2013 Preseason Prediction #13 – Andy Dirks

One of the big stories for the Tigers this past off-season was that the Tigers needed a right-handed outfielder to platoon with Andy Dirks in LF. Ultimately, Matt Tuiasosopo will fill that role, at least to start the season. Does Dirks even need a platoon partner?

vs LHP	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011	31	0.323	0.323	0.548
2012	83	0.274	0.354	0.397
Career	114	0.288	0.345	0.442

Conclusion: probably too small of a sample size to draw any real conclusions. Sure it looks like he'd do fine against left-handed pitchers and become a full-time player, but so did Brennan Boesch . No, I don't think Dirks will end up being as bad as Boesch, but I do think there needs to be a bigger sample to say he can hit this well against left-handed pitchers.

The real reason for the platoon probably has to do with durability. Dirks has had some injuries the last two years and getting regular days off will hopefully keep him healthy for a full season.
The other issue with Dirks is that he had an inflated BABIP of .365 last year that will be hard to sustain. When that normalizes, his production will fall. Using FanGraphs' numbers (and this equation for xBABIP):

	GB	FB	LD	BABIP	xBABIP
2011	34.4%	46.7%	18.9%	0.273	0.284
2012	38.2%	37.5%	24.3%	0.365	0.320

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	320	0.273	0.325	0.425	9	42	4	23	54
Oliver	466	0.275	0.326	0.427	12	58	15	33	85
ZiPS	450	0.276	0.321	0.418	12	49	11	27	80
Bill James	484	0.283	0.335	0.438	14	58	10	36	76
RotoChamp	320	0.291	0.342	0.456	9	47	3	22	53
CBS Sports	410	0.290	0.336	0.459	12	47	4	28	67
ESPN	410	0.285	0.332	0.441	12	47	10	27	66
MLB.com	454	0.289	0.337	0.443	12	44	1	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (17)	436	0.280	0.333	0.422	11	61	7	33	72

Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2012 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2012 Actual	314	0.322	0.370	0.487	8	35	1	23	53
2013 Prediction	410	0.276	0.324	0.422	11	48	5	27	70

Fantasy Impact: Do to limited at bats and regression from an inflated BABIP, Dirks should probably be a non-factor in all fantasy leagues.

A Song For Matt Tuiasosopo

Matt Tuiasosopo has all but made the opening day roster . He has impressed during Spring Training with a batting line of .320/.414/.680 and has generated enough of a fan base to try to get a nickname. In an attempt to bring some humor to this blog, here is 2E So-So's short career in song form. To the tune of The Kingsmen's Louie Louie:

Tuia Tuai, oh no, said me So-So, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, said-a
Tuai Tuai, oh baby, said me So-So.  

A fine little guy, what a player.
Drafted by the Seattle Mariners.
Me hit a homer in first pro at bat .
Tied the team lead with 4, imagine that. 

Tuia Tuai, yeah, nah, nah, now, said me So-So, oh no, said-a
Tuai Tuai, oh baby, said me So-So. 

Three years me called up and down.
Me didn't hit well, got ran out of town.
Me still can play defense anyway.
The Mets said me can do well in triple-A. 

Tuia Tuai, woh no, said me So-So, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, said-a
Tuai Tuai, oh baby, said me So-So. 

OK, let's give it to 'em right now 

Me sent e-mails to every team but 2 .
Tigers said Dirks needs to be platooned.
Me played hard and gave all me got
Leyland says me deserve a shot. 

Tuia Tuai, oh no, said me So-So, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, said-a
Tuai Tuai, oh baby, said me So-So. 

I said me So-So now
Let's get on out to Detroit
Let's go!

2013 Preseason Prediction #12 – Omar Infante

Omar Infante is boring. Boring in that he's a consistently average player and at 31 years old he isn't young enough to get any better, yet not old enough to start a massive decline. The last 2 years, he's combined to hit .275/.308/.400 and his career average is almost identical at .275/.315/.397.

