2014 Preseason Prediction #11 - Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly had a fantastic year in relief last year, with a 2.37 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 81 strikeouts in 76 innings.  When the Tigers traded Doug Fister to the Nationals, that opened a spot in the rotation for Smyly.  He was a starter all through the minors and even started 18 games at the Major League level in 2012.  However, there is a durability issue here; the most amount of innings he has pitched was 126 in 2011.  

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	HR%	FIP
As a Starter	95	3.79	1.21	22.3%	6.6%	3.0%	3.77
As a Reliever	80 1/3	2.96	1.12	26.8%	7.4%	1.2%	2.47

As with most pitchers, Smyly is much more effective as a reliever, but should still be good enough as a starter.  Smyly is still only 25, so he still has some time to adjust and improve if needed.  Such as improving his 5.3 innings/start.

Another area of adjusting is re-introducing his changeup, which he almost completely abandoned in relief last year.  According to Brooks Baseball, Smyly mainly throws two types of fastballs (4-seamer and cutter), a slider and, when he was starting, a changeup.  Having at least three pitches is ideal for any starter to keep hitters off balance while going through the batting order two or three times.  According to Brooks Baseball, Smyly threw 78 changeups in 2012, and all but 1 of them were against right-handed batters.  It was very ineffective as opposing batters got 4 hits in 7 AB, including  2 home runs and a triple.  Overall in his career:

	BAA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Vs. LHB	0.204	0.254	0.315	0.252
Vs. RHB	0.249	0.311	0.425	0.319

Being left-handed, Smyly does better against left-handed batters than right-handed batters.  There's nothing alarming here as a .319 wOBA against is perfectly reasonable.  However, having an effective changeup against right-handed batters can really take Smyly to the next level.  

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	125	9-7	3.92	1.29	110	43
Oliver	99	7-4	3.19	1.19	97	30
ZiPS	135	-	4.07	1.27	127	41
RotoChamp	134	9-6	3.69	1.27	124	42
CBS Sports	150	8-9	3.84	1.23	142	48
ESPN	168	12 W	3.91	1.27	149	54
MLB.com	179	10-9	3.72	1.28	168	58
FanGraphs' Fans (13)	161	10-9	3.75	1.21	147	46

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2013 Actual	76	6-0	2.37	1.039	81	17
2014 Prediction	153 1/3	9-9	3.70	1.213	140	44

Fantasy Impact:  Smyly is an interesting case.  Due to a good strikeout rate and a potential ERA below 4.00, Smyly should be hot commodity.  However, there is a risk because of durability issues and a full season workload as a starter.  He's a good draft pick at later rounds, but use him carefully.  

Using RE24 to Evaluate Relievers

Run expectation is one way to measure a player's effectiveness, either on offense or pitching.  In every 24-out situation, there's a different run expectation depending on the the baserunners and outs (the inning and score is irrelevant in RE24).  The difference between the run expectation at the start of a PA and the end of the PA gets charged to both the hitter and pitcher.  FanGraphs provides an example using the Red Sox and Rockies 2007 World Series game.  At the start of an inning the run expectation was .52 (this is just the league runs/league innings), then Ellsbury doubled that changed the run expectation to 1.15.  The difference between 1.15 and .52 is 0.63.  Therefore Ellsbury gets charged with +0.63 and Cook gets charged with -0.63.  

During the course of the season, these run expectation differences get added and subtracted to the player's total and at the end of the season they get a cumulative total that shows how much better they've been than league average.  Run expectation is extremely useful in generating linear weights which then can be applied to stats such as wOBA.  However, many analysts agree that RE24 can be very useful in proving relief pitcher value because they often come in and leave in the middle of an inning.  Say a starter loads the bases in the 7th inning and a reliever comes in and gives up a 3-run double and then a strikeout.  All 3 runs get charged to the starter while the reliever gets a scoreless 1/3 of an inning.  ERA doesn't properly show what happened, but RE24 does. 

