Friday, June 7, 2013

Most Wins Without a Complete Game

Yesterday Max Scherzer pitched another brilliant game, 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K while lowering his season ERA to 3.24.  He reached the magic number of pitches, exactly 100, and was promptly replaced.  Again, it left fans wondering just when Scherzer would get a chance at a complete game.

Below is the table of pitchers with the most wins without a complete game, something that Fox Sports Detroit seems to show whenever Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello is pitching:


Rk Player W CG From To Age G GS SHO GF L W-L% SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+
1 Max Scherzer 60 0 2008 2013 23-28 154 145 0 2 42 .588 0 888.0 828 416 377 290 929 3.82 112
2 Tony Armas 53 0 1999 2008 21-30 185 167 0 7 65 .449 0 925.2 891 519 478 431 680 4.65 94
3 Rick Porcello 50 0 2009 2013 20-24 131 130 0 1 45 .526 0 748.2 861 414 383 191 431 4.60 93
4 Scott Olsen 37 0 2005 2010 21-26 130 127 0 0 49 .430 0 723.0 778 446 390 291 528 4.85 88
5 Bud Norris 33 0 2009 2013 24-28 111 110 0 0 42 .440 0 639.2 637 340 306 265 604 4.31 92
6 Ivan Nova 31 0 2010 2013 23-26 72 66 0 5 15 .674 0 400.1 431 209 197 140 303 4.43 95
7 Lance Lynn 27 0 2011 2013 24-26 65 43 0 4 9 .750 1 285.2 249 111 109 101 296 3.43 111
8 Mike Minor 26 0 2010 2013 22-25 66 65 0 1 17 .605 0 381.1 354 180 169 111 337 3.99 99
9 Chris Narveson 26 0 2006 2013 24-31 97 63 0 9 18 .591 0 396.2 394 213 205 150 326 4.65 87
10 Mike Thurman 26 0 1997 2002 23-28 105 87 0 9 36 .419 0 493.2 537 311 277 190 296 5.05 89
Generated 6/7/2013.

All of these pitchers have pitched within the last 15 years and only Tony Armas, Scott Olsen and Mike Thurman haven't pitched in 2013 from this list.  With specialized roles in the bullpen and an emphasis on pitch counts, it has already become more common to not get a complete game out of a pitcher for his career, but I don't think we're there yet in regards to Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello.  It seems like both Scherzer and Porcello have taken a step forward this year, therefore it is now a matter of "when" not "if" they can go the distance.  

Max Scherzer has pitched 5 games this year while going at least 8 innings.  That's already 1 more than his career high of 4 games in 2010, for which if it wasn't for an extra inning game, he would have already recorded a complete game by going 9 innings.  

Below is a game log for Scherzer first sorted by number of innings, then number of pitches:


Date IP Pitches
9/1/2010
9
106
5/10/2013
8
103
4/24/2011
8
104
4/17/2013
8
105
5/4/2013
8
105
5/4/2011
8
109
7/2/2010
8
110
9/7/2012
8
110
9/1/2012
8
113
7/16/2011
8
116
5/21/2013
8
118
5/31/2013
8
119
8/26/2010
8
121
9/22/2010
8
121
6/17/2012
8
122

3 of the top 5 happened this year; he's getting closer.  Now it is up to Jim Leyland to put him back out there in the 9th.

For Rick Porcello, he only has 1 game in 2013 where he's gone 8 innings, therefore his complete game bid has been more spread out.  However, he's been much more efficient with his pitches:

Date IP Pitches
5/22/2011
8
84
8/1/2009
8
91
7/21/2012
8
94
5/1/2012
8
98
7/17/2010
8
99
5/28/2013
8
99
9/9/2010
8
105
9/26/2010
8
107
7/29/2011
8
107

I'm not exactly sure what Leyland's mindset was in the May game in 2011, as it looks like Porcello could have gotten a complete game without reaching the magic 100 pitch count.

After the implosion against the Angels, Porcello has a 3.48 ERA and is averaging exactly a strikeout an inning in 7 starts as he seems to have taken a big step forward this year.  


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