	PA	BB	K	BABIP	AVG	ISO
2010	506	5.7%	12.3%	0.355	0.321	0.096
2011	640	5.3%	10.5%	0.298	0.276	0.105
2012 (Marlins)	347	3.5%	12.1%	0.307	0.287	0.155
2012 (Tigers)	241	3.7%	9.5%	0.269	0.257	0.128

A few things stick out. In 2010, Infante had an inflated BABIP which resulted in a high average, which regressed in the next two years. The walk rate fell about 2% in 2012 from the previous two years. That's worrisome, but it could just be a fluke and bounce back in 2013. Finally, the isolated power (SLG-AVG) was inflated in 2012, which could regress to around .100 like it was in 2010-11.

Infante's numbers in Detroit did take a dive, but that could be explained by bad luck in BABIP as it was around 40 points lower than it was in Miami. If he can have a BABIP of around .300, then he is a .275 hitter.

Lastly, Infante had 17 stolen bases in 2012 (10 with the Marlins, 7 with the Tigers). The only other time he hit double digits in stolen bases was in 2004 when he had 13 SB. The three previous years his stolen base numbers were 2 in 2009, 7 in 2010 and 4 in 2011. I think it's safe to say that he'll have a stolen base number of around 5 in 2013.

Overall, I think the switch from the National League to the American League will see a slight decline in production.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	437	0.282	0.319	0.405	8	52	8	24	52
Oliver	525	0.278	0.320	0.387	8	57	11	32	68
ZiPS	522	0.278	0.311	0.387	9	51	9	24	59
Bill James	507	0.282	0.320	0.400	9	51	11	27	63
RotoChamp	520	0.298	0.332	0.427	10	70	10	25	62
CBS Sports	570	0.270	0.311	0.396	10	49	11	34	69
ESPN	560	0.280	0.313	0.405	10	53	11	28	64
MLB.com	546	0.280	0.320	0.408	10	59	10	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (19)	535	0.275	0.304	0.389	8	58	11	24	66

Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2012 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2012 Actual	554	0.274	0.300	0.419	12	69	17	21	65
2013 Prediction	553	0.269	0.311	0.380	7	50	5	34	66

Fantasy Impact: Unless you're in a deep league or an AL-Only league, Infante should probably be a non-factor. Infante just doesn't do anything well enough to warrant a spot on a fantasy team.

Spring Training in Lakeland Part 2

Sitting on the Berm, on Tuesday, March 19th, and a lot of things never get
old in Spring Training- the sun, the warm weather, the laid-back, who-cares-about-anything-other-than-an-exhibition-baseball-game attitude that
the overflowing crowd is about to experience under that incredible sun-drenched sky. Most of us are Tigers' fans, but the score won't really matter. Not yet. Not until April 1st. For now, its just a ballgame. But as it is every year at this time, there is nothing like it.

As I said, the score doesn't matter. Really. It doesn't. 11-5 Tampa Bay. Sigh.

The game was notable mostly for a gas-on-the-fire 4th inning by Doug Fister
who surrendered 4 hits and 6 runs, including a grand slam by Luke Scott.
Fister's E.R.A. jumped to 7.36. All of this in 2/3 of an inning. Leyland
gave him the rest of the night off. Thank you Skip.

On the bright side, Austin Jackson had a couple hits, including a double, and Torii Hunter tripled and singled. Torii already seems very popular,
at least at Joker Marchant Stadium. Hoping this signing is as good as it appears to be.

The Berm was packed, and it had nothing to do with the two new Tiki bars,
(serviced by local Hooter girls) adorning the area. Its all about baseball.
Laying on blankets. No shoes. Kids running around hopped up on candy floss and melting ice cream. Experts telling their companions they met Derek Jeter. Old guys keeping a baseball glove nearby. Young guys not needing a glove. Some people watching every pitch intently. Other people chatting or just gazing at everyone else. People actually SLEEPING! Spring Training is perfect, and it has nothing to do with Hooters Tiki Bars. Honest.

