Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Brayan Pena Should Not be an Everyday Starter

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It's the end of May and just past the ¼ mark of the season, which means there's enough playing time for people to stop using the "it's early" and "small sample size" excuses. One such instance is Alex Avila, who has gotten off to a horrible start, hitting only .179/.256/.304 with a 51 wRC+ in 125 PA. In the meantime, Brayan Pena has much better numbers, hitting .275/.296/.412 with an 88 wRC+, but in only 55 PA. Tiger fans are fed up and want a change.

As well as posts from Detroit Tigers.com message board and Motown Sports message board.

 Looking deeper in the numbers, it doesn't appear that Pena would be much of an upgrade.

First of all, historical stats say that Avila is a better hitter:

Brayan Pena:
Year PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wOBA wRC+
2010
174
0.253
0.306
0.335
6.9%
15.5%
0.288
75
2011
240
0.248
0.288
0.338
5.0%
10.0%
0.277
70
2012
226
0.236
0.262
0.321
4.0%
10.6%
0.254
55
2010-2012
640
0.245
0.284
0.331
5.2%
11.7%
0.272
66

Alex Avila:
Year PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wOBA wRC+
2010
333
0.228
0.316
0.340
10.8%
21.3%
0.299
81
2011
551
0.295
0.389
0.506
13.2%
23.8%
0.384
141
2012
434
0.243
0.352
0.384
14.1%
24.0%
0.327
104
2010-2012
1318
0.260
0.358
0.423
12.9%
23.2%
0.343
114

Even if Avila's 2011 season gets heavily discounted because of a fluky career year, his 81 wRC+ in 2010 is still better than any of the last 3 years by Pena. The only year that Pena has done better than an 81 wRC+ and had significant playing time was in 2009, when he had a 94 wRC+. The same principle of fluky career year could also be applied to that year too since he hasn't come close to matching that until the 13 games he's played so far this year.

So maybe Pena is doing something different. Maybe he's changed his approach to become a more successful hitter?
Year BABIP LD% GB% FB%
2010
0.295
16.3%
45.0%
38.8%
2011
0.261
22.9%
44.3%
32.8%
2012
0.253
24.6%
48.2%
27.2%
2013
0.279
11.1%
57.8%
31.1%
Career
0.266
20.9%
48.8%
30.3%


There's definitely a huge increase of ground balls, and a decrease in line drives. Pena has 14 hits and 7 of them have been hit on the ground (including 3 infield hits). That's 50% of his hits coming from ground balls compared to 34% in both 2012 and his career. Pena isn't the fleetest of foot, so to have him have continued success by hitting ground balls instead of line drives isn't very likely. This is likely random variance from only playing in 13 games.

Here are his plate discipline numbers:


Year O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone%
2010
31.4%
64.5%
48.5%
65.6%
90.5%
82.7%
51.7%
2011
28.7%
61.0%
45.1%
79.4%
93.9%
89.4%
50.6%
2012
31.9%
60.4%
46.5%
76.7%
94.5%
88.5%
51.1%
2013
29.5%
63.0%
45.9%
67.7%
95.2%
86.2%
48.8%
Career
30.5%
61.2%
45.8%
76.7%
93.5%
87.9%
49.8%

There isn't much difference in his 2013 numbers than his recent seasons or his career totals. The stat with the most difference is his O-Contact rate is lower, which means when he swings at pitches out of the strike zone, he's missing more often. That is the opposite of an improvement.

What about Avila? Is he doing something different to cause less success?


Year BABIP LD% GB% FB%
2010
0.278
21.5%
43.5%
35.0%
2011
0.366
21.7%
37.8%
40.5%
2012
0.313
23.8%
46.4%
29.8%
2013
0.219
19.7%
50.0%
30.3%
Career
0.316
21.7%
42.8%
35.5%

Avila's BABIP is down almost 100 points from last year and his career. His batted ball data doesn't have a dramatic change from his previous seasons and his career. Therefore, it's reasonable to conclude that Avila is either suffering from BABIP bad luck or an injury is causing it.

