One of the
reasons Arizona was so willing to trade Scherzer was because they thought he
would eventually wind up in the bullpen.
The Tigers virtually debunked that as Scherzer was able to pitch 195
innings in 2010 and 2011 with ERA’s of 3.50 and 4.43. However, Scherzer hasn’t been particularly
good in the rotation this year with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP (no matter how
much his defensive independent stats show how unlucky he’s been).
Scherzer’s
changeup has never been his best pitch, but this year it has been extremely bad:
2010 – (0.21)
2011 – (0.05)
2012 – (3.43)
Pitch f/x
agrees:
2010 – (0.11)
2011 – 0.04
2012 – (3.46)
This is very
important to a pitcher like Scherzer, because he uses his changeup to get
left-handed pitchers out. And left-handers
are crushing Scherzer this year:
2012:
Vs. LHB – 166
PA, .349/.415/.575, 8 HR, 35 K, 17 BB
Vs. RHB – 126
PA, .235/.296/.400, 5 HR, 45 K, 7 BB
Vs. LHB – 464
PA, .281/.345/.496, 19 HR, 84 K, 41 BB
Vs. RHB – 369
PA, .262/.301/.405, 10 HR, 90 K, 15 BB
He wasn’t as
effective against left-handers as right-handers in 2011 either, but was still
able to get them out, unlike this year. If Scherzer doesn’t
have an effective changeup, then he’s virtually a 2-pitch pitcher with his
fastball and slider, and it’s very hard for a pitcher to be an effective
starting pitcher with just 2 pitches.
Another
factor in why some pitchers can’t start is that they can’t go deep into
game. That’s something else that
Scherzer is experiencing this year.
2012:
1st
time through the batting order – 109 PA, .240/.324/.438, 5 HR, 33 K, 11 BB
2nd
time through the batting order – 108 PA, .286/.346/.459, 4 HR, 33 K, 8 BB
3rd
time through the batting order – 74 PA, .394/.438/.636, 4 HR, 14 K, 5 BB
Now most
pitchers tire as they go deep into games and get less effective. Scherzer experienced this last year, but not
to the point where he’s almost useless after going through the order twice.
2011:
1st
time through the order – 298 PA, .255/.313/.423, 10 HR, 69 K, 22 BB
2nd
time through the order – 292 PA, .275/.312/.500, 12 HR, 59 K, 13 BB
3rd
time through the order – 221 PA, .288/.356/.414, 5 HR, 43 K, 20 BB
Scherzer has
changed as a pitcher. He has gone from a
middle of the rotation stuff to a reliever.
It might be time to put him in the role that he’s performing in.
Great post. I agree 100%. If we fall 10 games out, we may see this and really give some of our young arms a shot.
ReplyDelete