Using RE24 to Evaluate Relievers

Run expectation is one way to measure a player's effectiveness, either on offense or pitching.  In every 24-out situation, there's a different run expectation depending on the the baserunners and outs (the inning and score is irrelevant in RE24).  The difference between the run expectation at the start of a PA and the end of the PA gets charged to both the hitter and pitcher.  FanGraphs provides an example using the Red Sox and Rockies 2007 World Series game.  At the start of an inning the run expectation was .52 (this is just the league runs/league innings), then Ellsbury doubled that changed the run expectation to 1.15.  The difference between 1.15 and .52 is 0.63.  Therefore Ellsbury gets charged with +0.63 and Cook gets charged with -0.63.  

During the course of the season, these run expectation differences get added and subtracted to the player's total and at the end of the season they get a cumulative total that shows how much better they've been than league average.  Run expectation is extremely useful in generating linear weights which then can be applied to stats such as wOBA.  However, many analysts agree that RE24 can be very useful in proving relief pitcher value because they often come in and leave in the middle of an inning.  Say a starter loads the bases in the 7th inning and a reliever comes in and gives up a 3-run double and then a strikeout.  All 3 runs get charged to the starter while the reliever gets a scoreless 1/3 of an inning.  ERA doesn't properly show what happened, but RE24 does. 

The table below shows the Tigers relievers' RE24 as of games played through 8/31 provided by FanGraphs:

Player	IP	RE24
Joaquin Benoit	54 2/3	19.91
Drew Smyly	69	16.70
Jeremy Bonderman	14 1/3	3.50
Jose Veras	14 1/3	1.57
Jose Ortega	11 2/3	0.93
Rick Porcello	2	0.84
Bruce Rondon	26	-0.11
Evan Reed	18	-0.35
Luke Putkonen	22 2/3	-2.18
Jose Valverde	19 1/3	-2.38
Al Alburquerque	39	-3.27
Darin Downs	33	-3.73
Jose Alvarez	4	-4.78
Octavio Dotel	4 2/3	-6.02
Phil Coke	36	-6.46
Brayan Villarreal	4 1/3	-8.73

Tangotiger recently showed us how we can put RE24 on a RA9 or ERA scale:

If it helps, we can recast RE24 into an RA9 scale (i.e., similar to ERA) as follows.  Say the league average is .48 runs per inning.  Say you have a pitcher that has an RE24 of +40 runs and has pitched 200 innings.  That means the league average is .48 x 200 = 96 runs, and our pitcher here is 40 runs better than that, or 56 runs allowed.  So, his (RE24-based) RA9 is simply 56/200*9 = 2.52.

So far there have been 16,965 runs allowed in 36,380 1/3 IP for a league run/inning of 0.47 so far in 2013.  Using Joaquin Benoit as an example, he has pitched 54 2/3 innings; the league average would allow 0.47 * 54 2/3 = 25.49 runs.  Benoit has been 19.91 runs better or (25.49-19.91) 5.58 runs.  5.58 divided by 54 2/3 times 9 = 0.92.  The table below shows all of the Tigers relievers using this new metric (which I'm calling reRA9):

Player	IP	reRA9
Rick Porcello	2	0.42
Joaquin Benoit	54 2/3	0.92
Jeremy Bonderman	14 1/3	2.00
Drew Smyly	69	2.02
Jose Veras	14 1/3	3.21
Jose Ortega	11 2/3	3.48
Bruce Rondon	26	4.23
Evan Reed	18	4.37
Al Alburquerque	39	4.95
Luke Putkonen	22 2/3	5.06
Darin Downs	33	5.21
Jose Valverde	19 1/3	5.30
Phil Coke	36	5.81
Jose Alvarez	4	14.95
Octavio Dotel	4 2/3	15.81
Brayan Villarreal	4 1/3	22.33

We could then compare the pitcher's reRA9 to his ERA to see if he's been overvalued or undervalued:

Player	IP	reRA9	ERA	Difference
Octavio Dotel	4 2/3	15.81	13.50	2.31
Luke Putkonen	22 2/3	5.06	2.78	2.28
Brayan Villarreal	4 1/3	22.33	20.77	1.56
Evan Reed	18	4.37	3.00	1.37
Phil Coke	36	5.81	5.00	0.81
Bruce Rondon	26	4.23	3.81	0.43
Rick Porcello	2	0.42	0.00	0.42
Al Alburquerque	39	4.95	4.85	0.11
Jose Veras	14 1/3	3.21	3.14	0.07
Darin Downs	33	5.21	5.18	0.03
Drew Smyly	69	2.02	2.22	-0.20
Jose Valverde	19 1/3	5.30	5.59	-0.28
Jose Ortega	11 2/3	3.48	3.86	-0.38
Jeremy Bonderman	14 1/3	2.00	2.51	-0.51
Joaquin Benoit	54 2/3	0.92	1.48	-0.56
Jose Alvarez	4	14.95	15.75	-0.80

Villarreal and Valverde are no longer with us.  Other pitchers like Dotel, Porcello and Alvarez have too small of a sample size to tell us much.  It looks like Putkonen, who has a nice ERA, has been overvalued according to his RE24.  And Benoit, who has been extremely good in his role this year, looks to be even better by looking at RE24.  

A Look at Bryan Holaday and Jose Ortega

The Tigers recently made two moves.  They placed Alex Avila on the DL and designated Omir Santos for assignment.  They promoted catcher Byan Holaday and relief pitcher Jose Ortega to take their spots on the roster.  The following players have been, at one time or another, on the 25-man roster that started the year in AAA: Holaday, Ortega, Drew Smyly, Casey Crosby, Luke Putkonen, Brayan Villarreal, Adam Wilk, Thad Weber, Quintin Berry, Matt Young, Omir Santos, Brad Eldred, Clete Thomas.  That’s 13 players and we’re barely in June.  If my calculations are correct, the Tigers had 16 players on their roster last year who started in the minors, and that includes September call-ups.

Bryan Holaday

Bryan Holaday is a right-handed batter that had a stat line of .248/.313/.314, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 11 BB, 23 K in 137 PA in AAA.  He has a career stat line of .238/.314/.343, 10 HR, 64 RBI, 59 BB, 142 K in 696 PA spanning 3 years in the minors.  He was drafted out of college and immediately got placed in High-A ball and then moved to AA in 2011 and AAA in 2012.  His strong defensive skills (38.5% caught stealing rate this year) probably helped him speed through the minors and eventually to the majors.  His numbers don’t suggest that he’ll be any more than a back-up at the ML level, and unless he’s very, very good at defense he probably won’t last long.  I’ve read that he does have strong leadership qualities, so that should help too.

Holaday was batting .333/.385/.417 against left-handed pitching, but that’s only in 28 PA.  In 2011 he was hitting .169/.247/.277 against left-handed pitching, so his improvement is most likely due to small sampling.  He did improve on his LD rate, 17.6% from 14.4% in 2011, so that’s a positive.  Yeah, there’s really not much to look at there, except to hope that he’s really good on defense.

Bryan Holaday is starting today and batting 9^th, so we should know soon enough how good he is at defense.

Jose Ortega

Jose Ortega was once ranked #10 Tigers prospect by Baseball-America in 2011.  He’s a right-handed pitcher, who had 29 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.897 WHIP, 9.0 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 3.89 FIP, 4.55 SIERA.  Yikes, look at that walk rate!  He throws a mid-90s fastball that he apparently needs help commanding.  It gives him a good strikeout rate, but a terrible walk rate.

Left-handers are hitting .216/.463/.270 against him and right-handers are hitting .257/.369/.371 against him.  He looks like he’ll be a pretty solid pitcher that can get both lefties and righties out, if he can just get better command and control on his pitches.

I’m predicting that it’ll be a short stay for Ortega as he just doesn’t look ready for prime time.