Wednesday, November 21, 2012

2013 Payroll: What it is and what it could be.

Now that the off-season is underway, I would like to take a look at some payroll scenarios for the Tigers in 2013.

Based on projected salary values and arbitration projections from Baseball Reference and MLBTraderumors, here is how the Tigers 2013 roster looks as it stands right now, if they go with these 25 guys out of spring training.

Player2013 Salary
Prince Fielder$23,000,000
Miguel Cabrera$21,000,000
Justin Verlander$20,000,000
Victor Martinez$13,000,000
Torii Hunter$13,000,000
Jhonny Peralta$6,000,000
Joaquin Benoit$5,500,000
Omar Infante$4,000,000
Octavio Dotel$3,500,000
Ramon Santiago$2,100,000
Max Scherzer$7,500,000
Rick Porcello$4,700,000
Phil Coke$1,700,000
Alex Avila$2,500,000
Doug Fister$3,800,000
Brennan Boesch$2,100,000
Austin Jackson$3,100,000
Al Alburquerque$510,000
Daniel Schlereth$510,000
Andy Dirks$485,000
Brayan Villarreal$485,000
Drew Smyly$485,000
Quintin Berry$485,000
Bruce Rondon$480,000
Bryan Holaday$480,000

Brandon Inge$500,000* option buyout

Arb Costs - Total$29,320,000
Arb Costs - 1$11,500,000
Arb Costs - 2$13,900,000
Arb Costs - 3


Diff from 2012($6,920,000) increase

Again, this is how it would look, if we make no further moves.

Now lets have some fun...

By some recent projections of TV contract increases, it has been suggested the Tigers could sustain a payroll of around $160M. So we'll keep that as our upper limit

Say the Tigers sign Anibal Sanchez. I think the likely result would be that Rick Porcello gets traded, instead of Smyly going to the bullpen or back to Toledo.

By recent rumors, Sanchez is asking for 6 yrs/$ 90M. So, at $15M per season, minus Porcello's expected arbitration salary, total payroll would increase by $10.2M to $155M.

That leaves $5M to make more moves to bring in a LF to platoon with Dirks. But WAIT, there's MORE!

Say they do bring in a RH outfielder, who gets the axe from the projected roster I outlined? My guess, its Boesch. He still carries some trade value and is set to make $2.1M So if they dump him, the payroll space increases to $7.1M. That's enough for a substantial upgrade in the OF, or a RH platoon LF and maybe even another bullpen arm.

Or... Stephen Drew. According to recent rumors, the Diamondbacks have interest in Jhonny Peralta, and the Tigers have interest in Stephen Drew. Dombrowski said they would not move Peralta unless they could upgrade at SS. The Tigers might see Drew as such an upgrade. So, Drew at $10M (3yrs/ $30M) minus Peralta ($6M) leaves the total payroll at $159M.

Just some interesting possibilities that could happen in the next few months.

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