Has Miguel Cabrera Peaked?

In 2013, Miguel Cabrera had an amazing year, posting a 192 wRC+.  This is the best mark he's ever put up, 15 points higher than his 2nd best season in 2011.  Now that Cabrera is going to be on the other side of 30, it has me wondering if this is going to be the best year of his career?  Did we just witness the best that Cabrera has to offer?

The following chart is taken from the Hardball Times by Mitchel Lichtman in a 2009 article.  It shows the normal aging curve of MLB players:

The chart shows that most players have their best seasons around age 26-29 and then start their decline.  Cabrera is going to have his age-31 season in 2014.  

Using the tools at FanGraphs, I filtered the table to show who had reached 190 wRC+ over the last 30 years.  Only six other players have done it along with Cabrera: Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire and Jason Giambi.  Out of those names, only Bonds and McGwire had their 190+ wRC+ seasons after the age of 30.  Both (along with Giambi) have been linked to steroids, so their numbers could be misleading.  

The two "clean" players, Thomas and Bagwell both had their best season when they were 26, both in 1994 with the same 205 wRC+ (and both won MVPs that season).  Here is how Cabrera compares with them, using wRC+:

Age	Miguel Cabrera	Jeff Bagwell	Frank Thomas
20	106
21	129
22	146
23	153	138	179
24	142	133	175
25	129	145	170
26	143	205	205
27	171	140	168
28	177	173	179
29	166	163	126
30	192	162	126
31		166	160
32		153
33		143	119
34		138	147
35		131	157
36		118
37			139
38			127

And in chart form:

I eliminated all the years that didn't have large enough PA samples.  Now, this isn't a perfect comparison.  Bagwell and Thomas didn't have their first full years until they were 23, while Cabrera was 20.  Bagwell and Thomas also had their peak seasons four years younger than Cabrera was in 2013.  It could be possible that Cabrera won't age the same way and he'll have another season just as good or even better than 2013.  However, that would be a very unique case for someone that hasn't been linked to steroids in recent years.  

There are also other factors, such as his groin injury and lineup protection (if you believe that sort of thing exists).  This also isn't to say that Cabrera won't have another great season.  Even if he regresses back to his 2010-2012 levels, that's still MVP-worthy.  The question still remains, though, will he have another year as great as his 2013 season?  The answer is probably not. 

This is just something to think about as I'm preparing for my 2014 predictions.  

Joe Nathan Signing Reaction

The Tigers have signed Joe Nathan to a 2 year/$20 million deal to fill the closer role.  Last year, the Tigers decided not to make this a priority which resulted in a roller-coaster ride of events:

• Pre-Spring Training - Bruce Rondon, while not officially named the closer, was the most likely candidate.
• March 28th - Tigers option Rondon to AAA, go with a "Closer by Committee."
• April 1st - Phil Coke records a save on opening day, retiring the last 2 batters of the game.
• April 3rd - Phil Coke records a blown save, allowing 2 runs in the 9th.
• April 4th - Jose Valverde signs a $2 million deal, reports to Lakeland.
• April 5th - Drew Smyly records a perfect 4-inning save.  
• April 10th and April 12th - Tigers get blown saves by Octavio Dotel and Drew Smyly before it reaches the 9th inning.
• April 17th - Joaquin Benoit pitches a scoreless 14th inning for his first save of the year.
• April 24th - Jose Valverde gets called up and records his first save of 2013.  
• April 24th - June 12th - Valverde is the primary closer, recording 9 saves, 3 blown saves and a 4.15 ERA.  
• June 16th - Joaquin Benoit records a save as it looks like it's back to Closer by Committee.
• June 17th - Drew Smyly records a perfect 3-inning save. 
• June 21st - Jose Valverde DFA.  He would accept a AAA assignment and later would be outright released.  He ended up with a 5.59 ERA for the Tigers in 2013.
• June 28th - End of Season - Joaquin Benoit is the primary closer.  During this time he recorded 20 saves and 2 blown saves with a 2.08 ERA.  