Avila's plate disciple numbers:
Year O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone%
2010
23.4%
64.3%
44.2%
52.3%
86.8%
77.8%
50.7%
2011
24.7%
60.2%
43.0%
49.0%
86.1%
75.8%
51.5%
2012
20.9%
58.7%
39.3%
51.6%
82.1%
73.8%
48.8%
2013
20.3%
62.8%
42.0%
46.3%
79.3%
71.5%
51.0%
Career
22.6%
61.1%
42.1%
49.9%
84.7%
75.5%
50.5%

Avila's main problem is his Contact%, both in the strike zone and out of the zone. He's swinging and missing more often than he ever did, which definitely explains the increase in strikeouts (28.8% in 2013) and decrease in walks (9.6% in 2013). It's hard to imagine a 26 year old suddenly become a weaker hitter than he was a year ago, so I'm leaning towards the injury theory.

Finally, there's ZIPS rest of the season stats. While these stats don't show exactly what will happen in the future, they do show who is likely to be better for the rest of the season.


Player PA AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wOBA wRC+
Brayan Pena
164
0.260
0.293
0.369
4.3%
11.8%
0.290
77
Alex Avila
351
0.236
0.334
0.390
12.6%
25.3%
0.320
97

Alex Avila may need to be replaced (or DL'd), but the answer isn't Brayan Pena.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Rick Porcello’s Improved Changeup

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When Rick Porcello decided to ditch his slider this year, most people expected that it would be his curveball to show marked improvement since that was the pitch that he was substituting the slider for. Well so far, it's been the changeup that's shown much improvement.  

 According to Pitch f/x pitch values/100, Porcello's changeup has a value of 3.63 so far this year. That's not only the best value pitch for Porcello this year, it's the best value pitch that he's ever had (0 is average, positive results are above average, negative results are below average).


Year 4-Seam FB 2-Seam FB Cutter Slider Curveball Changeup
2009
0.92
0.22
-1.38
-2.94
-1.49
-1.20
2010
0.45
0.09
-1.77
-3.81
0.44
2011
-0.13
-0.65
0.18
-0.84
-0.45
2012
-0.68
0.14
-3.84
0.65
0.07
2013
-2.10
-2.05
1.42
0.35
3.63

Of course, it's still May and so, "beware of small samples." Porcello has thrown a total of 543 pitches so far this year and only 98 of them have been changeups.  FanGraphs even tells us that these pitch values have little predictive values:
This statistic has limited predictive power. It can show you what pitches a pitcher has had success with in the past, but you should be careful in extrapolating those results and projecting the future. It’s a descriptive statistic, not a predictive one.
Looking deeper in Pitch f/x, we can see why his changeup has been so valuable.


Changeups PA HR BB K AVG OBP SLG
2009
100
3
8
12
0.275
0.333
0.429
2010
80
0
1
13
0.253
0.263
0.304
2011
78
1
0
14
0.253
0.260
0.427
2012
103
3
7
14
0.240
0.291
0.406
2013
35
0
1
9
0.176
0.200
0.206

The one stat that jumps out at me the most is the strikeouts. Already Porcello has 9 strikeouts on the changeup in 35 PA, 5 less than his career high that took him 103 PA last year and 78 PA in 2011. Has Porcello finally gotten his strikeout pitch?

