Monday, June 4, 2012

AL Central Offense Breakdown

CHW – 4.81
CLE – 4.40
DET – 4.31
KCR – 3.98
MIN – 3.96

CHW - .750
DET - .742
KCR - .723
CLE - .714
MIN - .695

DET – 103
CLE – 102
CHW – 101
KCR – 99
MIN – 94

CHW - .328
DET - .324
CLE - .318
KCR - .315
MIN - .306

CHW – 103
DET – 102
CLE – 100
KCR – 97
MIN – 93

Chicago seems to be the leader on offense, with Cleveland and Detroit not far behind.  Kansas City is next and then at the bottom Minnesota. 

However, is Detroit under-performing?

Bases Empty:
DET - .736 OPS
KCR - .732 OPS
CHW - .719 OPS
CLE - .664 OPS
MIN - .654 OPS

Men on Base:
CHW - .794 OPS
CLE - .775 OPS
DET - .750 OPS
MIN - .749 OPS
KCR - .713 OPS

CHW - .791 OPS
DET - .774 OPS
CLE - .762 OPS
MIN - .740 OPS
KCR - .664 OPS

Detroit is the best in the division with the bases empty and 2nd in the division when hitting with RISP.  However, they are 3rd with men on base.
One of the biggest complaints on the Tigers is that they get men on base, but can’t bring them home.  Well, according to the numbers, they seem to be doing alright with men on base and in scoring position.  Is our perception wrong?  Are the Tigers really getting men on base?

CLE - .333
DET - .328
CHW - .327
KCR - .319
MIN - .319

CLE – 25.38
MIN – 23.74
DET – 23.06
CHW – 22.89
KCR – 22.56

This is the number of runners that are on base that a batter sees while he’s batting.  Some runners might be counted more than once because a runner on base could be on base for more than one batter.   I divided it by the number of games to even things out (some teams have played 53 games, some have played 54).  I hope that makes sense.   For comparison’s sake, the Tigers averaged 25.31 baserunners/game last year (with a .340 OBP).

I don’t think the Tigers are getting on base as much as we think they are. But they are scoring 14% of their baserunners, which is exactlyleague average

So why aren’t the Tigers scoring more runs?  League average runs/game is 4.40; Tigers are scoring 4.31 runs/game.  League average OPS is .728; Tigers OPS is .742.  There’s a high correlation between OPS and runs scoring.  How can the Tigers be above average in OPS, but below average in runs/game.  A few theories:

Inconsistency – The Tigers hitters have been inconsistent all year.  Brennan Boesch, Jhonny Peralta, Delmon Young and Alex Avila have been up and down this year, which could skew the numbers.  Not to mention having an inconsistent lineup with the recent injuries of Austin Jackson and Andy Dirks.  When they score, they score in bunches and then go in long droughts.  The question is, would it all even out by the end of the year?

Top heavy hitters – The Tigers have great production from Austin Jackson, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  However, the have had very bad production from Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch.   Great OPS hitters and poor OPS hitters even out when averaged, but doesn’t show up that way in the boxscore, skewing the numbers. 

What do you think?  What is wrong with the Tigers offense?  

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