Poster TigersFanATL observed that the Tigers don’t really work the count and this is
the reason why the Tigers are having a terrible time having a consistent
offense. There are a few advantages in
working the count. For one, it could
lead to more walks (when there’s more men on base, there’s a better chance that
they’ll score). Only the Orioles (7.5%)
and Royals (6.7%) have a lower walk rate in the American League than the Tigers
(7.6%). There’s also a better chance
that the pitcher will make a mistake that the batter can take advantage
on. Finally, it drives up the starter’s
pitch count and they can get into the bullpen earlier (for example, the Tigers
couldn’t touch Paul Maholm last night, but scored 3 runs after he was
replaced).
I decided to
look at the numbers to see how the Tigers look on plate discipline.
In pitches/PA,
the Tigers are dead last in the American League. In all of baseball, they are tied with the
Phillies at 3.72 pitches/PA and only the Cardinals are slightly lower at 3.71
pitches/PA. Delmon Young is the worst
everyday player at working the count as he only sees 3.28 pitches/PA. Brennan Boesch isn’t too far behind; he’s 7th
lowest at 3.38 pitches/PA. The White Sox
are the only other team to have 2 players in the bottom 10 (Alex Rios is 2nd
at 3.31 pitches/PA and A.J. Pierzynski is 10th at 3.40
pitches/PA). The league average is 3.85
pitches/PA. Here’s how some of the other
Tigers look:
Alex Avila –
4.17
Austin
Jackson – 4.12
Danny Worth –
3.95
Jhonny
Peralta – 3.94
Ryan Raburn –
3.85
Don Kelly –
3.88
Prince
Fielder – 3.80
Miguel
Cabrera – 3.68
Andy Dirks –
3.68
Quintin Berry
– 3.65
Ramon
Santiago – 3.57
Brennan
Boesch – 3.38
Delmon Young –
3.28
The Tigers have
been very aggressive; they swing 30% of the time at the first pitch, which is
tops in the American League. Only
Washington (33%), Cincinnati (32%), St. Louis and San Diego (31%) are higher. Surprisingly, it’s Josh Hamilton and Freddie
Freeman who are tops in baseball in this stat; swinging at the first pitch
exactly half of the time (50%). Delmon
Young is at 44%, the highest on the Tigers.
The one stat
that doesn’t make much sense is that the Tigers are leading all of baseball in
the amount of foul balls per strikes seen at 29%. If the Tigers are fouling off that many
pitches, it would seem that they are working the count and thus their
pitches/PA should be high. Unless, of
course, the amount of strikes seen is low.
According to FanGraphs, the Tigers are swinging at more pitches in the strike zone than any
other team in baseball at 67.7% of the time.
And according to Baseball-Reference, they are putting the ball in play
31% of the time, tied for 2nd with the Royals, Giants, Angels,
Yankees and Rangers. Only the Phillies
are higher at 32%. This should be a good
thing, as it prevents the Tigers from striking out (which it is, the Tigers are
only striking out 17.8% of the time; league average is 18.8%) and also forces
the other team’s defense to make a play.
The Tigers
are hitting line drives 21.6% of the time, which is quite good; only the Red
Sox (22.7%), Rangers (22%), Royals (21.8%) and White Sox (21.7%) are better in
the American League. They are also hitting ground balls only 42% of the time (only the Red Sox are lower at
40.8%). So, the Tigers have put a lot of
balls in play, but they are also hitting the ball fairly well too; line drives
are good because they have the best chance at falling in for a base hit (about
70-72% of the time) and avoiding ground balls is good because it’s hard to hit
for power when hitting the ball on the ground (and you generally need speed to
get an infield hit).
So, the
Tigers should have a high rate on which balls fall in for hits – and they do, a
.300 BABIP. Only the Rangers (.319) and
Red Sox (.310) are higher in the American League.
The Tigers
have a very aggressive approach when it comes to hitting. It prevents them from striking out, but it
also prevents them from walking. They
don’t see a lot of pitches, but when they do put the ball in play, good things
are happening. What they lack is
balance. The Tigers have a lot of the
same type of hitters, who swing early and often – and this has led to an
inconsistent offense. What they need are
a few players who can work the count and can draw walks. This is why Austin Jackson and Alex Avila are
so important to this Tigers offense.
They are both averaging over 4 pitches/ PA and have walk rates over
11.5%. Unfortunately, both have missed
time on the DL. Jackson is now back; let’s
hope for a speedy recovery for Avila.
Great job. Glad to see you gave recognition to me. :)
ReplyDeleteVery in-depth. And it still suprises me on how this team is with this article.
Thanks for a great reead
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