.363 line against left-handed pitching. So maybe this new approach should only be used when facing a left-handed pitcher.
Baseball is as much of a mental game as it is a physical game. The first step has to be to take Jackson out of the 5th and 6th spot and put him in a position where he doesn't think he has to be a run producer. Right now that should probably be 8th or 9th but as he improves, batting 2nd might be the ideal spot, right after Kinsler. Jackson needs to go back to doing what made him successful: a line drive/ground ball hitter instead of the flyball hitter that he has turned into.
Before this season, many fans wanted the Tigers to sign Jackson to a long-term deal while he's still young. That would mean a similar deal to the one the Yankees gave Brett Gardner, which is 4 years and $48 million with a 5th year option of $12.5 million. I wonder if it would be better situation for the Tigers to use that money instead for a legitimate middle of the order hitter.
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