They key to
Alburquerque’s success is his devastating slider. He loved that pitch so much, that he threw it
over 50% of the time! There has been speculation that throwing too many sliders could lead to injuries in the future. So when it was discovered that
Alburquerque needed a screw inserted in his elbow due to a non-displaced stress
fracture, one could argue that this surgery was directly related to the overuse of his
slider.
Now
Alburquerque is rehabbing in AAA and it looks like a mid-August return is
likely. The thing is, the bullpen has
been performing so well, that there isn’t an obvious move on who will get sent
down.
Jose Valverde
– 3.71 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 4.97 xFIP
Joaquin Benoit – 2.81 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 3.21 xFIP
Octavio Dotel
– 3.34 ERA, 1.80 FIP, 2.40 xFIP
Phil Coke –
3.56 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.77 xFIP
Duane Below –
3.40 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.89 xFIP
Brayan Villarreal – 1.32 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 3.32 xFIP
Darin Downs –
1.86 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 2.40 xFIP
Valverde,
Benoit, Dotel and Coke aren’t going anywhere. Villarreal is doing what
Alburquerque did last year, coming out of nowhere to post a great ERA and
strikeout rate (11.91 K/9) in 34 innings. It could be argued that he has been the Tigers best bullpen arm this year, so it would be a shame to send him down. Downs has put up his numbers in only 9 2/3
innings, so his inexperience could lead to his demotion, despite pitching well enough to stay. Below is the wild card; he’s been
able to hold onto a ML job all year, but lately hasn’t been performing all that
well (8 ER in his last 11 2/3 IP). His overall numbers are very solid, though.
Drew Smyly
adds another variable. If the Tigers
want him on the post-season roster, he’ll have to be added to the 25-man roster
before September 1st, which means someone else has to be sent
down. Smyly lost his starting rotation
spot when the Tigers acquired Anibal Sanchez.
Instead of getting sent to the bullpen, the Tigers optioned him to AAA
when he got healthy despite having solid overall numbers (4.42 ERA, 3.86 FIP,
3.88 xFIP) including 10 strikeouts in 6 IP in his last ML start.
It appears
that 1 or 2 pitchers might get left off the post-season roster (if the Tigers even make the playoffs) despite pitching well enough to earn a spot. It’s a nice problem to have as they say, "you can't have enough pitching." At least if Alburquerque can get back to what
he was able to do last year and remain healthy, then losing of Valverde to free
agency won’t be a huge loss.
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