The table below shows the Tigers relievers' RE24 as of games played through 8/31 provided by FanGraphs:

Player	IP	RE24
Joaquin Benoit	54 2/3	19.91
Drew Smyly	69	16.70
Jeremy Bonderman	14 1/3	3.50
Jose Veras	14 1/3	1.57
Jose Ortega	11 2/3	0.93
Rick Porcello	2	0.84
Bruce Rondon	26	-0.11
Evan Reed	18	-0.35
Luke Putkonen	22 2/3	-2.18
Jose Valverde	19 1/3	-2.38
Al Alburquerque	39	-3.27
Darin Downs	33	-3.73
Jose Alvarez	4	-4.78
Octavio Dotel	4 2/3	-6.02
Phil Coke	36	-6.46
Brayan Villarreal	4 1/3	-8.73

Tangotiger recently showed us how we can put RE24 on a RA9 or ERA scale:

If it helps, we can recast RE24 into an RA9 scale (i.e., similar to ERA) as follows.  Say the league average is .48 runs per inning.  Say you have a pitcher that has an RE24 of +40 runs and has pitched 200 innings.  That means the league average is .48 x 200 = 96 runs, and our pitcher here is 40 runs better than that, or 56 runs allowed.  So, his (RE24-based) RA9 is simply 56/200*9 = 2.52.

So far there have been 16,965 runs allowed in 36,380 1/3 IP for a league run/inning of 0.47 so far in 2013.  Using Joaquin Benoit as an example, he has pitched 54 2/3 innings; the league average would allow 0.47 * 54 2/3 = 25.49 runs.  Benoit has been 19.91 runs better or (25.49-19.91) 5.58 runs.  5.58 divided by 54 2/3 times 9 = 0.92.  The table below shows all of the Tigers relievers using this new metric (which I'm calling reRA9):

Player	IP	reRA9
Rick Porcello	2	0.42
Joaquin Benoit	54 2/3	0.92
Jeremy Bonderman	14 1/3	2.00
Drew Smyly	69	2.02
Jose Veras	14 1/3	3.21
Jose Ortega	11 2/3	3.48
Bruce Rondon	26	4.23
Evan Reed	18	4.37
Al Alburquerque	39	4.95
Luke Putkonen	22 2/3	5.06
Darin Downs	33	5.21
Jose Valverde	19 1/3	5.30
Phil Coke	36	5.81
Jose Alvarez	4	14.95
Octavio Dotel	4 2/3	15.81
Brayan Villarreal	4 1/3	22.33

We could then compare the pitcher's reRA9 to his ERA to see if he's been overvalued or undervalued:

Player	IP	reRA9	ERA	Difference
Octavio Dotel	4 2/3	15.81	13.50	2.31
Luke Putkonen	22 2/3	5.06	2.78	2.28
Brayan Villarreal	4 1/3	22.33	20.77	1.56
Evan Reed	18	4.37	3.00	1.37
Phil Coke	36	5.81	5.00	0.81
Bruce Rondon	26	4.23	3.81	0.43
Rick Porcello	2	0.42	0.00	0.42
Al Alburquerque	39	4.95	4.85	0.11
Jose Veras	14 1/3	3.21	3.14	0.07
Darin Downs	33	5.21	5.18	0.03
Drew Smyly	69	2.02	2.22	-0.20
Jose Valverde	19 1/3	5.30	5.59	-0.28
Jose Ortega	11 2/3	3.48	3.86	-0.38
Jeremy Bonderman	14 1/3	2.00	2.51	-0.51
Joaquin Benoit	54 2/3	0.92	1.48	-0.56
Jose Alvarez	4	14.95	15.75	-0.80

Villarreal and Valverde are no longer with us.  Other pitchers like Dotel, Porcello and Alvarez have too small of a sample size to tell us much.  It looks like Putkonen, who has a nice ERA, has been overvalued according to his RE24.  And Benoit, who has been extremely good in his role this year, looks to be even better by looking at RE24.  

The 2013 All Stat Team

Last week the 2013 All-Star Team was announced.  Just like every other year, sports journalists and fans complain about snubs and immediately point to the manager to fault (even though nearly 79% of the AL roster and 71% of the NL roster is filled out by a vote of some kind.  Fans chose the starting 9 in the AL/8 in NL and the final roster spot while the players, coaches and managers vote in 8 pitchers and 9 reserves in the AL/8 reserves in the NL).  Then the manager has to make sure every team is represented when he selects the final spots.  The manager really doesn't have enough leverage on the roster to make sure that everyone deserving is on.

There are interesting debates that pop up during this time.  Do we eliminate fan voting altogether?  Do we get rid of the rule that every team must be represented?  Do we focus on the "stars" more and ignore players who are only having good half years?  Do we come up with a calculation based on certain stats to determine the rosters?  Do we expand the rosters?  