Here's how Porcello's changeup compares to his other pitches:


2013
PA HR BB K AVG OBP SLG
2-Seam FB
58
1
4
5
0.415
0.466
0.528
4-Seam FB
27
3
1
5
0.269
0.296
0.654
Curveball
17
1
1
2
0.125
0.176
0.375
Changeup
35
0
1
9
0.176
0.200
0.206

Again, the one stat that jumps out at me is the strikeouts. Historically, Porcello has gotten most of his strikeouts on his 2-Seamer (or sinker as he calls it). But this year it's come from the changeup. "Beware of the small samples" again; things could even out by the end of the year. However, I would like to see Porcello throw his changeup a little more often to see if there's something there. He already is throwing it more than he has in the past:


Year Changeup %
2009
14.4%
2010
11.7%
2011
11.4%
2012
13.6%
2013
18.1%

Although, I'd like to see it be his 2nd most frequent pitch, right after his 2-Seam FB (sinker):

Pitch Type Percentage
4-Seam FB %
24.3%
2-Seam FB %
38.9%
Slider %
0.7%
Curveball %
18.1%
Changeup %
18.1%
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Saturday, May 11, 2013

Max Scherzer’s LOB%

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Max Scherzer is having a really good year this year, especially so if ERA is ignored. In defense independent stats, Scherzer ranks as one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball so far this year:
Stat Value Rank
fWAR
2.0
T-2nd
FIP
1.87
T-2nd
xFIP
2.30
3rd
tERA
2.18
3rd
SIERA
2.27
2nd

However, his ERA is 3.61, which ranks him at 56 among starting pitchers. What's going on? Well it seems it all has to do with his left on base percentage (LOB%). His LOB% is 63.1%, ranking him 8th lowest and well below the league average rate of 73.3%. If these runners aren't left on base, it means they are scoring and raising the pitcher's ERA. It's been long thought of that this stat is a luck stat and will eventually even out by the end of the season to around league average.

 In 2012, FanGraphs introduced fielding dependent pitching, suggesting that pitchers do have some control over balls in play and that it's not all luck (as FIP only factors in strikeouts, walks, hit batters and home runs). One of those stats was LOB-Wins, stating that there could be some skill involved in stranding runners.

 Below is how Scherzer has been in LOB-Wins while with the Tigers:
Year LOB-Wins
2010
0.3
2011
0.4
2012
0.6
2013
-0.9

The -0.9 ranks him 2nd lowest among starting pitchers . However, he's always been able to have a positive number, which means he's been a little bit better than league average, as shown:
Year LOB% League
LOB%
2010
74.9%
72.2%
2011
73.7%
72.5%
2012
76.5%
72.5%
2013
63.1%
73.3%

One of two things is happening. Either he's doing something differently that has changed his skill (either mentally, mechanically or something else) or it truly is luck and he'll regress back to mean. If it is luck (unfortunate luck in this case) or something mechanical that can be fixed, then Scherzer is primed for a really good year this year as he regresses back to his career norm.
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Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Should Jhonny Peralta be batting 5th?

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It seems like this discussion was going on last year. An underperforming player is hitting 5th while not a great option, but seemingly better one, is hitting lower in the order. Only this time the underperforming player is Victor Martinez instead of Delmon Young and both times that seemingly better player looks to be Jhonny Peralta .

 With a little more than a month into the season, we're at a point where "it's still early" is becoming less and less of a valid argument. Victor Martinez has gotten off to a very slow start and is only hitting .220/.277/.297 with 1 HR and a 55 OPS+. Meanwhile Jhonny Peralta is having a nice bounce-back season hitting .298/.339/.404 with 2 HR and a 99 OPS+. It appears that V-Mart has picked it up lately hitting .279/.273/.442 over his last 10 games, but Jhonny has kept pace hitting .275/.311/.400 over his last 10 games. The level of competition should also be factored in too as the Tigers just finished a 4-game sweep of the lowly Houston Astros.

