Justin Verlander – Just as Good as Last Year

…and maybe even better.

Justin Verlander only has a .600 winning percentage this year (6-4 W/L) compared to last year’s .828 winning percentage (24-5 W/L).  Also, he’s ERA is higher (2.66 compared to 2.40 last year) as well as his WHIP (0.97 compared to 0.92 last year).  Looking at these old school stats, one could conclude that Verlander is slightly worse this year than last year.  However, we’re in an age where more information is available and that information says that Verlander has been even better than these stats suggest.

Winning percentage is dependent on run support and a good bullpen.  Last year, Verlander had 4.7 runs of support /game; this year, it’s only 3.4 runs/game.  Also, last year, the Tigers won every game leading after the 7^th inning.  This year, they haven’t been as perfect, losing 5 games leading after the 7^th inning.  ERA and WHIP is somewhat dependent on the defense; if the defense can’t make a play because of poor range, then it’ll go as a hit instead of an error.  The Tigers’ defense this year has been below average – way below average.  The Tigers rank 29^th in both UZR and DRS. 

Several defensive independent stats:

2011 Verlander – 2.99 FIP, 3.12* xFIP, 3.09 tERA, 2.99 SIERA

2012 Verlander – 2.54* FIP, 3.18 xFIP, 3.03* tERA, 2.95* SIERA

*Career bests.

All very close to last year and all better than last year except for xFIP.  xFIP adjusts for the league average HR rate.  Last year, Verlander had an 8.8% HR/FB, the highest it’s been since 2006 when it was 10.3%.  This year, it’s only 6.1%.  Verlander has always had a lower than average HR rate, so maintaining that this year isn’t out of the question.  However, his career is 7.7%, so a slight increase could be expected.  FIP also heavily factors in strikeout rates and Verlander has a higher K/9 this year than last year (9.12 in 2012; 8.79 in 2011).

His WHIP is higher this year, despite having the same BB rate (2.04 BB/9).  His LD rate is up this year to 22.6% compared to 17.7% last year and thus his BABIP is higher (.265 compared to .236 last year).  However, his batting against line is pretty close to last year’s:

2011 - .192/.242/.313/.555

2012 - .205/.254/.314/.568

His slugging against is almost exactly the same as last year.  Again, this is mainly due to the lower HR rate.  His ground ball percentage is almost exactly the same as last year (40.2% in 2011; 40.0% in 2012).  This means that some of the fly balls that were hit last year and being changed into line drives this year.  However, this is an arbitrary stat; sometimes there is little difference between a line drive and a fly ball.  For example, Baseball-reference shows Verlander having a 19% LD rate this year and a 17% LD rate in 2011.  Still higher, so there is proof that Verlander has been a little bit more hittable this year.  However, the higher strikeout rate and lower HR rate kind of balances it out.

His swinging strike rate (swing and misses/total pitches) is at 11.7% this year and his contact rate is only at 75.3% this year, both are career bests for him.  Verlander has an fWAR of 3.4 in 14 starts this year; at that rate he’ll have an 8.3 fWAR in 34 starts, which will match is career high set in 2009 (Verlander has a 7.0 fWAR last year).  At his current pace, Verlander could have the best season of his career this year.

Just imagine how Verlander would look on even an average defensive team.

Tweaking xFIP

FIP is an ERA estimator.  You can read about it more here and here. 

FIP = (13*HR+3*(BB+HBP)-2*K)/IP + Constant

The constant brings FIP on the same scale as ERA.  The constant so far for 2012 is 3.00. 

The FIP for the 5 Tigers’ starters so far this year is:

Justin Verlander – 2.38

Doug Fister – 3.82

Max Scherzer – 3.96
Drew Smyly – 4.03
Rick Porcello – 4.37
 
This gives a pretty good indicator of how these pitchers have truly pitched this year, at least better than what ERA would tell you.  However, there is a further step that can be taken to give you xFIP.  To quote FanGraphs:

Home run rates are generally unstable over time and fluctuate around league-average, so by estimating a pitcher’s home run total, xFIP attempts to isolate a player’s ability level. A pitcher may allow home runs on 12% of their flyballs one year, then turn around and only allow 7% the next year. HR/FB ratios can be very difficult to predict, so xFIP attempts to correct for that.

xFIP = (13*xHR+3*(BB+HBP)-2*K)/IP + Constant

The only difference between FIP and xFIP is the HR rate.  FIP uses true HR while xFIP adjusts it to the league average HR/FB ratio.  The league average HR/FB ratio so far this year is 10.9%.  The HR/FB ratio so far for the 5 Tigers’ starters in 2012 is:

Max Scherzer – 16.7%
Doug Fister – 15.4%
Rick Porcello – 13.0%
Drew Smyly – 12.5%
Justin Verlander – 5.2%

Except for Verlander, the Tigers’ starters have been very homer happy.  Scherzer, Fister, Porcello and Smyly have allowed HR at a higher rate than the league average.  This should average out as the season progresses and according to xFIP, it should be closer to the league average. For example, Max Scherzer has allowed 10 HR so far this year on 60 fly balls, (10/60 = 16.7%).  However, the league average HR/FB ratio is 10.9%, so he should have only allowed about 6.54 HR (10.9%*60).  I know it’s impossible to allow a fraction of a HR, but that’s how the calculation works.  Substitute 6.54 in for the 10 HR and his FIP is reduced.  The xFIP for the 5 

Tigers’ starters so far this year is:

Max Scherzer – 3.13
Justin Verlander – 3.14
Doug Fister – 3.37
Drew Smyly – 3.79
Rick Porcello – 4.12

There you have it, Max Scherzer has been just as good as Justin Verlander when you adjust for their HR rates.  Er…eh, no.  I’m not buying it.  There is one major flaw when adjusting for the league average HR rates.  To quote FanGraphs again:

While HR/FB ratios are generally unstable over time, some pitchers are still more prone to allowing home runs than others. If a pitcher has a long history of over- or under-performing the league average with their HR/FB rate, then you can reasonably expect them to perform closer to their career average than the league-average. In cases like this, xFIP may overestimate or underestimate a player’s true talent level by assuming a league average HR/FB ratio.

Over their careers, Justin Verlander has a significant lower HR/FB ratio than Max Scherzer.  

Career HR/FB ratios:
Doug Fister – 7.5%
Justin Verlander – 7.7%
Max Scherzer – 11.4%
Rick Porcello – 11.4%
Drew Smyly – 12.5%

So instead of using the league average 10.9%, what would be the harm in using their career rates?  I think this gives a better idea on what to expect instead of using the league average.  Verlander and Fister have shown to give up less HR than the league average, so expecting that to continue is not out question.  

Justin Verlander – 2.71
Doug Fister – 3.04
Max Scherzer – 3.20
Drew Smyly – 4.03
Rick Porcello – 4.18

Now, those numbers I believe.