My spin on this is that I like to recognize those players who are having great years statically this year, even if it is luck-based.   I also like the rule that every team must be represented.  Because I'm using stats to determine my roster, I'm just going to call it what it is: The All Stat Team.

American League:

Starters:

POS	Name	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	OPS+	fWAR	rWAR
C	Joe Mauer	MIN	403	0.320	0.402	0.473	0.380	142	140	3.9	4.0
1B	Chris Davis	BAL	393	0.315	0.392	0.717	0.458	192	193	5.1	4.5
2B	Robinson Cano	NYY	409	0.302	0.386	0.531	0.385	143	150	3.7	4.8
3B	Miguel Cabrera	DET	428	0.365	0.458	0.674	0.473	204	200	6.0	5.5
SS	Jhonny Peralta	DET	375	0.303	0.361	0.447	0.352	120	116	2.7	2.3
LF	Mike Trout	LAA	426	0.322	0.399	0.565	0.410	166	169	5.7	4.6
CF	Adam Jones	BAL	413	0.296	0.324	0.501	0.355	122	121	2.5	2.8
RF	Jose Bautista	TOR	390	0.254	0.351	0.493	0.365	129	127	3.1	2.8
DH	David Ortiz	BOS	331	0.317	0.402	0.606	0.418	164	167	2.9	2.7

Starting Pitcher:

Name	Team	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K%	FIP	FIP-	fWAR	rWAR
Felix Hernandez	SEA	138 2/3	2.53	149	1.10	25.6%	2.66	64	4.2	4.7

Reserves:

POS	Name	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	OPS+	fWAR	rWAR
C	Carlos Santana	CLE	329	0.275	0.382	0.466	0.367	137	141	1.7	2.4
C	Jason Castro	HOU	329	0.269	0.331	0.475	0.346	119	120	2.2	2.4
1B	Edwin Encarnacion	TOR	399	0.264	0.353	0.532	0.380	140	137	2.7	2.3
2B	Jason Kipnis	CLE	374	0.301	0.383	0.514	0.385	149	154	3.4	4.2
2B	Dustin Pedroia	BOS	432	0.316	0.396	0.436	0.365	127	125	3.7	4.5
3B	Josh Donaldson	OAK	391	0.310	0.379	0.522	0.387	149	151	4.3	4.3
3B	Evan Longoria	TB	399	0.278	0.356	0.507	0.367	137	140	4.3	3.6
3B	Manny Machado	BAL	435	0.310	0.337	0.470	0.349	118	117	4.2	5.0
SS	Jed Lowrie	OAK	383	0.295	0.364	0.424	0.346	122	121	1.8	1.2
OF	Colby Rasmus	TOR	346	0.263	0.332	0.484	0.354	122	119	3.5	3.1
OF	Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	419	0.305	0.368	0.422	0.345	114	113	3.5	3.4
OF	Desmond Jennings	TB	399	0.267	0.335	0.449	0.341	119	119	2.7	2.8

Pitchers:

Name	Team	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K%	FIP	FIP-	fWAR	rWAR
Max Scherzer	DET	129 2/3	3.19	135	0.98	30.1%	2.68	65	4.0	3.8
Chris Sale	CWS	120	2.85	154	1.01	27.4%	2.94	71	3.2	4.6
Yu Darvish	TEX	119 1/3	3.02	144	1.05	32.5%	3.22	75	3.0	3.0
Justin Verlander	DET	126	3.50	123	1.34	23.3%	3.23	78	3.0	2.9
Bartolo Colon	OAK	126 2/3	2.70	144	1.11	14.0%	3.23	83	2.6	3.6
Derek Holland	TEX	125 2/3	3.08	141	1.28	23.1%	2.87	67	3.8	2.9
Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	118 2/3	2.65	153	1.05	17.7%	3.62	87	2.3	3.2
Jesse Crain	CWS	36 2/3	0.74	599	1.15	30.3%	1.53	38	2.0	2.5
Greg Holland	KC	35	1.80	231	0.91	44.4%	1.32	33	1.6	1.0
Glen Perkins	MIN	34 2/3	1.82	231	0.81	35.9%	1.79	45	1.3	1.4
Joe Nathan	TEX	39 2/3	1.36	321	0.76	28.4%	2.43	57	1.5	2.1
Drew Smyly	DET	56 2/3	1.91	226	0.97	26.0%	2.04	50	1.5	2.2

