Brennan
Boesch has been a disappointment this year.
Many people predicted that this would be Boesch’s breakout season, being
his 3rd year in the league and hitting in front of sluggers Miguel
Cabrera and Prince Fielder. However, he’s
taking a step backwards, especially with the BB rate. Here’s what he’s doing compared to the last 2
years:
2010 – .512
PA, 256/.320/.416, 14 HR, 7.8% BB%, 19.3% K%
2011 – 472 PA,
.283/.341/.458, 16 HR, 7.4% BB%, 17.6% K%
2012 – 208 PA,
.234/.269/.355, 5 HR, 3.8% BB%, 18.8% K%
Looking
deeper into the stats, it seems like the problem is only happening at home.
2012:
Home – 101
PA, .182/.198/.303, 4 HR, 1.0% BB%, 20.8% K%
Road – 107
PA, .286/.336/.408, 1 HR, 6.5% BB%, 16.8% K%
Except for
decreasing power, his road numbers look like what everyone was expecting Boesch
to do this year. What’s causing this? Does he have a different approach on the road
than at home? Is it due to harder
competition at home? Is it a small
sample anomaly that will correct itself over time? Are balls just not falling in for hits at
home?
2012 Balls in
Play:
Home – 10.3%
LD, 50.0% GB, 39.7% FB, 12.9% HR/FB, .189 BABIP
Road – 22.2%
LD, 39.3% GB, 38.3% FB, 3.2% HR/FB, .338 BABIP
Half of his
balls in play have been ground balls at home and his line drive rate is way down.
It is just over 100 PA, so it very well could be an anomaly. But you have to wonder…is Boesch trying to hit
more ground balls at Comerica? Factor in
the BB rate and it’s very possible that he just isn’t seeing the ball well at
home.
Has this
always been the case?
2010 Balls in
Play:
Home – 268
PA, .292/.369/.475,7 HR, 9.7% BB%, 15.3% K%
16.2% LD, 45.2% GB, 38.6% FB, 9.2% HR/FB, .326 BABIP
16.2% LD, 45.2% GB, 38.6% FB, 9.2% HR/FB, .326 BABIP
Road – 244
PA, .219/.266/.355, 7 HR, 5.7 BB%, 22.5% K%
14.0% LD, 45.0% GB, 40.9% FB, 10.0% HR/FB, .262 BABIP
14.0% LD, 45.0% GB, 40.9% FB, 10.0% HR/FB, .262 BABIP
2011 Balls in
Play:
Home – 242
PA, .289/.347/.486, 9 HR, 7.9% BB%, 14.5% K%
18.9% LD, 44.9% GB, 36.2% FB, 13.4% HR/FB, .305 BABIP
18.9% LD, 44.9% GB, 36.2% FB, 13.4% HR/FB, .305 BABIP
Road – 230
PA, .276/.335/.429, 7 HR, 7.0% BB%, 20.9% K%
17.3% LD, 40.7% GB, 42.0 FB, 10.3% HR/FB, .327 BABIP
17.3% LD, 40.7% GB, 42.0 FB, 10.3% HR/FB, .327 BABIP
Boesch hit
much better at home than on the road in 2010, but according to the batted ball
ratios, his approach was about the same.
His lower BABIP explains why is production was down on the road. In 2011, everything is about even.
So what is
different about Comerica Park in 2012 than it was the last 2 years? The scoreboard? Is the new scoreboard causing Boesch not to
see the ball well in 2012? Is this
happening to other left-handed hitters?
And what do
we do with Brennan Boesch? Obviously we
can’t bench him at home and only play him on the road. Do we option him down to AAA? Do we just play him and hope that it gets
corrected?
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