2012 Preseason Predictions Revisited

For the last few years I've been making predictions on the Detroit Tigers forum.  At the end of the year, I like to compare my expectations to what actually happen.  This is also a good example of why I'm just a random internet blogger instead of working for Bill James.

Miguel Cabrera:

2012 Prediction: 566 AB - .337/.437/.592 – 34 HR – 111 RBI – 2 SB – 101 BB – 88 K

2012 Actual: 622 AB - .330/.393/.606 – 44 HR – 139 RBI – 4 SB – 66 BB – 98 K

One surprise of his 2011 season is his HR total. 30 is really low considering that he hit his career high 38 just a season before, I don’t know if this is an aberration or if he’s consciously trying to hit for less HR power to increase his batting average.

Aberration.  Definitely aberration. 

Prince Fielder:

2012 Prediction: 569 AB - .285/.393/.538 – 34 HR – 105 RBI – 1 SB – 95 BB – 129 K

2012 Actual: 581 AB - .313/.412/.528 – 30 HR – 108 RBI – 1 SB – 85 BB – 84 K

This easily gives the Tigers the best 3-4 hitters in all of baseball with Cabrera/Fielder.

Some things are just easy to predict.

 

Justin Verlander:

2012 Prediction: 237 2/3 IP – 20-7 W/L – 2.97 ERA – 1.069 WHIP – 249 K – 58 BB

2012 Actual: 238 1/3 IP – 17-8 W/L – 2.64 ERA – 1.057 WHIP – 239 K – 60 BB

His BABIP was a very low .236 and likely not sustainable. A regression to his .285 BABIP is likely in 2012.  His LOB% was also a high 80.3%, meaning he was stranding more runners on base than he’s ever done in his career and that will not likely continue.

2012 BABIP: .273; LOB: 76.4%.   

Alex Avila:

2012 Prediction: 441 AB - .270/.369/.456 – 17 HR – 74 RBI – 2 SB – 70 BB – 120 K

2012 Actual: 367 AB - .243/.352/.384 – 9 HR – 48 RBI – 2 SB – 61 BB – 104 K

However, the more playing time he gets, the more scouting reports pitchers will have on him and therefore he’ll have to make adjustments. The bad AB in the playoffs could be attributed to him tiring out but also to pitchers figuring him out. While I think Avila is going to be above average again, it’s going to be hard for him to remain the top offensive catcher in 2012.

I was too optimistic.

Doug Fister:

2012 Prediction: 216 IP – 15-9 W/L – 3.33 ERA – 1.120 WHIP – 167 K – 40 BB

2012 Actual: 161 2/3 IP – 10-10 W/L – 3.45 ERA – 1.194 WHIP – 137 K – 37 BB

The safe bet is to assume that he’s in between what he did with Seattle and what he did with Detroit, 6.1 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 3.02 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, .272 BABIP.

2012: 7.63 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 3.42 FIP, 3.39 xFIP, .296 BABIP.  I also can't help but wonder what he would've done if he were healthy all year.

Jhonny Peralta:

2012 Prediction: 539 AB - .278/.335/.456 – 22 HR – 84 RBI – 0 SB – 48 BB – 100 K

2012 Actual: 531 AB - .239/.305/.384 – 13 HR – 63 RBI – 1 SB – 49 BB – 105 K

At only 30 years of age, I would expect pretty much a repeat in 2012.

Whoops! 

Max Scherzer:

2012 Prediction: 201 IP – 15-7 W/L – 3.63 ERA – 1.249 WHIP – 186 K – 57 BB

2012 Actual: 187 2/3 IP – 16-7 W/L – 3.74 ERA – 1.274 WHIP – 231 K – 60 BB

There was a shift in his pitching pattern in 2011. He decreased the percentage of fastballs (65% in 2010; 61.4% in 2011) he threw and increased the percentage of sliders (15.2% in 2010; 18.3% in 2011). Putting aside the potential injury concerns there are in throwing a lot of sliders, this could potentially be the source of why his H/9 increased in 2011. Scherzer has a great fastball; there’s no reason why he should throw less of them. He needs to go back to the pattern that gave him the 3.50 ERA in 2010. His command is getting better as evident of his better BB/9, so if he can get back to throwing more fastballs, he’s primed to have the best year of his career.