With Joaquin Benoit leaving as a Free Agent and some money freed up by trading away Prince Fielder and Doug Fister, the Tigers signed the best Free Agent closer available.  After having Tommy John surgery and missing all of 2010, Nathan had a mediocre 2011, but pitched really well the last 2 years, similar to his career stats since becoming a full-time reliever in 2003:

	IP	SV	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP	xFIP
2003-2009	497 2/3	246	2.04	0.95	10.87	2.77	2.56	3.12
2012	64 1/3	37	2.80	1.06	10.91	1.82	2.78	2.60
2013	64 2/3	43	1.39	0.90	10.16	3.06	2.26	3.27

The Tigers now have a reliable closer and shouldn't have a problem with the 9th inning over the next 2 years.  What's worrisome is that I'm not totally convinced that the Tigers are a better team with Drew Smyly in the rotation and Joe Nathan in the bullpen as opposed to Doug Fister in the rotation and Drew Smyly in the bullpen.  

Doug Fister Trade Reaction: Dombrowski Gets 50 Cents on the Dollar

Two and a half years ago, Dave Dombrowski traded Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells and minor leaguer Francisco Martinez for Doug Fister.  Fister then appreciated in value by pitching to the tune of a  3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.20 FIP, 3.30 xFIP and a 10.4 fWAR in over 440 innings pitched for the Tigers.  Dombrowski then flipped Fister for Robbie Ray, Ian Krol and Steve Lombardozzi - the exact same value that he gave up two and a half years ago.  In terms of economic value, Dombrowski got essentially 50 cents on the dollar.

A look at what the Tigers received:

LH SP Robbie Ray

Ray was the centerpiece of the trade.  He was ranked as the #5 prospect in the Nationals organization according to Baseball America and might even be ranked higher in the Tigers' system.  Ray has shown to have good strikeout totals, 9.1 K/9 career in the minors and a 10.1 K/9 between A-ball and AA in 2013.  However, his control needs work with a minor league career 4.0 BB/9 and a 3.9 mark in 2013.  He doesn't allow many home runs, though, a 0.8 HR/9 mark at both his career minor league total and in 2013.  This adds up to a 4.29 career minor league ERA and a 3.94 career minor league FIP.  

Those are solid numbers, but not spectacular.  Ray has never ranked in the top 100 prospect list by Baseball America and will likely fall short again this year.  He is a bit of a gamble and an unknown.  He could end up being a middle of the rotation starter or end up being a bullpen piece.  He's far from a guarantee and that has many Tiger fans feeling uneasy about this trade.

2013 Stats:

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	FIP
A+	84	3.11	1.20	10.7	4.4	0.273	3.82
AA	58	3.72	1.33	9.3	3.3	0.317	3.42
2013 Total	142	3.36	1.25	10.1	3.9	0.293	3.66

LH RP Ian Krol

Krol spent part of 2013 at AA, part at AAA and part in the major leagues.  Put simply, he's a LOOGY and will likely take Drew Smyly's spot in the bullpen.  According to Minor League Central, Krol had a .215 BAA and a .586 OPS against vs. lefties in the minor leagues and a .257 BAA and a .724 OPS against vs. righties (2011-2013).  At the major league level, he has a .220 BAA and a .593 OPS against vs. lefties and a .304 BAA and a .957 OPS against vs. righties.  Keep him away from right-handed hitters and he should be a solid bullpen piece for the Tigers.

2013 Stats:

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	FIP
AA	26	0.69	0.81	10.0	2.4	0.210	2.51
AAA	3 2/3	4.91	0.82	17.2	2.5	0.333	0.20
MLB	27 1/3	3.95	1.32	7.2	2.6	0.280	4.69

  

Steve Lombardozzi

The Tigers now have a Ramon Santiago replacement - who can't seem to play shortstop very well.  Lombardozzi will likely fill in as a backup 2B, 3B and LF and hit like he is a backup player.  Yeah, nothing really to get excited for here.

Major League Stats:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
2011	32	0.194	0.219	0.226	3.1%	12.5%	0.200	18
2012	416	0.273	0.317	0.354	4.6%	11.1%	0.296	83
2013	307	0.259	0.278	0.338	2.6%	11.1%	0.269	67
MLB Total	755	0.264	0.297	0.342	3.7%	11.1%	0.281	74

The domino effect of this trade allows Drew Smyly to go back to the starting rotation, a role in which he probably should have never left, but there simply wasn't room last year.  It also frees up future obligations they would've had to give Fister over the next two years of arbitration.  Payroll that they now can spread out to upgrade at closer, left field, third base or to give to Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer for long-term contracts.

However, compared to recent trades of top starting pitchers, the Tigers package seems underwhelming.  Dave Cameron of FanGraphs shows that Fister is a top 25 pitcher according to traditional-based stats and a top 10 pitcher according to more advanced metrics over the last 3 years.  Compared to recent trades of James Shields, Matt Garza, Jake Peavy and R.A. Dickey, the Tigers got the lowest of value in return for Doug Fister.  

