Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Should Jhonny Peralta be batting 5th?

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It seems like this discussion was going on last year. An underperforming player is hitting 5th while not a great option, but seemingly better one, is hitting lower in the order. Only this time the underperforming player is Victor Martinez instead of Delmon Young and both times that seemingly better player looks to be Jhonny Peralta .

 With a little more than a month into the season, we're at a point where "it's still early" is becoming less and less of a valid argument. Victor Martinez has gotten off to a very slow start and is only hitting .220/.277/.297 with 1 HR and a 55 OPS+. Meanwhile Jhonny Peralta is having a nice bounce-back season hitting .298/.339/.404 with 2 HR and a 99 OPS+. It appears that V-Mart has picked it up lately hitting .279/.273/.442 over his last 10 games, but Jhonny has kept pace hitting .275/.311/.400 over his last 10 games. The level of competition should also be factored in too as the Tigers just finished a 4-game sweep of the lowly Houston Astros.

 Against other 5th place hitters, the Tigers are 23rd in MLB:

Rk G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS sOPS+
1 BAL 35 33 138 114 22 35 9 0 11 34 0 0 18 37 .307 .399 .675 1.074 187
2 CLE 32 30 127 108 21 33 4 0 7 23 2 0 16 29 .306 .402 .537 .939 155
3 COL 32 32 140 128 20 41 8 1 6 23 2 0 11 23 .320 .371 .539 .910 146
4 OAK 39 34 152 129 26 37 5 1 6 22 4 0 19 33 .287 .384 .481 .865 136
5 KCR 29 29 121 109 14 36 8 2 1 11 5 2 7 13 .330 .380 .468 .848 131
6 ARI 35 33 147 134 18 42 6 1 4 22 2 0 12 27 .313 .367 .463 .830 126
7 SFG 35 33 140 130 16 36 10 1 6 19 5 0 9 27 .277 .321 .508 .829 123
8 LAA 33 32 143 135 15 43 8 0 4 16 1 0 8 33 .319 .357 .467 .823 124
9 BOS 34 33 139 118 17 27 9 0 7 23 0 2 16 45 .229 .338 .483 .821 122
10 TEX 34 33 137 125 15 32 4 1 8 20 1 1 12 21 .256 .321 .496 .817 120
11 NYY 39 31 129 110 18 24 4 0 8 12 1 0 18 19 .218 .333 .473 .806 118
12 TBR 42 32 133 124 15 37 8 1 3 16 1 2 9 23 .298 .346 .452 .797 117
13 LAD 45 32 135 116 7 32 3 0 4 13 0 1 18 16 .276 .378 .405 .783 116
14 HOU 36 33 139 121 22 27 7 3 5 14 0 0 16 37 .223 .317 .455 .771 109
15 PHI 42 34 136 121 12 32 5 2 3 11 0 0 13 26 .264 .338 .413 .751 105
16 STL 40 32 132 126 11 40 6 0 1 21 3 1 5 18 .317 .348 .389 .737 102
17 CHC 42 33 136 125 17 30 10 0 5 17 5 1 7 24 .240 .289 .440 .729 96
18 PIT 40 32 132 112 8 26 6 1 2 14 1 1 18 20 .232 .348 .357 .706 95
19 MIL 45 31 127 112 17 24 2 1 5 16 1 2 13 27 .214 .299 .384 .683 86
20 WSN 34 32 128 117 12 26 7 1 3 9 2 0 10 32 .222 .281 .376 .657 78
21 MIA 34 34 144 136 15 31 9 0 4 16 2 0 7 34 .228 .266 .382 .648 75
22 SDP 39 33 139 120 9 29 6 0 1 16 2 0 17 36 .242 .331 .317 .648 80
23 DET 35 30 139 125 10 30 8 0 1 16 1 0 12 14 .240 .302 .328 .630 73
24 CIN 35 34 153 143 18 34 9 1 1 16 0 2 10 52 .238 .288 .336 .623 71
25 ATL 39 32 135 126 16 26 8 0 4 13 1 0 7 42 .206 .252 .365 .617 67
26 MIN 29 29 122 108 13 21 8 0 1 10 1 0 10 30 .194 .279 .296 .575 58
27 NYM 45 29 124 112 15 20 5 0 4 16 0 0 8 35 .179 .242 .330 .572 55
28 CHW 39 31 127 119 9 23 4 0 3 9 0 0 5 30 .193 .244 .303 .547 49
29 SEA 36 34 143 130 10 24 6 1 2 9 0 0 11 40 .185 .252 .292 .544 49
30 TOR 36 34 138 124 11 20 3 1 1 5 2 1 14 42 .161 .246 .226 .472 31
TOT 1110 964 4075 3657 449 918 195 19 121 482 45 16 356 885 .251 .321 .414 .735 100
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/8/2013.

