Run Producing Efficiency 2012

One of the reasons I don’t like to use RBI is that it completely ignores playing time and opportunity.  Very rarely do you see someone use hits to show one player is better than another; it’s always batting average (hits/AB).  Using AB introduces playing time as players don’t generally end up with the same amount of AB (due to things like batting order placement).  This is just the “fair” thing to do as rate stats put everyone on a level playing field.

Baseball-reference actually shows a rate stat on how efficient a player is at scoring their base runners.  This isn’t a flawless stat by any means, as it credits a player with things that don’t result in an RBI (such as runs scoring on double plays, errors and wild pitches) and it also ignores HR and how many runners are on each base (a runner on 1st is treated the same as a runner on 3rd, who is easier to score).  But it does answer the question, “how often do the base runners score when a particular player is up to bat.”  Some players are just better run producers than others and unlike RBI, this factors in opportunity.   

2012 Detroit Tigers (min 50 PA): 

		BaseRunners
	PA	BR	BRS	BRS% ▾
Miguel Cabrera	697	444	98	22%
Prince Fielder*	690	456	80	18%
Quintin Berry*	330	171	27	16%
Austin Jackson	617	320	52	16%
Alex Avila*	434	264	39	15%
League Average				15%
Brennan Boesch*	503	329	46	14%
Andy Dirks*	344	207	28	14%
Jhonny Peralta	585	376	52	14%
Delmon Young	608	415	56	13%
Avisail Garcia	51	26	3	12%
Omar Infante	241	136	16	12%
Ramon Santiago#	259	168	15	9%
Gerald Laird	191	120	10	8%
Ryan Raburn	222	142	11	8%
Don Kelly*	127	87	6	7%
Danny Worth	90	49	3	6%
Team Total	6119	3793	550	15%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2012.

It comes at no surprise that Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are at the top of the Tigers leader board.  People griping about Delmon Young staying the 5^th spot have a legitimate argument as he was the least efficient starting player in converting base runners into runs at 13%.  Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch, Andy Dirks and Jhonny Peralta would have all been a better options, given that they were more efficient in scoring their base runners (although nothing is certain that they would've kept their efficiency rating as high given more playing time).  For example, there’s probably some noise in Quintin Berry being at 16% given his small sample size (and overall talent level). Also, this stat probably isn’t the most predictive stat to use.  Check out Delmon Young’s career:

Delmon Young Career:

				BaseRunners
Year	Age	Tm	PA	BR	BRS	BRS%
2006	20	TBD	131	64	8	13%
2007	21	TBD	681	475	85	18%
2008	22	MIN	623	435	62	14%
2009	23	MIN	416	261	51	20%
2010	24	MIN	613	456	94	21%
2011	25	TOT	503	302	53	18%
2012	26	DET	608	415	56	13%
7 Yrs			3575	2408	409	17%
MLB Averages						15%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2012.

From 2009-2011, he was in the 18-21% range, which would’ve been perfect for the #5 spot.  What happened?  Well, one theory would be that he’s just not as good of a hitter with runners on base in 2012 as he was the previous 3 years (from 2009-2011, Delmon hit .295/.322/.457/.779 with runners on base.  In 2012, Delmon hit .261/.288/.392/.680 with runners on base).  Also, Delmon Young might have been in lineups with faster runners, who were able to easily score more often.  In 2012, Delmon was hitting behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, who aren’t exactly known for their speed.  Lee Panas showed that the Tigers were hurt by their lack of speed in scoring runs in 2012.  

By contrast, though, Victor Martinez has been much more consistent in turning his base runners into runs:

Victor Martinez Career:

				BaseRunners
Year	Age	Tm	PA	BR	BRS	BRS%
2002	23	CLE	36	19	4	21%
2003	24	CLE	174	106	16	15%
2004	25	CLE	591	421	87	21%
2005	26	CLE	622	412	61	15%
2006	27	CLE	652	474	78	16%
2007	28	CLE	645	449	90	20%
2008	29	CLE	294	206	33	16%
2009	30	TOT	672	468	87	19%
2010	31	BOS	538	358	60	17%
2011	32	DET	595	450	95	21%
10 Yrs			4819	3363	611	18%
MLB Averages						15%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 11/1/2012.