 Against other 5th place hitters, the Tigers are 23rd in MLB:

Rk G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS sOPS+
1 BAL 35 33 138 114 22 35 9 0 11 34 0 0 18 37 .307 .399 .675 1.074 187
2 CLE 32 30 127 108 21 33 4 0 7 23 2 0 16 29 .306 .402 .537 .939 155
3 COL 32 32 140 128 20 41 8 1 6 23 2 0 11 23 .320 .371 .539 .910 146
4 OAK 39 34 152 129 26 37 5 1 6 22 4 0 19 33 .287 .384 .481 .865 136
5 KCR 29 29 121 109 14 36 8 2 1 11 5 2 7 13 .330 .380 .468 .848 131
6 ARI 35 33 147 134 18 42 6 1 4 22 2 0 12 27 .313 .367 .463 .830 126
7 SFG 35 33 140 130 16 36 10 1 6 19 5 0 9 27 .277 .321 .508 .829 123
8 LAA 33 32 143 135 15 43 8 0 4 16 1 0 8 33 .319 .357 .467 .823 124
9 BOS 34 33 139 118 17 27 9 0 7 23 0 2 16 45 .229 .338 .483 .821 122
10 TEX 34 33 137 125 15 32 4 1 8 20 1 1 12 21 .256 .321 .496 .817 120
11 NYY 39 31 129 110 18 24 4 0 8 12 1 0 18 19 .218 .333 .473 .806 118
12 TBR 42 32 133 124 15 37 8 1 3 16 1 2 9 23 .298 .346 .452 .797 117
13 LAD 45 32 135 116 7 32 3 0 4 13 0 1 18 16 .276 .378 .405 .783 116
14 HOU 36 33 139 121 22 27 7 3 5 14 0 0 16 37 .223 .317 .455 .771 109
15 PHI 42 34 136 121 12 32 5 2 3 11 0 0 13 26 .264 .338 .413 .751 105
16 STL 40 32 132 126 11 40 6 0 1 21 3 1 5 18 .317 .348 .389 .737 102
17 CHC 42 33 136 125 17 30 10 0 5 17 5 1 7 24 .240 .289 .440 .729 96
18 PIT 40 32 132 112 8 26 6 1 2 14 1 1 18 20 .232 .348 .357 .706 95
19 MIL 45 31 127 112 17 24 2 1 5 16 1 2 13 27 .214 .299 .384 .683 86
20 WSN 34 32 128 117 12 26 7 1 3 9 2 0 10 32 .222 .281 .376 .657 78
21 MIA 34 34 144 136 15 31 9 0 4 16 2 0 7 34 .228 .266 .382 .648 75
22 SDP 39 33 139 120 9 29 6 0 1 16 2 0 17 36 .242 .331 .317 .648 80
23 DET 35 30 139 125 10 30 8 0 1 16 1 0 12 14 .240 .302 .328 .630 73
24 CIN 35 34 153 143 18 34 9 1 1 16 0 2 10 52 .238 .288 .336 .623 71
25 ATL 39 32 135 126 16 26 8 0 4 13 1 0 7 42 .206 .252 .365 .617 67
26 MIN 29 29 122 108 13 21 8 0 1 10 1 0 10 30 .194 .279 .296 .575 58
27 NYM 45 29 124 112 15 20 5 0 4 16 0 0 8 35 .179 .242 .330 .572 55
28 CHW 39 31 127 119 9 23 4 0 3 9 0 0 5 30 .193 .244 .303 .547 49
29 SEA 36 34 143 130 10 24 6 1 2 9 0 0 11 40 .185 .252 .292 .544 49
30 TOR 36 34 138 124 11 20 3 1 1 5 2 1 14 42 .161 .246 .226 .472 31
TOT 1110 964 4075 3657 449 918 195 19 121 482 45 16 356 885 .251 .321 .414 .735 100
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/8/2013.

