Monday, May 6, 2013

Anibal Sanchez’ Strikeouts

Anibal Sanchez’ strikeout rate has unexpectedly skyrocketed so far this year. Since he became a full-time starter:

Strikeout %
2010
18.7%
2011
24.3%
2012
20.4%
2013
31.5%


The first thing that came to my mind was the 17-strikeout performance against the Braves was inflating his totals. And in a way, they are. If we subtract out that performance, we get a 25.4% strikeout rate, which isn’t much higher than his 2011 24.3%. So we could chalk it up as a combination of small samples and a career game. However, it did happen and it begs the questions, what is he doing differently and can he keep it up?

Looking at Pitch f/x plate discipline:

O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone%
2010
29.6%
60.1%
45.9%
65.3%
85.6%
79.5%
53.4%
2011
32.3%
62.9%
48.0%
61.7%
84.2%
76.9%
51.3%
2012
31.0%
62.3%
47.3%
61.6%
87.0%
79.0%
52.2%
2013
30.1%
60.1%
45.7%
52.1%
84.2%
74.1%
52.0%
Total
30.4%
61.1%
46.3%
61.6%
85.9%
78.2%
51.8%

The one stat that stands out is the O-Contact%, which means batters are swinging and missing at more pitches out of the strike zone.

Looking deeper at O-Contact%:

O-Contact% 4-Seam FB Slider Changeup Sinker Curveball Cutter
2010
74.0%
53.8%
58.5%
78.7%
70.2%
71.8%
2011
75.0%
51.7%
51.1%
96.6%
84.0%
78.1%
2012
71.8%
54.2%
54.9%
79.0%
55.0%
85.4%
2013
72.0%
46.4%
41.9%
40.0%
100.0%
33.3%
Total
71.9%
52.8%
53.3%
82.6%
63.5%
77.4%

There’s very little difference in the 4-seam fastball, and that makes sense. He’s thrown that pitch 253 times so far this year, more than any other pitch. The higher the sampling, the more it stabilizes. The sinker and cutter appear to have the most improvement in this category.

And this is the reason why I don’t think Sanchez can keep it up, the small samples.

# Pitches Percentage
4-Seam FB
253
38.9%
Slider
131
20.2%
Changeup
126
19.4%
Sinker
60
9.2%
Curveball
54
8.3%
Cutter
26
4.0%

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