My next game was a 6:05 start on Thursday, March 21st, starring our own superstar, Justin Verlander. We had great seats, half way up stands between home and first base. Nice 72 degree weather, classic view, and Verlander on the mound. I want to stay here.

Verlander was terrific through 3 innings, allowing one hit, and throwing between 79 and 93 MPH. In the 4th inning, Gerald's brother Brandon Laird hit a 2 run homer off Verlander.
The Laird's never go away. The inning was highlighted by a straight-back foul ball that hit
the screen so hard, a guy in the first row was treated to a beer in his lap. Hopefully his own beverage. A couple pitches later, same swing, same result. The beer was already in a puddle underneath the fans' shoes, so no further damage.

In the 5th inning, Justin got tagged for a couple more home runs (3? In one game? Off Verlander? Ok relax, it's Spring Training...) Verlander did look very sharp at times in his
5 2/3 innings, despite the long balls.

Potential closer Bruce Rondon pitched the 9th inning and threw hard as usual, hitting 100 MPH on one scorcher. The 99 and 98 MPH pitches were cringe-worthy for the hitters too.
Control, control, control. If this guy masters that fine art, the Tigers have one fine relief artist.

The final score was 7-2 Houston, and Victor Martinez's two hits were the highlight of a lacklustre hitting display. More troublesome than a mere 5 hits for the Tigers was the
incessant screeching from a couple of Astros fans a few rows behind us. From inning one
to the final out of a BLOWOUT SPRING TRAINING GAME, this annoying shrieking couple entertained the fans with squeals of "go 'stros" and "you can do it" and loud descriptions of how they flew in from Houston just to see this game. It was tempting to turn around and
remind them that the "'stros" are likely to lose 100 games this year. But despite the loss, I was in a good mood.

Nothing can ruin Spring Training.

Jim Skinner
Lakeland

2013 Preseason Prediction #11 – Alex Avila

After having an all-star season in 2011, most people projected a regression from Alex Avila in 2012, citing his inflated .366 BABIP as the reason. Avila's BABIP did fall to .313 and so did the production. There have been a few constants for Avila, though, in some of his rate stats (using FanGraphs' numbers):

	BB	K	HR/FB
2010	10.8%	21.3%	9.0%
2011	13.2%	23.8%	13.8%
2012	14.1%	24.0%	11.4%

Not much difference is those numbers, especially the last 2 years. There isn't much difference in the HR/FB ratio which is surprising, since Avila had a massive decline in power.

	GB	FB	LD	BABIP	xBABIP
2010	43.5%	35.0%	21.5%	0.278	0.312
2011	37.8%	40.5%	21.7%	0.366	0.294
2012	46.4%	29.8%	23.8%	0.313	0.296

The huge shift of fly balls to ground balls in 2012 from the previous year could explain some of the loss of power. There are several xBABIP calculations out there. The one I'm using can be found here. The purpose of xBABIP is an attempt to quantify luck. It is calculated using batted ball data to show what a player's BABIP should look like. A higher xBABIP indicates "bad luck" and a lower xBABIP indicates "good luck."

It does show that Avila's 2011 was fluky and his true talent in batting average is probably closer to the .243 AVG in 2012, where his BABIP and xBABIP were more even. The power could return if he hits more fly balls like in 2011.