Even at the low end at 15-16%, is still better than what Delmon Young showed in 2012.  If V-Mart is able to get back to being productive after having 2012 off due to an ACL tear, then the Tigers should be much better off with him batting 5^th than Delmon Young (as if it wasn't already obvious).  

Just in case you're wondering, Miguel Cabrera was 2^nd in all of baseball behind Josh Hamilton, minimum 500 PA:

2012 Leaders (min 500 PA):

				BaseRunners
Rk		PA	Tm	BR	BRS	BRS% ▾
32	Josh Hamilton*	636	TEX	383	88	23%
37	Miguel Cabrera	697	DET	444	98	22%
39	Allen Craig	514	STL	354	73	21%
40	Adrian Gonzalez*	684	TOT	438	92	21%
42	Torii Hunter	584	LAA	370	78	21%
	LgAvg per 600 PA			358	51	14%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2012.

 It’s interesting to note that Torii Hunter was 5^th in all of baseball at 21%, a player that many Tiger fans want to get to play RF for the Tigers next year. 

Outfield Analysis and Future Options

After struggling for much of the season, the Tigers found a solid corner outfield rotation of Andy Dirks, Quintin Berry, and Avisail Garcia. Here, I plan on evaluating the potential of each of these players going into next season and beyond.

Now, before I get into the meat of this analysis, there are some terms that need to be explained. The main numbers presented here are weighted On Base Average (wOBA) and weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). I could go into detail about them, but I'd rather let the experts do it. I would strongly recommend going to http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/ and http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/woba/ for simple, well thought out explanations. I'd also recommend poking around on Fangraphs' glossary and familiarizing yourself with most of these statistics since they'll come up at various points.

First, let’s start with Andy Dirks who really came into his own this season, posting a triple slash of .322/.370/.487 with 8 homers for a wOBA of .368 and a wRC+ of 133.  For reference, Victor Martinez .369 wOBA and a 131 wRC+ last season. Unfortunately, there are signs of potential regression for Dirks. He had a BABIP of .365, which is approximately .060 points above league average. If he regresses to a reasonable number, say to .320 due to his solid speed, his line would drop to something in the range of .280/.330/.440. If he was a centerfielder, that would make him above average but in a corner, that’s 4^th outfielder material.

Quintin Berry certainly provided a huge spark for the Tigers when Austin Jackson went down in May, hitting .333 with a .395 OBP and .293/.389 in June. Unfortunately, he fell off dramatically after June, hitting .250, .176, and .212 in the subsequent months. This was a function of his BABIP normalizing following a scorching start to his season. A slap hitting outfielder who rates below average defensively and strikes out 24.2% of the time is not a regular in the major leagues. He does still have value as a left handed bench bat and extremely efficient pinch runner.

Now, we get to the real future of the Tigers outfield, Avisail Garcia. A true 5 tool player, Garcia had a breakout 2012 in the minors .289/.324/.447 with 8 home runs and 14 steals in A+ before really turning it on in AA to a tune of .312/.345/.465 with 6 bombs and 9 steals. Combining speed and power with a huge arm in right field, Garcia is a very exciting player. Despite this, I still believe he is not ready for the big show. He has absolutely no plate discipline, posting horrible walk rates of 3.8% and 3.1% in the minors this year. Unless he can figure out how to take the right pitches, he’ll get the Delmon Young treatment which means nothing in the zone because he swings at everything in sight.

The Tigers have a clear need in at least one corner spot, allowing a platoon in the other. Now, I’ll analyze the most noteworthy offseason outfield targets.

Free Agent Outfielders:
Angel Pagan
Ryan Ludwick
Scott Hairston
Josh Hamilton
Ichiro Suzuki
Michael Bourn
Reed Johnson
Cody Ross
Torii Hunter
Shane Victorino
Nick Swisher
B.J. Upton
Melky Cabrera

Trade Targets:
Peter Bourjos
David DeJesus
Coco Crisp
Chris Heisey
Drew Stubbs

Hamilton is really, really scary due to his well-documented past, but he would give the Tigers an incredible lineup for the next few seasons. I would sign him for something in the range of 3/75, wouldn’t touch him for anything longer.

Bourn is a bit of a pipe dream. He COULD be undervalued due to general undervaluing of defense and base running. Should and could get $100 million over 5 or 6 years, but if it falls to 5/75 it would be a steal.

