Run Producing Efficiency 2012

One of the reasons I don’t like to use RBI is that it completely ignores playing time and opportunity.  Very rarely do you see someone use hits to show one player is better than another; it’s always batting average (hits/AB).  Using AB introduces playing time as players don’t generally end up with the same amount of AB (due to things like batting order placement).  This is just the “fair” thing to do as rate stats put everyone on a level playing field.

Baseball-reference actually shows a rate stat on how efficient a player is at scoring their base runners.  This isn’t a flawless stat by any means, as it credits a player with things that don’t result in an RBI (such as runs scoring on double plays, errors and wild pitches) and it also ignores HR and how many runners are on each base (a runner on 1st is treated the same as a runner on 3rd, who is easier to score).  But it does answer the question, “how often do the base runners score when a particular player is up to bat.”  Some players are just better run producers than others and unlike RBI, this factors in opportunity.   

2012 Detroit Tigers (min 50 PA): 

		BaseRunners
	PA	BR	BRS	BRS% ▾
Miguel Cabrera	697	444	98	22%
Prince Fielder*	690	456	80	18%
Quintin Berry*	330	171	27	16%
Austin Jackson	617	320	52	16%
Alex Avila*	434	264	39	15%
League Average				15%
Brennan Boesch*	503	329	46	14%
Andy Dirks*	344	207	28	14%
Jhonny Peralta	585	376	52	14%
Delmon Young	608	415	56	13%
Avisail Garcia	51	26	3	12%
Omar Infante	241	136	16	12%
Ramon Santiago#	259	168	15	9%
Gerald Laird	191	120	10	8%
Ryan Raburn	222	142	11	8%
Don Kelly*	127	87	6	7%
Danny Worth	90	49	3	6%
Team Total	6119	3793	550	15%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2012.

It comes at no surprise that Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are at the top of the Tigers leader board.  People griping about Delmon Young staying the 5^th spot have a legitimate argument as he was the least efficient starting player in converting base runners into runs at 13%.  Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch, Andy Dirks and Jhonny Peralta would have all been a better options, given that they were more efficient in scoring their base runners (although nothing is certain that they would've kept their efficiency rating as high given more playing time).  For example, there’s probably some noise in Quintin Berry being at 16% given his small sample size (and overall talent level). Also, this stat probably isn’t the most predictive stat to use.  Check out Delmon Young’s career:

Delmon Young Career:

				BaseRunners
Year	Age	Tm	PA	BR	BRS	BRS%
2006	20	TBD	131	64	8	13%
2007	21	TBD	681	475	85	18%
2008	22	MIN	623	435	62	14%
2009	23	MIN	416	261	51	20%
2010	24	MIN	613	456	94	21%
2011	25	TOT	503	302	53	18%
2012	26	DET	608	415	56	13%
7 Yrs			3575	2408	409	17%
MLB Averages						15%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2012.

From 2009-2011, he was in the 18-21% range, which would’ve been perfect for the #5 spot.  What happened?  Well, one theory would be that he’s just not as good of a hitter with runners on base in 2012 as he was the previous 3 years (from 2009-2011, Delmon hit .295/.322/.457/.779 with runners on base.  In 2012, Delmon hit .261/.288/.392/.680 with runners on base).  Also, Delmon Young might have been in lineups with faster runners, who were able to easily score more often.  In 2012, Delmon was hitting behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, who aren’t exactly known for their speed.  Lee Panas showed that the Tigers were hurt by their lack of speed in scoring runs in 2012.  

By contrast, though, Victor Martinez has been much more consistent in turning his base runners into runs:

Victor Martinez Career:

				BaseRunners
Year	Age	Tm	PA	BR	BRS	BRS%
2002	23	CLE	36	19	4	21%
2003	24	CLE	174	106	16	15%
2004	25	CLE	591	421	87	21%
2005	26	CLE	622	412	61	15%
2006	27	CLE	652	474	78	16%
2007	28	CLE	645	449	90	20%
2008	29	CLE	294	206	33	16%
2009	30	TOT	672	468	87	19%
2010	31	BOS	538	358	60	17%
2011	32	DET	595	450	95	21%
10 Yrs			4819	3363	611	18%
MLB Averages						15%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 11/1/2012.

Even at the low end at 15-16%, is still better than what Delmon Young showed in 2012.  If V-Mart is able to get back to being productive after having 2012 off due to an ACL tear, then the Tigers should be much better off with him batting 5^th than Delmon Young (as if it wasn't already obvious).  

Just in case you're wondering, Miguel Cabrera was 2^nd in all of baseball behind Josh Hamilton, minimum 500 PA:

2012 Leaders (min 500 PA):

				BaseRunners
Rk		PA	Tm	BR	BRS	BRS% ▾
32	Josh Hamilton*	636	TEX	383	88	23%
37	Miguel Cabrera	697	DET	444	98	22%
39	Allen Craig	514	STL	354	73	21%
40	Adrian Gonzalez*	684	TOT	438	92	21%
42	Torii Hunter	584	LAA	370	78	21%
	LgAvg per 600 PA			358	51	14%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2012.

 It’s interesting to note that Torii Hunter was 5^th in all of baseball at 21%, a player that many Tiger fans want to get to play RF for the Tigers next year.