A very good argument could be made that Doug Fister is the most underrated starting pitcher in the game and he is continually getting underrated by the market.  Is this really the best package Dombrowski could get for Fister?  The Tigers are a worse team now than they were yesterday, and that's not very hopeful for a team with World Series aspirations.  

Fielder for Kinsler Trade Reaction

In the 2011/2012 off-season, the Tigers shocked the baseball world an signed Prince Fielder to a $214 million contract.  Two years later, they shocked the baseball world again by trading him to the Texas Rangers for 2B Ian Kinsler.  Here are a few thoughts.

Savings

Prince Fielder is owed $168 million for the remainder of his contract.  Ian Kinsler is owed at least $62 million for the remainder of his contract that could be worth $69 million if they exercise his 2018 option. The Tigers are also sending the Rangers $30 million.  That is a future savings of at least $69 million and as much as $76 million that they are now free to spend on other players.  Other players such as retaining near free agents Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer.  

The Tigers are only saving about $4 million for 2014 in this deal, so it's not an immediate savings.  But it's also not ruling out potential trade rumors of getting someone like Shin-Soo Choo, either.  Kinsler's contract is front-loaded.  He's due to make $16 million in each of the next two years that gets reduced to $14 in 2015 and $11 million in 2017.  This gives the tigers more flexibility as his contract nears its end.  

Defense

The Tigers defense greatly improved with this deal.  Prince Fielder was one of the worst defenders at 1B  over the last 3 years.  It is likely that Miguel Cabrera will now return to 1B, where he is a much better defender.  Comparing Cabrera's last 3 years at 1B to Fielder's last 3 years at 1B:

	Innings	DRS	UZR	RZR
Miguel Cabrera (2009-2011)	3922 1/3	-9	-4.6	0.758
Prince Fielder (2011-2013)	4111	-26	-10.2	0.790

It is likely that Cabrera will be worse than he was two years ago, simply because he's out of practice.  However, it's hard to imagine that he'll be worse than Fielder.  

This also means that Cabrera won't be displaying his awful defense at 3B anymore (and could potentially be able to stay healthier):

	Innings	DRS	UZR	RZR
Miguel Cabrera	2556 2/3	-22	-26.5	0.671

Over the last 2 years when Cabrera was the Tigers full-time 3B, he ranked dead last out of 19 qualified third basemen in all three of DRS, UZR and RZR.  It will not be hard to find someone to play better 3B defense.

As far as Kinsler's defense is concerned, here are his 2B stats for the last 3 years:

	Innings	DRS	UZR	RZR
Ian Kinsler	3629 1/3	30	14.7	0.826

Out of 18 qualifying players, Kinsler ranked 4th in DRS, 7th in DRS and 10th in RZR.  All about equal to what Omar Infante has put up.  

Offense

The Tigers are clearly going to lose some offense here.  Over the last 3 years:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Ian Kinsler	2068	0.262	0.341	0.438	9.7%	10.6%	0.342	109
Prince Fielder	2094	0.297	0.396	0.515	12.8%	14.7%	0.388	146

And it appears that Kinsler was taking advantage of Arlington being a hitter's park, as he has much better numbers at home than on the road.  Over the last 3 years, Kinsler's road numbers are not great:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Ian Kinsler	1031	0.231	0.303	0.387	8.1%	12.4%	0.304	90

This doesn't automatically mean Kinsler is going to have a poor performance at Comerica Park, but the stats are not in his favor.  

For what it's worth, Steamer already had their 2014 projections out.  Here is what they are projecting for Kinsler in 2014:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+	SB
Ian Kinsler	661	0.264	0.341	0.429	9.4%	10.8%	0.339	108	19

For those of you that want the Tigers to add more speed, Kinsler provides that.  He's averaged 22 SB over the last 3 years and Steamer is projecting 19 SB for 2014.

According to WAR, Kinsler has been worth 12.8 fWAR over the last 3 years and Fielder has been worth 12.0 fWAR.  Steamer is projecting a 3.3 fWAR for Kinsler in 2014 and 3.7 fWAR for Fielder.  In all intents and purposes, WAR is claiming that they are equal in value.  I'm not sure I completely buy that (especially with Kinsler moving away from Arlington), but they are probably closer than people think, when factoring in offense, defense and baserunning altogether. 

