Neither
Raburn nor Kelly have had much offensive production this year. Raburn is hitting .172/.227/.255 with only 1
HR and12 RBI. He was already sent to the
minors once this year, right before his “veteran” clause kicked in that would
allow him to refuse the assignment.
Since returning to the Tigers, Raburn has hit .217/.260/.333, which is
better but a far cry from the 2nd half numbers we are used to seeing
from him the last couple of years. His
sub-.500 OPS is even lower than his career .641 1st half OPS,
suggesting that his 2nd half resurgence isn’t even going to happen
this year. And now that he can refuse an assignment to the minors, he isn't the obvious choice anymore.
Then there’s
Don Kelly. Kelly has never been on
offensive juggernaut, hitting only .244/.282/.378 over the last 2 years. However, this year he’s hit a pathetic
.178/.272/.248, which is far below expectations.
Of course,
offensive has always been secondary to Kelly as his true talents have always
been flexibility and defense. He has
mainly played in the OF this year, but has also filled in the infield. His DRS and UZR have shown him to be an
average to an above average defensive player.
But his defense might not help him this time, as he has regressed as he’s
gotten older and his dWAR is only at -0.1 this year.
Raburn also
has flexibility, playing 2B and OF this year.
He was forced out of the 2B position when the Tigers acquired Omar
Infante, but Leyland expressed that he still wanted to play Raburn in LF when there’s
a left-hander on the mound. Quintin
Berry has struggled against lefties this year, only hitting .224/.240/.367
against them, so Leyland may want to continue benching him when a left-hander starts.
As far as Raburn’s defense is concerned, he’s been bad at 2B, with a -3 DRS and -2.2 UZR this year (-18 DRS and -16.6 UZR career). Although, he has been better in the OF (even though people only seem to remember the HR he helped assist). With Ramon Santiago now back to a fulltime back-up infielder, Raburn might now only be seen as an outfielder. That helps Kelly’s case as he can do both OF and INF, but Raburn is a right-handed bat. Kelly, Berry and Dirks are all left-handed hitters. Leyland might want to keep Raburn around just so he can go to a right-hander when a southpaw is on the mound.
As far as Raburn’s defense is concerned, he’s been bad at 2B, with a -3 DRS and -2.2 UZR this year (-18 DRS and -16.6 UZR career). Although, he has been better in the OF (even though people only seem to remember the HR he helped assist). With Ramon Santiago now back to a fulltime back-up infielder, Raburn might now only be seen as an outfielder. That helps Kelly’s case as he can do both OF and INF, but Raburn is a right-handed bat. Kelly, Berry and Dirks are all left-handed hitters. Leyland might want to keep Raburn around just so he can go to a right-hander when a southpaw is on the mound.
If it were my
choice – flip a coin. Neither one is
going to have that much of an impact.
Both have been below replacement level, Raburn at a -1.3 fWAR, -1.8 rWAR
and Kelly at -0.5 fWAR, -0.5 rWAR.
Neither one is going to be the first choice off the bench. Santiago will handle the back-up infield
positions and Berry will handle the back-up outfield positions (assuming Dirks
is handed the LF position).
Both Kelly
and Raburn are Leyland guys, so my guess on what the Tigers will do is to delay
this inevitable decision and send pitcher Darin Downs back to the minors. Dombrowski rarely goes with less than 12
pitchers, but with the acquisition of Anibal Sanchez, the Tigers are deep in
starting rotation. When Drew Smyly gets
healthy and comes back, then the Raburn/Kelly decision will be made. Maybe by then, something else will happen
(like another injury or trade) that will delay the decision even further. After all, this is such a tough decision as both Kelly and Raburn are so close to equal value.
Good write up Jeff.
ReplyDeleteWith the starters getting in a lot of innings lately, your Downs theory may hold water. Didn't think of that.
ReplyDeleteDFA Raburn
ReplyDeleteDirks is everyday LF
DY is DH