The Marlins and
Tigers also swap competitive balance lottery draft picks. So now the Tigers get the 6th pick
after the first round and the Marlins will get the 6th pick after
the second round.
The Tigers
seem to have addressed both needs according to Dave Dombrowski in one swoop, a
starting pitcher and a second basemen.
They were able to keep Nick Castellanos, but top prospect Jacob Turner
had to be dealt.
The new
Tigers:
Anibal
Sanchez – 121 IP | 3.94 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 8.18 K/9 | 2.45 BB/9 | 3.40 FIP |
3.51 xFIP
Sanchez
slides into the rotation that includes Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Max
Scherzer and Rick Porcello. Drew Smyly
is likely the odd man out for now and his injury might be more serious than the
Tigers had us beleive. They were also
going to limit his innings, so a move to the bullpen is likely if and when he gets
healthy. It will be interesting to see
who the odd man out is when the playoffs come around, as teams only need a
4-man rotation (most likely it’ll be between Scherzer and Porcello). If the Tigers feel that Smyly has earned a
spot in the rotation next year, Scherzer or Porcello could be dealt in the
off-season. But first Anibal Sanchez has
to be resigned as he is in his final year of his contract. Compensation draft picks do not get traded
with the player as in the new CBA, so the Tigers will get nothing if Sanchez
leaves via Free Agency. Given how much
the Tigers gave up for this deal, I have to think that they are going to try to
resign Sanchez.
The Tigers
already had the best starting rotation FIP (3.76), xFIP (3.63), SIERA (3.66)
and the second best tERA (4.39) in the American League. So an argument can be made that they were
already the best rotation in the AL before adding Sanchez. However, if Smyly has to be out for a long
period of time, the Tigers had to add someone.
Sanchez just isn’t anyone, though.
Over the last 3 years, he has an ERA of 3.69, a strikeout rate of 8.24
K/9, a walk rate of 2.93 BB/9 an FIP of 3.35 and an xFIP of 3.61. He easily becomes the Tigers 2nd
or 3rd best starter and gives the Tigers much needed depth in their
rotation. Dombrowski bypassed an innings
eater and went straight for a middle of the rotation starter.
Omar Infante
- .287/.312/.442, .330 wOBA, 104 wRC+
Some say
second base was the Tigers biggest need.
Infante was rumored as one of the Tigers targets along with Marco
Scutaro and Darwin Barney. Infante already
played for the Tigers from 2002 to 2007 where he hit .253/.289/.386. His past history with the Tigers and
Dombrowski’s relationship with the Marlins probably had him #1 on the Tigers
list.
Infante
becomes an immediate upgrade for the Tigers as he takes over one, if not the weakest
positions. Tigers 2B were hitting a
combined .193/.265/.273, .243 wOBA, 46 wRC+.
Not only were they horrible on offense, but defensively they were near the
bottom with a -25 DRS and a -23.5 UZR.
Not only does Infate bring a league average bat with him, but positive
fielding (5 DRA and 5.5 UZR at 2B).
Infante is signed through next year at $4 million, so he’ll likely
remain the starting 2B until 2014.
The Now
Former Tigers:
Jacob Turner –
62 2/3 IP | 3.16 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 5.74 K/9 | 3.45 BB/9 | 3.58 FIP (AAA)
- 12 1/3 IP | 8.03 ERA | 1.95 WHIP | 5.11 K/9 | 5.11 BB/9 | 7.85 FIP (MLB)
- 12 1/3 IP | 8.03 ERA | 1.95 WHIP | 5.11 K/9 | 5.11 BB/9 | 7.85 FIP (MLB)
Rob Brantly –
195 PA | .311/.359/.461 | .362 wOBA | 122 wRC+ (AA)
- 139
PA | .254/.295/.285 | .269 wOBA | 60 wRC+ (AAA)
Brian Flynn –
102 IP | 3.44 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 7.41 K/9 | 2.82 BB/9 | 3.22 FIP (A+)
Despite some
ML struggles for Turner, he’s still expected to be a #2 or #3 starter. Brantly’s ceiling is probably an average ML
starting catcher and Flynn could be a Duane Below-like player at the ML level. A few months ago I ranked Turner #1 (althoughby now he’s probably #2 as Castellanos has passed him), Brantly as #6 and Flynnas #14 on the Tigers top prospect list.
The Tigers didn’t get a steal in this trade as all three of these
players could be contributors in the majors.
However, the Tigers are in a “win now” mode and this is the price that
has to be paid.
My initial
reaction to this trade was a little overpayment on the Tigers side. Now that I have had time to process it, I
give it a win for the Tigers now with a wait and see approach. Wait and see how far the Tigers make it to
the playoffs, wait and see if the Tigers resign Anibal Sanchez and wait and see
if the prospects the Tigers gave up reach their full potential.
Nice work Jeff - 3D
ReplyDeleteGood job! Nice analysis!
ReplyDeleteWhy do you assume the Tigers even make the playoffs?
ReplyDeleteWait and see how far the Tiggers make it to the playoffs, aren't you really saying two things--see if they make it to the playoffs, and how far they go once they're in. They've been on their back most of the year, looking up at Chicago
ReplyDeleteOk, technically, they have to make the playoffs in order to go "far" in the playoffs. If they miss the playoffs, that just makes the deal that much worse.
ReplyDeleteSanchez pitched like he normally does meh and Infante put up all his numbers in the first month of season.
ReplyDeleteHome run derby today! Willing to give Infante some slack to get used to the teammates and surroundings. So far, and I say so far, Infante has already made an error and we saw what happened today with Sanchez.
DeleteAgree with "Anonymous' how can one assume The Tigers even make the playoffs? I seriously doubt if they will. What about Fielder being paid $148,000 per game. $214 million divided by 9; divided by 162. Think he is worth it?
ReplyDelete