Trade Reaction: Jacob Turner, Rob Brantly and Brian Flynn for Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante

The Marlins and Tigers also swap competitive balance lottery draft picks.  So now the Tigers get the 6^th pick after the first round and the Marlins will get the 6^th pick after the second round. 

The Tigers seem to have addressed both needs according to Dave Dombrowski in one swoop, a starting pitcher and a second basemen.  They were able to keep Nick Castellanos, but top prospect Jacob Turner had to be dealt.

The new Tigers:

Anibal Sanchez – 121 IP | 3.94 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 8.18 K/9 | 2.45 BB/9 | 3.40 FIP | 3.51 xFIP

Sanchez slides into the rotation that includes Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello.  Drew Smyly is likely the odd man out for now and his injury might be more serious than the Tigers had us beleive.  They were also going to limit his innings, so a move to the bullpen is likely if and when he gets healthy.  It will be interesting to see who the odd man out is when the playoffs come around, as teams only need a 4-man rotation (most likely it’ll be between Scherzer and Porcello).  If the Tigers feel that Smyly has earned a spot in the rotation next year, Scherzer or Porcello could be dealt in the off-season.  But first Anibal Sanchez has to be resigned as he is in his final year of his contract.  Compensation draft picks do not get traded with the player as in the new CBA, so the Tigers will get nothing if Sanchez leaves via Free Agency.  Given how much the Tigers gave up for this deal, I have to think that they are going to try to resign Sanchez. 

The Tigers already had the best starting rotation FIP (3.76), xFIP (3.63), SIERA (3.66) and the second best tERA (4.39) in the American League.  So an argument can be made that they were already the best rotation in the AL before adding Sanchez.  However, if Smyly has to be out for a long period of time, the Tigers had to add someone.  Sanchez just isn’t anyone, though.  Over the last 3 years, he has an ERA of 3.69, a strikeout rate of 8.24 K/9, a walk rate of 2.93 BB/9 an FIP of 3.35 and an xFIP of 3.61.  He easily becomes the Tigers 2^nd or 3^rd best starter and gives the Tigers much needed depth in their rotation.  Dombrowski bypassed an innings eater and went straight for a middle of the rotation starter.

Omar Infante - .287/.312/.442, .330 wOBA, 104 wRC+

Some say second base was the Tigers biggest need.  Infante was rumored as one of the Tigers targets along with Marco Scutaro and Darwin Barney.  Infante already played for the Tigers from 2002 to 2007 where he hit .253/.289/.386.  His past history with the Tigers and Dombrowski’s relationship with the Marlins probably had him #1 on the Tigers list. 

Infante becomes an immediate upgrade for the Tigers as he takes over one, if not the weakest positions.  Tigers 2B were hitting a combined .193/.265/.273, .243 wOBA, 46 wRC+.  Not only were they horrible on offense, but defensively they were near the bottom with a -25 DRS and a -23.5 UZR.  Not only does Infate bring a league average bat with him, but positive fielding (5 DRA and 5.5 UZR at 2B).  Infante is signed through next year at $4 million, so he’ll likely remain the starting 2B until 2014.

The Now Former Tigers:

Jacob Turner – 62 2/3 IP | 3.16 ERA | 1.23 WHIP | 5.74 K/9 | 3.45 BB/9 | 3.58 FIP (AAA)
         - 12 1/3 IP | 8.03 ERA | 1.95 WHIP | 5.11 K/9 | 5.11 BB/9 | 7.85 FIP (MLB)

Rob Brantly – 195 PA | .311/.359/.461 | .362 wOBA | 122 wRC+ (AA)

         - 139 PA | .254/.295/.285 | .269 wOBA | 60 wRC+ (AAA)

Brian Flynn – 102 IP | 3.44 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 7.41 K/9 | 2.82 BB/9 | 3.22 FIP (A+)

Despite some ML struggles for Turner, he’s still expected to be a #2 or #3 starter.  Brantly’s ceiling is probably an average ML starting catcher and Flynn could be a Duane Below-like player at the ML level.  A few months ago I ranked Turner #1 (althoughby now he’s probably #2 as Castellanos has passed him), Brantly as #6 and Flynnas #14 on the Tigers top prospect list.  The Tigers didn’t get a steal in this trade as all three of these players could be contributors in the majors.  However, the Tigers are in a “win now” mode and this is the price that has to be paid. 

My initial reaction to this trade was a little overpayment on the Tigers side.  Now that I have had time to process it, I give it a win for the Tigers now with a wait and see approach.  Wait and see how far the Tigers make it to the playoffs, wait and see if the Tigers resign Anibal Sanchez and wait and see if the prospects the Tigers gave up reach their full potential.

Darwin Barney Would Improve the Tigers

There have been various speculations on what positions the Tigers could improve on and who to trade, including trading top prospects Nick Castellanos and Jacob Turner for a superstar.  But the one player that has me the most intrigued is Cubs' second baseman Darwin Barney. 

First, the offense.  The Tigers have the worst offensive production out of the 2B position of any team in MLB, hitting a combined .193/.259/.273 with a .239 wOBA and 43 wRC+.  Darwin Barney would be an immediate upgrade, currently hitting .259/.304/.362 with a .295 wOBA and 79 wRC+.  But then again, those aren’t spectacular numbers.  In fact, those are below average numbers.  So why do I like Barney so much?

The defense.  Darwin Barney currently leads all second basemen in DRS at 23, while his UZR is a less than impressive 3.2 but still 9^th in all of baseball.  Whichever one you believe is more accurate, it’s better than what the Tigers are currently running out there and most likely better than any of the other 2B on the trading block.  This is very important to a team like the Tigers who have been one of the worst defensive teams in baseball.  This would also directly improve the pitching.

The Tigers’starting rotation currently ranks 8^th in the AL in ERA at 4.21.  However, they rank #1 in FIP, 3.76, #1 in xFIP, 3.66, #2 in SIERA, 3.69 and #3 in tERA, 4.42.  The Tigers have a top 3 rotation in the AL according to these stats, but their defense is holding them back.  If they can change the negative fielding at 2B with the positive fielding of Darwin Barney, the pitching numbers will be closer to these defense independent pitching stats.  It would be a huge boost to the Tigers.

Now, Darwin Barney is a below average hitter, but an above average defender, making him about an average player overall.  Those players don’t fetch much in return, which would be good for the Tigers as they will be able to keep their top prospects, but bad for the Cubs as they would want to improve for the future.  Therefore, they will most likely want to package Barney with a better player to get a better return of prospects, most likely with Matt Garza. 

Matt Garza’s ERA is lower than Max Scherzer’s, Doug Fister’s, Rick Porcello’s and Drew Smyly’s.  However, he has the highest FIP of all those players, the 2^nd highest tERA after Fister and the 2^nd highest SIERA after Porcello.  Putting Garza up with the Tigers' defense doesn’t show a noticeable upgrade to whoever he would be replacing.  There is a possibility that Fister could see more time on the DL and Smyly’s innings could be limited, so upgrading with another starter wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Tigers to do.  However, they don’t have much in trade bait and the possibility of overpaying on someone that may not even be an upgrade is undesirable. 

However, if they can get Darwin Barney for a mid-level prospect, they should jump at the opportunity.