130 of those 139 PA have come from Victor Martinez. Substituting in Peralta's numbers would move the Tigers to around 15th. It's a small improvement, but every little thing helps.
What about run production? Peralta doesn't have the reputation of driving in runs as Victor Martinez does and the 5th spot in the order kinda demands run production. So far this year with runners in scoring position:

Rk G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS sOPS+
1 Miguel Cabrera 25 54 43 23 1 0 4 32 1 0 9 2 .535 .611 .837 1.448 293
2 Matt Tuiasosopo 6 10 10 4 2 0 1 8 0 0 0 5 .400 .400 .900 1.300 247
3 Austin Jackson 19 26 21 6 1 0 2 10 0 0 5 3 .286 .423 .619 1.042 182
4 Jhonny Peralta 21 33 25 9 1 0 1 14 0 0 5 7 .360 .438 .520 .958 162
5 Prince Fielder 23 47 38 9 2 0 3 21 0 1 7 8 .237 .340 .526 .867 134
6 Torii Hunter 21 34 31 9 0 0 0 12 0 0 3 6 .290 .353 .290 .643 78
7 Victor Martinez 25 45 37 8 3 0 0 12 0 0 6 6 .216 .311 .297 .608 67
8 Omar Infante 19 27 24 6 1 0 0 7 1 0 2 2 .250 .296 .292 .588 62
9 Andy Dirks 13 24 20 5 0 0 0 5 1 0 2 3 .250 .304 .250 .554 53
10 Don Kelly 3 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 37
11 Brayan Pena 6 12 12 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 .083 .083 .083 .167 -54
12 Alex Avila 17 27 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 .040 .111 .040 .151 -57
13 Ramon Santiago 3 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 -100
Team Total 30 348 295 82 11 0 11 123 3 1 41 57 .278 .358 .427 .786 114
Generated 5/8/2013.

After Miguel Cabrera , Peralta has the 3rd highest OPS among regular starters (and Austin Jackson isn't going to be moved out of the lead-off spot any time soon). Now I don't believe he can keep it up, but Peralta is currently 350 points higher in OPS than Victor Martinez in run producing situations. It only makes sense to put him in a better position in the batting order to take advantage of this, even if only temporary.

Temporary is the key word here. We're only talking 33 and 45 PA respectively. That's a small sample and time will stabilize it. Peralta is a career .273/.350/.432 hitter with runners in scoring position while V-Mart is a career .316/.403/.462 hitter with runners in scoring position. However it should be noted that Martinez missed all of the 2012 season due to injury and may never be the hitter he once was.

 Speaking of career numbers, Peralta hasn't historically been a good #5 hitter:

I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS ▾ tOPS+
Batting 2nd 11 8 36 33 7 11 4 0 3 5 1 0 3 8 .333 .389 .727 1.116 191
Batting 6th 299 296 1237 1121 135 317 61 3 39 151 3 1 96 247 .283 .338 .447 .785 109
Batting 4th 138 137 610 551 85 149 42 3 15 87 1 1 48 120 .270 .331 .439 .770 105
Batting 3rd 150 148 669 589 104 150 33 2 22 82 0 1 74 153 .255 .341 .430 .770 106
Batting 7th 259 253 1050 954 113 260 53 7 26 140 1 5 77 201 .273 .326 .425 .750 100
Batting 9th 87 76 293 268 32 68 17 3 8 32 0 3 18 63 .254 .298 .429 .727 92
Batting 8th 110 102 402 359 45 94 12 2 9 36 2 3 37 88 .262 .335 .382 .717 93
Batting 5th 248 247 1057 947 113 230 49 2 25 126 3 5 91 207 .243 .308 .378 .686 84
Batting 1st 2 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1.000
Generated 5/8/2013.

It can also be argued that Victor Martinez has been suffering some unfortunate luck. More observation than statistical, but it seems like Martinez has been hitting the ball well, only to have a great defensive catch being made. It might make sense to wait it out while his luck turns around. V-Mart's 19.6% LD rate should be producing a higher BABIP than .236 (and therefor higher batting lines). Career-wise, V-Mart has a 20.5% LD rate and a .314 BABIP.

 Tonight the Tigers play in a National League park for the first time this year, and so will be without a DH and Victor Martinez. Someone else will be hitting 5th, most likely either Andy Dirks or Jhonny Peralta. Maybe they should think about making it more permanent, at least until Victor Martinez shows that he's the Victor Martinez of old again.
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