…and maybe
even better.
Justin
Verlander only has a .600 winning percentage this year (6-4 W/L) compared to
last year’s .828 winning percentage (24-5 W/L).
Also, he’s ERA is higher (2.66 compared to 2.40 last year) as well as
his WHIP (0.97 compared to 0.92 last year).
Looking at these old school stats, one could conclude that Verlander is
slightly worse this year than last year.
However, we’re in an age where more information is available and that
information says that Verlander has been even better than these stats suggest.
Winning
percentage is dependent on run support and a good bullpen. Last year, Verlander had 4.7 runs of support
/game; this year, it’s only 3.4 runs/game.
Also, last year, the Tigers won every game leading after the 7th
inning. This year, they haven’t been as
perfect, losing 5 games leading after the 7th inning. ERA and WHIP is somewhat dependent on the
defense; if the defense can’t make a play because of poor range, then it’ll go
as a hit instead of an error. The Tigers’
defense this year has been below average – way below average. The Tigers rank 29th in both UZR
and DRS.
Several
defensive independent stats:
2011
Verlander – 2.99 FIP, 3.12* xFIP, 3.09 tERA, 2.99 SIERA
2012
Verlander – 2.54* FIP, 3.18 xFIP, 3.03* tERA, 2.95* SIERA
*Career
bests.
All very
close to last year and all better than last year except for xFIP. xFIP adjusts for the league average HR
rate. Last year, Verlander had an 8.8%
HR/FB, the highest it’s been since 2006 when it was 10.3%. This year, it’s only 6.1%. Verlander has always had a lower than average
HR rate, so maintaining that this year isn’t out of the question. However, his career is 7.7%, so a slight
increase could be expected. FIP also
heavily factors in strikeout rates and Verlander has a higher K/9 this year
than last year (9.12 in 2012; 8.79 in 2011).
His WHIP is
higher this year, despite having the same BB rate (2.04 BB/9). His LD rate is up this year to 22.6% compared
to 17.7% last year and thus his BABIP is higher (.265 compared to .236 last
year). However, his batting against line
is pretty close to last year’s:
2011 -
.192/.242/.313/.555
2012 -
.205/.254/.314/.568
His slugging
against is almost exactly the same as last year. Again, this is mainly due to the lower HR
rate. His ground ball percentage is
almost exactly the same as last year (40.2% in 2011; 40.0% in 2012). This means that some of the fly balls that
were hit last year and being changed into line drives this year. However, this is an arbitrary stat; sometimes
there is little difference between a line drive and a fly ball. For example, Baseball-reference shows
Verlander having a 19% LD rate this year and a 17% LD rate in 2011. Still higher, so there is proof that
Verlander has been a little bit more hittable this year. However, the higher strikeout rate and lower
HR rate kind of balances it out.
His swinging
strike rate (swing and misses/total pitches) is at 11.7% this year and his
contact rate is only at 75.3% this year, both are career bests for him. Verlander has an fWAR of 3.4 in 14 starts
this year; at that rate he’ll have an 8.3 fWAR in 34 starts, which will match
is career high set in 2009 (Verlander has a 7.0 fWAR last year). At his current pace, Verlander could have the
best season of his career this year.
Just imagine
how Verlander would look on even an average defensive team.
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