Jhonny Peralta’s Offensive Production

Jhonny Peralta is hitting .267/.347/.405 so far this year with 4 HR, 18 RBI and a 106 OPS+ in 240 PA.  This is somewhat of a disappointment as he hit .299/.345/.478 with 21 HR, 86 RBI and a 123 OPS+ in a breakout season in 2011.  At only 30 years old, he was supposed to build off of that year and continue to be an offensive force.  However, except for his on-base percentage, he’s fallen off quite a bit back to his career numbers.  Was last year a fluke?  Or is Peralta getting unlucky this year?

As mentioned, his OBP has been up this year thanks mostly to his high BB rate, 10.4%.  It hadn’t reached 10% since his 2004 and 2005 seasons.  This is very encouraging.  His strikeout rate has been slightly decreasing since 2010 (16.7% in 2010; 16.5% in 2011; 16.3% so far in 2012).  This has given Peralta his best walk to strikeout ratio of his career.  So he must be seeing the ball pretty well this year.  His plate discipline numbers back this up too.  His swinging strike rate (swing and misses/total pitches) is the lowest of his career, 8.0% and his contact rate is the highest in his career at 82.9%. 

So, if he’s seeing the ball well, why hasn’t he been producing?  Well, according to FanGraphs, he has a 28.3% LD rate.  Not only is this the highest of his career, but it’s top 5 in all of baseball, behind Joey Votto (33.0%), Freddie Freeman (30.9%), Jason Kubel (29.5%) and Alejandro De Aza (29.4%).  Hitting line drives is important because they fall in for base hits more frequently than any other type of batted ball, typically around 72% of the time.  The fact that Peralta has hit this many line drives and has as low of a batting average as he does seems unusual.  One quick measurement of luck is to add .120 to his line drive rate and compare it to his BABIP; if it’s higher than he’s been unlucky, if it’s lower than he’s been lucky.  .283 + .120 = .403.  Peralta’s BABIP is currently at .308; which isn’t too far away from his career .314 mark.  However, putting it in perspective of his line drive rate shows that maybe Peralta has been a little unlucky this year.

Peralta’s HR/FB rate is currently at 7.0%, the lowest he’s ever put up.  Last year it was at 10.8% and his career mark it 11.0%, so this seems unusual.  His FB% of 32.9% is pretty low for him as the last 2 years it’s been 43.4% and 44.2%.  Hitting more line drives instead of fly balls is usually a good trade-off.  Sure, the homers decrease, but usually the average and sometimes the slugging percentage increase.  This hasn’t been the case for Peralta.  Although, we still have a little more than half a season to go, so maybe Peralta has a home run tear in him before the end of the season.

Peralta has a career .329 wOBA and 100 wRC+ and he currently has a .328 wOBA and 104 wOBA.  So it seems like he’s right where he should be.  However, the advanced numbers suggest something different.  Peralta has been seeing and hitting the ball in a way that should result in better results.  And maybe his luck is finally changing.  Over his last 78 PA, he’s hitting .324/.397/.529 with 2 HR.

I propose that we make Peralta the #5 hitter, where the Tigers have had difficulty getting consistent production.  Sure, the numbers on the surface show that this might not be a good idea, but as Peralta has shown over his last 21 games, his luck might already be changing and the Tigers could reap great reward from it.

The Tigers’ Plate Discipline This Year

Poster TigersFanATL observed that the Tigers don’t really work the count and this is the reason why the Tigers are having a terrible time having a consistent offense.  There are a few advantages in working the count.  For one, it could lead to more walks (when there’s more men on base, there’s a better chance that they’ll score).  Only the Orioles (7.5%) and Royals (6.7%) have a lower walk rate in the American League than the Tigers (7.6%).  There’s also a better chance that the pitcher will make a mistake that the batter can take advantage on.  Finally, it drives up the starter’s pitch count and they can get into the bullpen earlier (for example, the Tigers couldn’t touch Paul Maholm last night, but scored 3 runs after he was replaced).

I decided to look at the numbers to see how the Tigers look on plate discipline.

In pitches/PA, the Tigers are dead last in the American League.  In all of baseball, they are tied with the Phillies at 3.72 pitches/PA and only the Cardinals are slightly lower at 3.71 pitches/PA.  Delmon Young is the worst everyday player at working the count as he only sees 3.28 pitches/PA.  Brennan Boesch isn’t too far behind; he’s 7^th lowest at 3.38 pitches/PA.  The White Sox are the only other team to have 2 players in the bottom 10 (Alex Rios is 2^nd at 3.31 pitches/PA and A.J. Pierzynski is 10^th at 3.40 pitches/PA).  The league average is 3.85 pitches/PA.  Here’s how some of the other Tigers look:

Alex Avila – 4.17

Austin Jackson – 4.12

Danny Worth – 3.95

Jhonny Peralta – 3.94

Ryan Raburn – 3.85

Don Kelly – 3.88

Prince Fielder – 3.80

Miguel Cabrera – 3.68

Andy Dirks – 3.68

Quintin Berry – 3.65

Ramon Santiago – 3.57

Brennan Boesch – 3.38

Delmon Young – 3.28

The Tigers have been very aggressive; they swing 30% of the time at the first pitch, which is tops in the American League.  Only Washington (33%), Cincinnati (32%), St. Louis and San Diego (31%) are higher.  Surprisingly, it’s Josh Hamilton and Freddie Freeman who are tops in baseball in this stat; swinging at the first pitch exactly half of the time (50%).  Delmon Young is at 44%, the highest on the Tigers.