Ludwick and Pagan, despite being vastly different players, are probably too expensive given their level of production since they’re coming off very nice (possibly overrated) seasons, most likely pushing them towards multiyear $10 million or higher a season contracts. (3/30 for Ludwick, 4/45 for Pagan)

Victorino is an interesting bounce back candidate.  After being outstanding in 2011, he really struggled in 2012 due to a BABIP of .278. Despite his offensive struggles, he still managed 3.3 WAR due to good defense and speed.

Ichiro would be a perfect fit for our outfield but could be overpriced based solely on name value. I’d be comfortable with a 2/20 level deal, but not much more.

BJ Upton, while never living up to his potential, has been an above average player for his entire career. He would provide strong defense, pop, and speed despite having poor on base skills. Due to his untapped potential he’s likely to command a deal in the range of 4/40 million which would be better served going after a better player along the lines of Bourn or Pagan.

Swisher has a solid bat, posting a career .364 OBP with an average of 28 home runs per season. He is most likely going to cost in the range of 5/80 after a poor showing in the playoffs and he’s 32 years old. Due to age, I wouldn’t want to commit to more than three guaranteed years in the $15 million range which is likely well below his asking price.

Hunter seems likely to be resigned by the Angels even though recent reports have them a ways off on contract length and value, and there are reasons to have reservations about a 37 year old coming off of a career year. I wouldn’t go above 2/20 and that might be pushing it.

Ross is an outstanding platoon vs. LH pitching (career 141 wRC+) and is probably the best suited among the platoon based players to play fulltime due to a not necessarily horrible 93 wRC+ vs. RH, but will likely be priced out of a reasonable range for his services.

Hairston and Johnson are both serviceable platoon outfielders’ vs LH, both with wRC+ around 120. Would leave us with corner outfielder platoons of Dirks/(Hairston or Johnson) and Berry/Garcia. Only issue is that it Garcia is potentially not ready to play a full season even as a platoon

Dejesus is a platoon bat versus RH pitching but would have to be traded for. After a quality season for the Cubs last year, he may not be available at a reasonable price.

An extremely intriguing option is Melky Cabrera. Sure, his reputation has taken a hit due to the PED violation, but this leaves him ripe for the picking since the multi-year big money contract he was looking at is now most likely off the table. Some people want to link his success over the last two years to his PED use, but the two are simply not scientifically related. He is not a power hitter, and steroids do not increase the pure hit tool. If he’s willing to take a 2 or 3 year deal with an AAV around $7-8 million I would jump all over that.

Crisp is very capable of being an above average corner outfielder after being nearly a scratch centerfielder (-0.9 UZR) and the Athletics have a plethora of outfielders after the trade for Chris Young. Billy Beane has said he will not trade from his outfield depth but the right offer could certainly sway him. A few mid-level minor league pitchers should be able to pry Crisp from the A’s.

Bourjos is an interesting option since his defense is well above average in center let along a corner. He’s a nice bounce back candidate, even though he’ll never hit .300 and his walk rate hasn’t been great, but he runs and fields well enough to be a 3-4 win player without an outstanding OBP. He is only theoretically available assuming that Torii Hunter is resigned by the Angels.

Heisey and Stubbs are both underachievers for the Cincinnati Reds. Neither has lived up to their tools and would essentially be short term solutions unless Stubbs manages to turn around his very uncomfortable downward trend.  Both play solid defense, with Stubbs rating as well above average and he also runs much better than Heisey. Both are going to be 27 heading into next year, right in their theoretical primes and if they are going to turn it around, 2013 is as logical a time as any other.

Ideally, we would pick up a strong defensive/base running outfielder to help offset our poor defense at nearly every other position on the field. That leaves players such as Pagan, Victorino, Bourjos, and Upton as top options on my list. If the Tigers resign Anibal Sanchez, I'd have to believe the most likely option is going after either Hairston or Johnson and rolling with a platoon in both corners. If Pagan doesn't command a massive deal, he’s probably my favorite long term answer since he would provide speed and above average defense, though Bourjos is a personal favorite. All of these options should really help to lengthen our lineup, especially with the imminent return of Victor Martinez. As long as the Tigers acquire someone to play a corner, they should go into next year in a much better defensive position.