Using RE24 to Evaluate Relievers

Run expectation is one way to measure a player's effectiveness, either on offense or pitching.  In every 24-out situation, there's a different run expectation depending on the the baserunners and outs (the inning and score is irrelevant in RE24).  The difference between the run expectation at the start of a PA and the end of the PA gets charged to both the hitter and pitcher.  FanGraphs provides an example using the Red Sox and Rockies 2007 World Series game.  At the start of an inning the run expectation was .52 (this is just the league runs/league innings), then Ellsbury doubled that changed the run expectation to 1.15.  The difference between 1.15 and .52 is 0.63.  Therefore Ellsbury gets charged with +0.63 and Cook gets charged with -0.63.  

During the course of the season, these run expectation differences get added and subtracted to the player's total and at the end of the season they get a cumulative total that shows how much better they've been than league average.  Run expectation is extremely useful in generating linear weights which then can be applied to stats such as wOBA.  However, many analysts agree that RE24 can be very useful in proving relief pitcher value because they often come in and leave in the middle of an inning.  Say a starter loads the bases in the 7th inning and a reliever comes in and gives up a 3-run double and then a strikeout.  All 3 runs get charged to the starter while the reliever gets a scoreless 1/3 of an inning.  ERA doesn't properly show what happened, but RE24 does. 

The table below shows the Tigers relievers' RE24 as of games played through 8/31 provided by FanGraphs:

Player	IP	RE24
Joaquin Benoit	54 2/3	19.91
Drew Smyly	69	16.70
Jeremy Bonderman	14 1/3	3.50
Jose Veras	14 1/3	1.57
Jose Ortega	11 2/3	0.93
Rick Porcello	2	0.84
Bruce Rondon	26	-0.11
Evan Reed	18	-0.35
Luke Putkonen	22 2/3	-2.18
Jose Valverde	19 1/3	-2.38
Al Alburquerque	39	-3.27
Darin Downs	33	-3.73
Jose Alvarez	4	-4.78
Octavio Dotel	4 2/3	-6.02
Phil Coke	36	-6.46
Brayan Villarreal	4 1/3	-8.73

Tangotiger recently showed us how we can put RE24 on a RA9 or ERA scale:

If it helps, we can recast RE24 into an RA9 scale (i.e., similar to ERA) as follows.  Say the league average is .48 runs per inning.  Say you have a pitcher that has an RE24 of +40 runs and has pitched 200 innings.  That means the league average is .48 x 200 = 96 runs, and our pitcher here is 40 runs better than that, or 56 runs allowed.  So, his (RE24-based) RA9 is simply 56/200*9 = 2.52.

So far there have been 16,965 runs allowed in 36,380 1/3 IP for a league run/inning of 0.47 so far in 2013.  Using Joaquin Benoit as an example, he has pitched 54 2/3 innings; the league average would allow 0.47 * 54 2/3 = 25.49 runs.  Benoit has been 19.91 runs better or (25.49-19.91) 5.58 runs.  5.58 divided by 54 2/3 times 9 = 0.92.  The table below shows all of the Tigers relievers using this new metric (which I'm calling reRA9):

Player	IP	reRA9
Rick Porcello	2	0.42
Joaquin Benoit	54 2/3	0.92
Jeremy Bonderman	14 1/3	2.00
Drew Smyly	69	2.02
Jose Veras	14 1/3	3.21
Jose Ortega	11 2/3	3.48
Bruce Rondon	26	4.23
Evan Reed	18	4.37
Al Alburquerque	39	4.95
Luke Putkonen	22 2/3	5.06
Darin Downs	33	5.21
Jose Valverde	19 1/3	5.30
Phil Coke	36	5.81
Jose Alvarez	4	14.95
Octavio Dotel	4 2/3	15.81
Brayan Villarreal	4 1/3	22.33

We could then compare the pitcher's reRA9 to his ERA to see if he's been overvalued or undervalued:

Player	IP	reRA9	ERA	Difference
Octavio Dotel	4 2/3	15.81	13.50	2.31
Luke Putkonen	22 2/3	5.06	2.78	2.28
Brayan Villarreal	4 1/3	22.33	20.77	1.56
Evan Reed	18	4.37	3.00	1.37
Phil Coke	36	5.81	5.00	0.81
Bruce Rondon	26	4.23	3.81	0.43
Rick Porcello	2	0.42	0.00	0.42
Al Alburquerque	39	4.95	4.85	0.11
Jose Veras	14 1/3	3.21	3.14	0.07
Darin Downs	33	5.21	5.18	0.03
Drew Smyly	69	2.02	2.22	-0.20
Jose Valverde	19 1/3	5.30	5.59	-0.28
Jose Ortega	11 2/3	3.48	3.86	-0.38
Jeremy Bonderman	14 1/3	2.00	2.51	-0.51
Joaquin Benoit	54 2/3	0.92	1.48	-0.56
Jose Alvarez	4	14.95	15.75	-0.80

Villarreal and Valverde are no longer with us.  Other pitchers like Dotel, Porcello and Alvarez have too small of a sample size to tell us much.  It looks like Putkonen, who has a nice ERA, has been overvalued according to his RE24.  And Benoit, who has been extremely good in his role this year, looks to be even better by looking at RE24.  

