Applying Leverage Index to the Closing Situation

Yesterday, Jose Valverde blew his third save in twelve chances and his second in six games.  In his last six games, Valverde has pitched 5 1/3 innings, giving up 10 hits, 7 earned runs, 5 home runs, 6 strikeouts and 1 walk for an 11.81 ERA and 2.03 WHIP.  His ERA went from 0.75 on May 27th to 4.15 after yesterday's disaster.  All in all, Tiger fans across the blogosphere and Twitterville are questioning if the Jose Valverde closer experiment has failed and if a change is imminent.   

Bless You Boys: Tigers Closer Jose Valverde on the hot seat
Pepper Baseball: Enough is Enough for Papa Grande...Right?
Motor City Bengals: Is Jose Valverde Dancing His Way Out of Town?
Walk Off Woodward: A Plea to Tigers Brass: End the Jose Valverde Experiment
Tiger Snark: No More Potato, Please
Motown Sports: Just How Long.......
Detroit Tigers.com Forum: ABBA Grande, The Dancing Queen

In one Tweet, tell me what the Tigers should do to solve their bullpen issues. I'll use a handful of them on MLive.
— Chris Iott (@Chris_Iott) June 13, 2013

To answer this question, I decided to look at how Tigers pitchers performed in high leverage situations:

Rk		G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Jose Alvarez	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1		.000	.000	.000	.000
2	Anibal Sanchez	10	27	24	7	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	6	6.00	.167	.185	.250	.435
3	Al Alburquerque	7	22	18	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	3.00	.167	.273	.167	.439
4	Drew Smyly	10	30	27	1	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	2.67	.185	.267	.185	.452
5	Joaquin Benoit	16	48	43	2	9	2	0	0	0	0	4	13	3.25	.209	.277	.256	.532
6	Justin Verlander	12	54	48	14	11	5	0	0	1	0	4	18	4.50	.229	.296	.333	.630
7	Luke Putkonen	3	10	9	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2.00	.333	.400	.333	.733
8	Max Scherzer	11	55	46	13	13	2	0	1	0	0	6	14	2.33	.283	.352	.391	.743
9	Doug Fister	12	76	69	25	22	5	1	1	0	0	3	7	2.33	.319	.347	.464	.810
10	Darin Downs	11	28	24	8	6	2	0	1	0	0	4	7	1.75	.250	.357	.458	.815
11	Jose Valverde	10	38	33	7	8	0	0	3	1	0	5	9	1.80	.242	.342	.515	.857
12	Bruce Rondon	1	5	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		.500	.400	.500	.900
13	Phil Coke	9	36	30	8	10	3	0	1	0	0	4	6	1.50	.333	.412	.533	.945
14	Rick Porcello	9	37	33	13	13	1	0	2	0	0	4	6	1.50	.394	.459	.606	1.066
15	Jose Ortega	5	22	17	5	5	0	0	2	0	0	4	5	1.25	.294	.429	.647	1.076
16	Octavio Dotel	4	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.00	.400	.500	.600	1.100
17	Brayan Villarreal	4	12	6	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	5	4	0.80	.333	.636	1.000	1.636
	Team Total	57	508	438	117	118	24	1	12	16	4	52	116	2.23	.269	.343	.411	.754

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/13/2013.

Leverage Index attempts to quantify pressure based on the inning, score, outs and baserunners; high leverage is high pressure situations, low leverage is low pressure situations.  From FanGraphs:

During the course of a game, some situations are more tense and suspenseful than others. For instance, we know that a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth inning is more suspenseful than a one-run lead in the top of the third inning. Batting with two runners on and two outs in the eighth inning is filled with more pressure than batting in the same situation in the second inning. Leverage Index (LI) is merely an attempt to quantify this pressure so we can determine if a player has been used primarily in high-leverage or low-leverage situations.

From the table above, Baseball-reference used a Leverage Index of 1.5 to determine high leverage situations.  Al Alburquerque, Drew Smyly and Joaquin Benoit have been the Tigers best relievers in high leverage situations.  Alburquerque has been sent down to AAA because of control issues, so that leaves Smyly and Benoit as the best options in high leverage situations.

One of the problems of just using the best reliever for high leverage situations as the closer is that sometimes a situation will occur earlier in the game that is more high leverage than the ninth inning.  It's because of this that people argue that the closer position is overrated.  And I agree.  I want Drew Smyly to come in the game in a crucial moment instead of waiting until the 9th inning.  I also want Drew Smyly to stay in the game until it's finished, essentially being a multiple-inning closer.

Drew Smyly is a starter by trade, so limiting him to just 1 inning doesn't make sense.  He also isn't going to start anytime soon since the first time the Tigers needed a spot starter, they called upon Jose Alvarez, saying that Smyly wasn't stretched out enough.  Leyland has primarily used Smyly in the middle innings and based on the leverage situations, his role can be labeled as "mop up."   122 of his 152 (80%) batters faced have come in low or medium leverage situations despite his great numbers in high leverage situations.  Arguably, small samples need apply.  30 batters is hardly anything concrete.  Also, using Smyly like this will cause him to miss 1-2 days between appearances.  

However, Joaquin Benoit has been just as good as Smyly in high leverage situations and 44% of his batters faced have been in such situations.  Having a plan where both Smyly and Benoit alternate the closer role, each going both the 8th and 9th (and sometimes the 7th) is what I think, the best solution.  Putting a relief pitcher in the game and not taking him out until either a) he's tired or b) ineffective is a strategy that I've always believed in (unless of course that pitcher has severe split numbers.  I'm looking at your direction, Phil Coke).  Changing pitchers until one of them blows the game is a fear I never want to see happen.

The last time a Tigers starting pitcher failed to go at least 6 innings was Rick Porcello on May 23rd.  That means the Tigers have gone 19 consecutive games where the starter has gone at least 6 innings.  In fact 48 of the 64 games (75%) the Tigers have played, the starter has gone at least 6 innings.  The need for a "long man" in the Tigers bullpen just isn't there.  The best way to maximize Smyly's talents is to use him late in the game.  

The Tigers already have relievers capable of closing.  Jim Leyland just needs to use them properly.