The one stat that doesn’t make much sense is that the Tigers are leading all of baseball in the amount of foul balls per strikes seen at 29%.  If the Tigers are fouling off that many pitches, it would seem that they are working the count and thus their pitches/PA should be high.  Unless, of course, the amount of strikes seen is low.

According to FanGraphs, the Tigers are swinging at more pitches in the strike zone than any other team in baseball at 67.7% of the time.  And according to Baseball-Reference, they are putting the ball in play 31% of the time, tied for 2^nd with the Royals, Giants, Angels, Yankees and Rangers.  Only the Phillies are higher at 32%.  This should be a good thing, as it prevents the Tigers from striking out (which it is, the Tigers are only striking out 17.8% of the time; league average is 18.8%) and also forces the other team’s defense to make a play. 

The Tigers are hitting line drives 21.6% of the time, which is quite good; only the Red Sox (22.7%), Rangers (22%), Royals (21.8%) and White Sox (21.7%) are better in the American League.  They are also hitting ground balls only 42% of the time (only the Red Sox are lower at 40.8%).  So, the Tigers have put a lot of balls in play, but they are also hitting the ball fairly well too; line drives are good because they have the best chance at falling in for a base hit (about 70-72% of the time) and avoiding ground balls is good because it’s hard to hit for power when hitting the ball on the ground (and you generally need speed to get an infield hit). 

So, the Tigers should have a high rate on which balls fall in for hits – and they do, a .300 BABIP.  Only the Rangers (.319) and Red Sox (.310) are higher in the American League.

The Tigers have a very aggressive approach when it comes to hitting.  It prevents them from striking out, but it also prevents them from walking.  They don’t see a lot of pitches, but when they do put the ball in play, good things are happening.  What they lack is balance.  The Tigers have a lot of the same type of hitters, who swing early and often – and this has led to an inconsistent offense.  What they need are a few players who can work the count and can draw walks.  This is why Austin Jackson and Alex Avila are so important to this Tigers offense.  They are both averaging over 4 pitches/ PA and have walk rates over 11.5%.  Unfortunately, both have missed time on the DL.  Jackson is now back; let’s hope for a speedy recovery for Avila.  

AL Central Offense Breakdown

Runs/Game:
CHW – 4.81
CLE – 4.40
DET – 4.31
KCR – 3.98
MIN – 3.96

OPS:
CHW - .750
DET - .742
KCR - .723
CLE - .714
MIN - .695

OPS+:
DET – 103
CLE – 102
CHW – 101
KCR – 99
MIN – 94

wOBA:
CHW - .328
DET - .324
CLE - .318
KCR - .315
MIN - .306

wRC+:
CHW – 103
DET – 102
CLE – 100
KCR – 97
MIN – 93

Chicago seems to be the leader on offense, with Cleveland and Detroit not far behind.  Kansas City is next and then at the bottom Minnesota. 

However, is Detroit under-performing?

Bases Empty:
DET - .736 OPS
KCR - .732 OPS
CHW - .719 OPS
CLE - .664 OPS
MIN - .654 OPS

Men on Base:
CHW - .794 OPS
CLE - .775 OPS
DET - .750 OPS
MIN - .749 OPS
KCR - .713 OPS

RISP:
CHW - .791 OPS
DET - .774 OPS
CLE - .762 OPS
MIN - .740 OPS
KCR - .664 OPS

Detroit is the best in the division with the bases empty and 2^nd in the division when hitting with RISP.  However, they are 3^rd with men on base.

 

One of the biggest complaints on the Tigers is that they get men on base, but can’t bring them home.  Well, according to the numbers, they seem to be doing alright with men on base and in scoring position.  Is our perception wrong?  Are the Tigers really getting men on base?

OBP:
CLE - .333
DET - .328
CHW - .327
KCR - .319
MIN - .319

Baserunners/game:
CLE – 25.38
MIN – 23.74
DET – 23.06
CHW – 22.89
KCR – 22.56

This is the number of runners that are on base that a batter sees while he’s batting.  Some runners might be counted more than once because a runner on base could be on base for more than one batter.   I divided it by the number of games to even things out (some teams have played 53 games, some have played 54).  I hope that makes sense.   For comparison’s sake, the Tigers averaged 25.31 baserunners/game last year (with a .340 OBP).

I don’t think the Tigers are getting on base as much as we think they are. But they are scoring 14% of their baserunners, which is exactlyleague average. 

So why aren’t the Tigers scoring more runs?  League average runs/game is 4.40; Tigers are scoring 4.31 runs/game.  League average OPS is .728; Tigers OPS is .742.  There’s a high correlation between OPS and runs scoring.  How can the Tigers be above average in OPS, but below average in runs/game.  A few theories:

Inconsistency – The Tigers hitters have been inconsistent all year.  Brennan Boesch, Jhonny Peralta, Delmon Young and Alex Avila have been up and down this year, which could skew the numbers.  Not to mention having an inconsistent lineup with the recent injuries of Austin Jackson and Andy Dirks.  When they score, they score in bunches and then go in long droughts.  The question is, would it all even out by the end of the year?

Top heavy hitters – The Tigers have great production from Austin Jackson, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  However, the have had very bad production from Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch.   Great OPS hitters and poor OPS hitters even out when averaged, but doesn’t show up that way in the boxscore, skewing the numbers. 

What do you think?  What is wrong with the Tigers offense?