2013 Trade Deadline Reaction: Jose Veras and Jose Iglesias

The Tigers completed two trades to shore up their roster for the stretch run.  They sent Danry Vasquez to the Astros for relief pitcher Jose Veras and they sent Avisail Garcia to the White Sox as part of a 3-team deal that sent Jake Peavy and Brayan Villarreal to the Red Sox and shortstop Jose Iglesias to the Tigers.

The Jose Veras Deal:

The Tigers' biggest weakness this year has been their bullpen, so it was pretty obvious that Dombrowski would address that.  Jose Veras was Houston's closer, saving 19 of 22 games.  However, he'll serve as a setup man in the Tigers' bullpen and Joaquin Benoit will continue as the closer.  Jim Leyland has already used him in that capacity, pitching a 1-2-3 8th inning in his Tiger debut on Tuesday.  Some stats (including his 1 inning with the Tigers) and projections for Veras:

	Innings	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
2013	44	2.86	0.98	9.00	2.86	3.38
ZiPS (ROS)	22	4.03	1.41	8.90	4.13	3.94
Steamer (ROS)	19	3.66	1.33	8.91	4.01	3.92

Veras is enjoying the best season of his career as a 32-year old.  He has always had good strikeout numbers, but the walks have always been issue before this year.  This is partly why the projections has him having a high WHIP for the remainder of the season.  If he has finally improved this area of his game, then he won't be as bad as the projections say.  Even if he does exactly what the projections say, he's still an improvement over other options that the Tigers have had.  Luke Putkonen was optioned to AAA and rookie Bruce Rondon won't have to be relied on in high leverage situations as much.  

The prospect going to Houston, 19-year old Danry Vasquez, was rated as Detroit's #6 prospect by Baseball America.  He was hitting .281/.333/.390 in 96 games in West Michigan.  He has high upside, but there have been many in his caliber that have flamed out.  It's a gamble worth taking on Houston's part given that the signed Veras for exactly this reason.  The Tigers have many outfielder prospects (including Nick Castellanos and Daniel Fields), so they traded a position of strength for a position of weakness.  This deal was a win/win for both teams.

Jose Veras also has a team option for $3.25 that will surely get picked up if he does well for the Tigers.

The Jose Iglesias Deal

This is a typical behind the scenes move by Dombrowski.  No one anticipated this move until minutes before it was announced.  With a possible suspension looming for Jhonny Peralta, Dombrowski felt it was worth getting a shortstop to fill in.  This is also a long-term solution as Iglesias is only 23 years old.  Some stats and projections for Iglesias:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+
2013	234	0.330	0.376	0.409	4.7%	12.8%	115
ZiPS (ROS)	152	0.273	0.318	0.330	4.9%	13.3%	76
Steamer (ROS)	184	0.262	0.307	0.341	5.3%	13.6%	74

Don't be fooled by his high batting average, which is inflated by a .376 BABIP.  He is projected to be an all glove, no bat player.  His offense consists of above average speed (13 infield hits this year) with no power (.076 career ISO) and poor plate discipline (4.7% career BB rate).  However, his defense has been comparable to Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel.  If he can hit just well enough, he'll be an important player for the Tigers based on defense alone.

Here's a highlight reel on Iglesias' defense (I prefer watching it on mute):

As for the player they gave up, Avisial Garcia, it's no secret that I'm not his biggest fan.  My biggest criticism on him has always been the poor plate discipline, with a ML career 5.0% and a 5.1% in 88 PA in AAA this year.  He also hits too many ground balls for an alleged power hitter (63% ML career ground ball rate).  However, he was ranked as the Tigers' #2 prospect and #74 overall by Baseball America and was hitting for a .374 batting average in AAA.  He does have tools, but those tools haven't yet fully translated in the stats and it's still questionable if they ever will.  At best, he's an all-star player, at worst he's a 4th OF.  In reality, I think he's somewhere in between, just an average 3rd OF that's probably most comparable to Delmon Young, with much better defense.  

While Brayan Villarreal had a decent year for the Tigers in 2012 (2.63 ERA and a 2.98 FIP in over 54 innings), he struggled mightily in 7 games for the Tigers this year (but had a 3.15 ERA in AAA).  Personally, I think he can stick as a middle reliever in the big leagues, but losing him is essentially inconsequential.  

This was a timing trade for the Tigers, not just because of the Peralta suspension, but because of the lack of depth in free agency at the shortstop position.  Again, the traded a position of strength for a position of weakness as they don't have to worry about acquiring a shortstop for awhile now.  

Overall, I think Dombrowski did another solid job at the trade deadline that might look even better (or worse) a year from now depending on how Garcia and Iglesias progress.  It'll take another 3 years to see how Vasquez will progress, but by then Castellanos will be in the Tigers OF and Tiger fans would've forgotten all about him.