FIP =
((13*HR) + (3*BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + Constant
The constant
puts it on the same scale as ERA and will be different each year as the run
environment changes.
I found this by Tangotiger, who tweaked the formula to included batted ball data. Infield fly balls (pop-ups) almost always
result in an out, so they are very similar to getting a strikeout. Line drives result in a hit at a very high
rate, so they are similar to giving up a walk.
Ground balls and fly balls are somewhere in the middle (about one-fourth
between BB and K according to the article).
The formula is:
ERA = 11*bigs
+ 3*smalls + Constant
Bigs =
((BB+LD) – (K+IFB)))/PA
Smalls =
(OFB-GB)/PA
And BB are
actually BB – IBB + HBP.
I did some
number crunching to see how the Tigers pitching is performing in this bbFIP
stat so far this year:
Starters:
Max Scherzer –
3.20
Justin Verlander – 3.31
Drew Smyly –
3.54
Doug Fister –
3.65
Rick Porcello
– 4.34
Anibal Sanchez – 5.76 (only time in DET)
Relievers
(min 20 IP):
Octavio Dotel
– 1.74
Joaquin Benoit – 2.98
Brayan Villarreal – 3.36
Phil Coke –
3.74
Jose Valverde
– 4.67
Duane Below –
4.81
The Tigers as
a team are at 3.79 bbFIP.
It is
shocking to see Max Scherzer at the top of the starters list instead of Justin
Verlander.
SIERA is another ERA estimator that also uses batted ball data, but it is a lot more complicated. Here’s how
the Tigers pitchers fare in this stat:
Starters:
Max Scherzer –
3.05
Justin
Verlander – 3.27
Doug Fister –
3.34
Drew Smyly –
3.62
Rick Porcello
– 3.97
Anibal
Sanchez – 4.76 (only time in DET)
Relievers
(min. 20 IP):
Octavio Dotel
– 1.99
Joaquin
Benoit – 2.75
Brayan
Villarreal – 2.94
Phil Coke –
3.40
Duane Below –
3.86
Jose Valverde
– 4.29
Max Scherzer
again is leading in SIERA. In fact, he’s leading the entire American League in SIERA and trailing only Stephen Strasburg
(2.72) and R.A. Dickey (3.00) for the Major League lead. It makes me wonder how Scherzer would do with
a better defense behind him. This also
puts it into perspective how amazing his season really is with his high
strikeout rate, 11.34 K/9.
Is Scherzer
the most under-rated starting pitcher in baseball? A good argument can surely be made for it.
Nice article with some good information you won't find just anywhere.
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