2012: 60.8% FB, 19.5% SL, 8.6 H/9.  That’s an even more of a shift in sliders from fastballs.  Yeah, my theory was wrong.

Austin Jackson:

2012 Prediction: 581 AB - .269/.336/.386 – 7 HR – 42 RBI – 24 SB – 57 BB – 172 K

2012 Actual: 543 AB - .300/.377/.479 – 16 HR – 66 RBI – 12 SB – 67 BB – 134 K

I don’t know how much the leg kick will help him, but he’s still young enough that he can improve.

Apparently, it helped more than I thought. 

Rick Porcello:

2012 Prediction: 195 1/3 IP – 14-9 W/L – 3.92 ERA – 1.300 WHIP – 45 BB – 123 K

2012 Actual: 176 1/3 IP – 10-12 W/L – 4.59 ERA – 1.531 WHIP – 44 BB – 107 K

The way I see it, there’s 2 things Porcello needs to get better at: his strikeout rate and his groundball rate.

5.46 K/9, 53.2% GB rate in 2012, both improvements over 2011.  3.91 FIP and 3.89 xFIP, also both improvements over 2011.  Poor defense seemed to have victimized Porcello more than any other pitcher in 2012.

 

Brennan Boesch:

2012 Prediction: 521 AB - .282/.347/.472 – 22 HR – 70 RBI – 7 SB – 48 BB – 87 K

2012 Actual: 470 AB - .240/.286/.372 – 12 HR – 54 RBI – 6 SB – 26 BB – 104 K

I think Boesch will be a pretty good player, there is one area that suggests that he isn’t as good as his stats suggest. Boesch always struggled against left-handed pitching in the minors and was even called a “platoon player” by many scouts (playing exclusively against right-handed pitching). However, he has significantly hit better against left-handed pitching in the majors (.319/.380/.471/.851 vs. lefties; .254/.315/.425/.740 vs. righties). Has he made an adjustment to get better against lefties? If this is real, then Boesch can be even better than I imagine once he gets better against righties. If this is indeed a fluke, then he must improve against righties in order to maintain his current level of production.

2012 vs. LHP: .230/.292/.333/.625

2012 vs. RHP: .244/.284/.387/.671

Delmon Young:

2012 Prediction: 532 AB - .284/.327/.442 – 17 HR – 84 RBI – 3 SB – 32 BB – 97 K

2012 Actual: 574 AB - .267/.296/.411 – 18 HR – 74 RBI – 0 SB – 20 BB – 112 K

Looking at his numbers, 2 things jump out at me, his BB rate and his HR/FB rate. With the Tigers last year, Young had a pathetic 2.8% BB rate, almost half of what it was with Minnesota, 5.5%. What’s worrisome is that Young has shown a low BB% over a full season before; in 2009 his BB% was 2.9% over 416 PA. His HR/FB rate was a very high 16% with the Tigers last year, something that Young has NEVER done in the past (HR/FB rates usually stay consistent and don’t fluctuate too often). The highest it was in past was, again, in 2009 (not 2010) at 11.4%. I’m calling this a fluke and say it’ll be closer to 10% in 2012, like it was in 2010.

3.3% BB rate and 11.1% HR/FB rate in 2012. 

Jose Valverde:

2012 Prediction: 68 2/3 IP – 40 SV – 2.88 ERA – 1.121 WHIP – 29 BB – 64 K

2012 Actual: 69 IP – 35 SV – 3.78 ERA – 1.246 WHIP – 27 BB – 48 K

Relievers are weird because they have so small sample sizes.

The one thing that jumps out with Valverde is the strikeout rate, which has been declining since 2007.  It was regularly over 10.0 K/9 from 2003-2008, then around 9.0 K/9 the next couple of years and only 6.3 K/9 in 2012.  That’s not a very good sign going forward.

Ryan Raburn:

2012 Prediction: 443 AB - .271/.324/.463 – 19 HR – 68 RBI – 2 SB – 32 BB – 115 K

2012 Actual: 205 AB - .171/.226/.254 – 1 HR – 12 RBI – 1 SB – 13 BB – 53 K

I’m felling optimist.  I’m not going to predict 2009 production, but I don’t think the downward trend will continue.

I’ll see myself out now.