130 of those 139 PA have come from Victor Martinez. Substituting in Peralta's numbers would move the Tigers to around 15th. It's a small improvement, but every little thing helps.
What about run production? Peralta doesn't have the reputation of driving in runs as Victor Martinez does and the 5th spot in the order kinda demands run production. So far this year with runners in scoring position:

Rk G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS sOPS+
1 Miguel Cabrera 25 54 43 23 1 0 4 32 1 0 9 2 .535 .611 .837 1.448 293
2 Matt Tuiasosopo 6 10 10 4 2 0 1 8 0 0 0 5 .400 .400 .900 1.300 247
3 Austin Jackson 19 26 21 6 1 0 2 10 0 0 5 3 .286 .423 .619 1.042 182
4 Jhonny Peralta 21 33 25 9 1 0 1 14 0 0 5 7 .360 .438 .520 .958 162
5 Prince Fielder 23 47 38 9 2 0 3 21 0 1 7 8 .237 .340 .526 .867 134
6 Torii Hunter 21 34 31 9 0 0 0 12 0 0 3 6 .290 .353 .290 .643 78
7 Victor Martinez 25 45 37 8 3 0 0 12 0 0 6 6 .216 .311 .297 .608 67
8 Omar Infante 19 27 24 6 1 0 0 7 1 0 2 2 .250 .296 .292 .588 62
9 Andy Dirks 13 24 20 5 0 0 0 5 1 0 2 3 .250 .304 .250 .554 53
10 Don Kelly 3 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 37
11 Brayan Pena 6 12 12 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 .083 .083 .083 .167 -54
12 Alex Avila 17 27 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 .040 .111 .040 .151 -57
13 Ramon Santiago 3 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 -100
Team Total 30 348 295 82 11 0 11 123 3 1 41 57 .278 .358 .427 .786 114
Generated 5/8/2013.

After Miguel Cabrera , Peralta has the 3rd highest OPS among regular starters (and Austin Jackson isn't going to be moved out of the lead-off spot any time soon). Now I don't believe he can keep it up, but Peralta is currently 350 points higher in OPS than Victor Martinez in run producing situations. It only makes sense to put him in a better position in the batting order to take advantage of this, even if only temporary.

Temporary is the key word here. We're only talking 33 and 45 PA respectively. That's a small sample and time will stabilize it. Peralta is a career .273/.350/.432 hitter with runners in scoring position while V-Mart is a career .316/.403/.462 hitter with runners in scoring position. However it should be noted that Martinez missed all of the 2012 season due to injury and may never be the hitter he once was.

 Speaking of career numbers, Peralta hasn't historically been a good #5 hitter:

I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS ▾ tOPS+
Batting 2nd 11 8 36 33 7 11 4 0 3 5 1 0 3 8 .333 .389 .727 1.116 191
Batting 6th 299 296 1237 1121 135 317 61 3 39 151 3 1 96 247 .283 .338 .447 .785 109
Batting 4th 138 137 610 551 85 149 42 3 15 87 1 1 48 120 .270 .331 .439 .770 105
Batting 3rd 150 148 669 589 104 150 33 2 22 82 0 1 74 153 .255 .341 .430 .770 106
Batting 7th 259 253 1050 954 113 260 53 7 26 140 1 5 77 201 .273 .326 .425 .750 100
Batting 9th 87 76 293 268 32 68 17 3 8 32 0 3 18 63 .254 .298 .429 .727 92
Batting 8th 110 102 402 359 45 94 12 2 9 36 2 3 37 88 .262 .335 .382 .717 93
Batting 5th 248 247 1057 947 113 230 49 2 25 126 3 5 91 207 .243 .308 .378 .686 84
Batting 1st 2 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1.000
Generated 5/8/2013.

It can also be argued that Victor Martinez has been suffering some unfortunate luck. More observation than statistical, but it seems like Martinez has been hitting the ball well, only to have a great defensive catch being made. It might make sense to wait it out while his luck turns around. V-Mart's 19.6% LD rate should be producing a higher BABIP than .236 (and therefor higher batting lines). Career-wise, V-Mart has a 20.5% LD rate and a .314 BABIP.

 Tonight the Tigers play in a National League park for the first time this year, and so will be without a DH and Victor Martinez. Someone else will be hitting 5th, most likely either Andy Dirks or Jhonny Peralta. Maybe they should think about making it more permanent, at least until Victor Martinez shows that he's the Victor Martinez of old again.
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