The Tigers Are Not Done

Not even addressing the closer situation, the Tigers are not done making moves.   They need to name a third baseman for 2014, even if it's moving prospect Nick Castellanos back to 3B.  They could also look to improve LF.  If and when they sign or trade for another offensive player, it could make this move even better since they wouldn't have had the means to do it while still having Fielder on the team.  

The Tigers had 3 1B/DH-type players and a hole at 2B.  They turned one of them into a 2B and saved a whole bunch of money in the process.  At first glance, this looks like another very good move by Dave Dombrowski.  

The Tigers Don't Need Brayan Pena

Brayan Pena announced that he won't be returning to the Tigers in 2014:

I was inform that i will not be returning to The Tigers ,i want to thanks the FANS, the ORGANIZATION & my TEAMMATES for the opportunity !!!!
— Brayan Pena (@cuban2727) October 30, 2013

A quick glance at Pena's 2013 stats shows that he was a pretty productive hitter and might have a few fans wondering why they aren't considering resigning him.   

PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	BB%	K%	wRC+
243	0.297	0.315	0.397	0.100	0.315	2.5%	10.7%	93

Pena had a very solid .297 batting average.  However, with only a 2.5% walk rate, his OBP wasn't very high at .315 and a .100 ISO means he didn't hit for much extra base power.  According to wRC+, Pena still fell a little short of the average production of a 100 wRC+.  Of everyone that received at least 200 PA in 2013 and had a batting average of at least .290, only 5 failed to have a wRC+ of 100.  This is a perfect example of how batting average can be a manipulative stat.  

Looking at Pena's previous seasons, it shows that 2013 might be an aberration.  

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	BB%	K%	wRC+
2010	174	0.253	0.306	0.335	0.082	0.295	6.9%	15.5%	75
2011	240	0.248	0.288	0.338	0.090	0.261	5.0%	10.0%	68
2012	226	0.236	0.262	0.321	0.085	0.253	4.0%	10.6%	54
2010-2012 Total	640	0.245	0.284	0.331	0.086	0.267	5.2%	11.7%	65

When projecting forward, it's much more reasonable that he'll revert back to his career norms, especially when he's entering his age-32 year and is in the back-end of his prime years.  

It is expected that Bryan Holaday will get a shot at being Avila's backup catcher next year.  In his very brief MLB stint, Holaday has hit .282/.333/.410 with a 105 wRC+ in 46 PA.  Last year in AAA, Holaday hit .260/.312/.372 with a 91 wRC+ in 320 PA.  He'll be entering his age-26 season, so he may not have much more to prove in the minors.  And his right-handed bat will compliment Avila's left-handed bat nicely.

Defensively, Holaday is very solid.  From B_Sakowski at Bless You Boys:

Holaday is a defense-first catcher that combines solid blocking skills, good receiving skills, and a plus throwing arm behind the plate.

If the Tigers decide to outside of the organization, here is a list of available Free Agents expected to sign as a back-up catcher along with their 2011-2013 production and their 2013 salary.  I also included Pena for comparison's sake.

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	BB%	K%	wRC+	2013 Salary
Dioner Navarro	541	0.260	0.324	0.425	0.165	0.275	8.3%	15.3%	104	$1,750,000
Geovany Soto	1019	0.220	0.299	0.396	0.176	0.265	9.3%	25.5%	86	$2,750,000
Kelly Shoppach	625	0.202	0.288	0.373	0.171	0.283	7.5%	34.2%	83	$1,500,000
Jose Molina	778	0.241	0.301	0.349	0.108	0.297	7.3%	21.5%	83	$1,500,000
Kurt Suzuki	1273	0.235	0.29	0.353	0.118	0.253	6.3%	13.5%	75	$8,500,000
Miguel Olivo	910	0.222	0.248	0.386	0.164	0.265	3.5%	27.3%	74	$800,000
Brayan Pena	709	0.261	0.289	0.353	0.092	0.277	3.8%	10.4%	72	$875,000
Yorvit Torrealba	833	0.254	0.300	0.355	0.101	0.291	6.0%	15.5%	72	$1,000,000
Wil Nieves	349	0.274	0.303	0.351	0.076	0.325	4.3%	17.5%	71	$800,000

As can be seen, the Tigers have several options, and that's without exploring the trade market.  Bryan Pena should be no big loss to the Tigers in 2014.