National League:

Starters:

POS	Name	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	OPS+	fWAR	rWAR
C	Buster Posey	SF	367	0.325	0.395	0.536	0.398	162	167	4.1	4.2
1B	Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	406	0.313	0.395	0.557	0.405	157	158	4.2	4.8
2B	Matt Carpenter	STL	408	0.321	0.394	0.497	0.386	152	146	4.4	3.9
3B	David Wright	NYM	399	0.304	0.396	0.507	0.389	155	154	4.9	4.9
SS	Jean Segura	MIL	397	0.325	0.363	0.487	0.367	134	129	3.2	3.7
LF	Carlos Gonzalez	COL	395	0.302	0.370	0.610	0.414	153	148	4.5	4.7
CF	Carlos Gomez	MIL	362	0.296	0.338	0.534	0.371	136	132	4.6	5.7
RF	Carlos Beltran	STL	350	0.309	0.346	0.533	0.378	146	140	1.7	2.0
DH	Joey Votto	CIN	429	0.318	0.434	0.506	0.402	157	153	3.7	4.2

Starting Pitcher:

Name	Team	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K%	FIP	FIP-	fWAR	rWAR
Adam Wainwright	STL	146 2/3	2.45	151	1.01	22.7%	2.23	60	4.5	4.8

Reserves:

POS	Name	Team	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	OPS+	fWAR	rWAR
C	Yadier Molina	STL	350	0.341	0.386	0.489	0.378	146	142	4.2	4.0
C	Russell Martin	PIT	302	0.239	0.346	0.394	0.330	111	110	3.0	3.1
1B	Allen Craig	STL	381	0.333	0.378	0.494	0.378	146	140	2.1	1.7
2B	Marco Scutaro	SF	356	0.316	0.367	0.400	0.339	121	122	2.1	2.2
3B	Pedro Alvarez	PIT	334	0.250	0.311	0.516	0.351	126	130	2.5	2.2
SS	Ian Desmond	WAS	389	0.281	0.328	0.486	0.349	123	121	3.5	2.6
SS	Everth Cabrera	SD	363	0.291	0.373	0.396	0.343	120	122	2.8	2.7
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	265	0.332	0.400	0.608	0.425	161	156	3.5	3.1
OF	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	388	0.302	0.376	0.471	0.365	136	139	4.2	4.8
OF	Shin-Soo Choo	CIN	435	0.287	0.425	0.468	0.393	152	142	3.1	3.0
OF	Michael Cuddyer	COL	317	0.330	0.391	0.568	0.409	150	144	1.8	1.5
OF	Starling Marte	PIT	401	0.291	0.342	0.462	0.349	124	126	3.6	4.0

Pitchers:

Name	Team	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	K%	FIP	FIP-	fWAR	rWAR
Matt Harvey	NYM	130	2.35	153	0.92	29.3%	2.17	59	4.2	4.3
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	145 1/3	1.98	181	0.91	24.8%	2.52	68	3.9	5.2
Cliff Lee	PHI	138 2/3	2.86	135	1.00	23.1%	2.97	78	3.0	4.3
Jhoulys Chacin	COL	113	3.50	127	1.26	14.6%	3.18	73	2.8	4.1
Patrick Corbin	ARI	130 1/3	2.35	164	1.00	21.2%	3.18	80	2.7	3.5
Jordan Zimmermann	WAS	132 1/3	2.58	146	0.97	18.2%	3.08	81	2.8	3.4
Travis Wood	CHC	122 2/3	2.79	141	1.04	17.6%	3.59	91	2.2	3.4
Jose Fernandez	MIA	104 2/3	2.75	140	1.08	24.3%	3.22	84	1.9	2.6
Mark Melancon	PIT	44 1/3	0.81	441	0.79	27.1%	1.62	43	1.6	2.0
Craig Kimbrel	ATL	35 1/3	1.53	255	0.99	39.1%	2.30	61	1.1	1.6
Bobby Parnell	NYM	43	2.30	157	0.91	22.9%	2.06	56	1.4	1.3
Jason Grilli	PIT	40 2/3	1.99	180	0.86	39.6%	1.34	35	1.8	1.1

I'm not too concerned with injury replacements.  

Disagree?  Post your team in the comments.