As far as 2013 is concerned, I expect something between his 2011 and 2012 as far as batted ball percentages are concerned. Therefore, I see an uptick in power, but he may never reach his 2011 numbers ever again.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	340	0.255	0.355	0.423	11	47	2	52	91
Oliver	416	0.250	0.341	0.428	16	59	2	56	115
ZiPS	403	0.248	0.351	0.407	13	56	2	62	116
Bill James	428	0.269	0.373	0.446	15	66	2	69	109
RotoChamp	445	0.254	0.364	0.422	14	59	2	74	122
CBS Sports	420	0.262	0.356	0.445	15	60	1	61	111
ESPN	395	0.261	0.363	0.430	13	61	2	64	110
MLB.com	445	0.283	0.387	0.443	13	71	3	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (22)	444	0.261	0.359	0.414	12	72	4	67	119

Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2012 Prediction	441	0.270	0.369	0.456	17	74	2	70	120
2012 Actual	367	0.243	0.352	0.384	9	48	2	61	104
2013 Prediction	399	0.241	0.344	0.414	13	59	2	63	112

Fantasy Impact: Avila is a good bounce-back candidate, so if you plan on punting the catching position, Avila could be had late in the draft. According to Mock Draft Central, Avila is being taken 249 overall, which is the 21st round in a standard 12-team league. That's great value, if you ask me. Catchers are generally over-drafted as a whole, so this might be a good strategy to consider.

2013 Preseason Prediction #10 – Anibal Sanchez

Anibal Sanchez ' numbers over the last 3 years:

	K	BB	HR	FIP	xFIP	ERA
2010	18.7%	8.3%	1.2%	3.32	4.04	3.55
2011	24.3%	7.7%	2.4%	3.35	3.25	3.67
2012 (Marlins)	21.8%	6.6%	2.4%	3.43	3.54	3.94
2012 (Tigers)	18.0%	4.8%	2.5%	3.68	3.71	3.74

The thing that jumps out the most is the lowering walk rate, which is a very good sign if he can keep it up. Sanchez has had low FIP totals, but he's done it differently every year. In 2010, he had a low HR rate with a high walk rate and a moderate strikeout rate. In 2011, he had a high strikeout rate as well as a high walk rate and a moderate HR rate. In 2012, he had a low walk rate, but moderate strikeout and HR rates. He's been good in all three rates, but he hasn't been good at all three in the same year. He's also been poor to moderate in all three rates - he's just avoided it in the same year.

According to Pitch f/x:

	Zone%	O-Swing%	O-Contact%
2010	53.4%	29.6%	65.3%
2011	51.3%	32.3%	61.7%
2012	52.2%	31.0%	61.6%

There is very little difference between 2011 (where he had a 7.7% walk rate) and 2012 (where he had a 5.9% walk rate). He's not throwing more in the strike zone; he's not making the hitters swing more out of the zone and having them make more contact out of the zone. Therefore, I have a hard time believing that Sanchez made a legitimate improvement here and his walk rate may be near 8% again in 2013.

Then there's the switch from the NL to the AL, where pitchers generally see a jump in ERA now that they have to face an extra hitter instead of a pitcher. Yes, Sanchez made 12 starts for the Tigers last year and was fairly good in those starts. However, it was a small sample and now scouting reports will be going around. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Sanchez is going to struggle at times this year.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	179	13-8	4.05	1.27	140	52
Oliver	198	13-9	3.50	1.26	164	55
ZiPS	185	11-9	4.23	1.32	143	50
Bill James	201	12-10	3.72	1.27	175	56
RotoChamp	200	12-8	3.65	1.29	179	57
CBS Sports	195	14-11	3.98	1.25	171	54
ESPN	201	12 W	3.63	1.23	178	57
MLB.com	196	15-10	3.72	1.28	169	51
FanGraphs' Fans (25)	198	14-9	3.71	1.25	169	53

Update: 4/1

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2012 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2012 Actual	195 2/3	9-13	3.86	1.267	167	48
2013 Prediction	190	10-11	4.07	1.411	149	67

Fantasy Impact: Sanchez doesn't do anything exceptionally well (doesn't have a high strikeout rate aside from 2011 and his WHIP and ERA don't sparkle) but he doesn't do anything exceptionally bad either. He'd be a good 4th starter on a 12-team league in around the 15th-16th round.