The Tigers Don’t Need Rafael Soriano

A few weeks ago, Dave Dombrowski said that the Tigers weren’t interested in Rafael Soriano to be the Tigers closer, praising prospect Bruce Rondon.  Recently, there have been reports that super-agent Scott Boras slyly bypassed Dombrowski and went straight to owner Mike Ilitch about the possibility of signing Soriano.  This isn’t the first time that Scott Boras has done this.  Just last year, the Tigers at first weren’t interested in signing Prince Fielder, until all of a sudden Ilitch approved a raise in payroll to make room for Fielder.  Boras seems to be doing the same thing this year with Soriano as the Tigers seem to be a perfect fit.  The Tigers have a need for a closer after Jose Valverde left via Free Agency, Ilitch is willing to spend money and the Tigers are in a “win now” mode, falling just short of a World Series title in 2012. 

The real question is, how much of an impact will Rafael Soriano really make?  He had a really good year for the Yankees last year, taking over for Mariano Rivera as their closer and pitching 62 2/3 innings, 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.18 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 3.32 FIP, 3.75 xFIP.  Last month, Collin made a post on the Tigers bullpen construction for next year and the potential is there to be really good.

2013 Bullpen Options:

Al Alburquerque – Only pitched 13 1/3 innings in 2012, but over his 2-year career, he has 56 2/3 innings with a 1.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 13.50 K/9, 5.88 BB/9, 2.11 FIP, 2.82 xFIP.  However, he’s an injury concern.

Brayan Villarreal – He did awful in 2011 with a 6.75 ERA in 16 IP, but had a decent year in 2012: 54 2/3 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.87 K/9, 4.61 BB/9, 2.98 FIP, 3.96 xFIP.

Bruce Rondon – 53 IP, 1.53 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 in 3 levels for the Tigers’ minor leagues in 2012.  Lack of experience is a concern.

Octavio Dotel – 58 IP, 3.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 2.30 FIP, 3.22 xFIP.  Has closing experience, saving 22 games as recently as 2010. 

Joaquin Benoit – 71 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 10.65 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 4.26 FIP, 3.29 xFIP in 2012.

Phil Coke – 54 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 8.50 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 3.47 FIP, 3.65 xFIP in 2012.

Those are 6 of the 7 spots that will be filled.  Other pitchers that could see some time with the Tigers next year are Duane Below (3.92 ERA in 43 2/3 IP in 2012), Darin Downs (3.48 ERA in 20 2/3 IP in 2012), Luis Marte (2.82 ERA in 22 1/3 IP in 2012), Adam Wilk (2.77 ERA in 24 starts in AAA in 2012), Casey Crosby, Andrew Oliver and Luke Putkonen.  Some are better options than others and as the old saying goes, you can’t have enough pitching.

The Tigers do lack some experience and depth but there is more than one solution to this problem.  Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson are both coming off of Tommy John Surgery and will likely only command a 1-year deal to reestablish their value.  Both might be out until May, so that will give the Tigers some time to see if one of their internal options are capable of closer duties.  If the Tigers are still struggling in the 9th, then they’ll have someone waiting with closing experience.

This approach would be similar to the Tigers second base problem of last year.  There was a glaring hole at 2B and instead of addressing it, the Tigers chose to go with Ryan Raburn and Brandon Inge.  Neither one worked out and the Tigers had to make a trade for Omar Infante.  If the Tigers still have a need for a closer mid-season, then they could still get one at the trading deadline. 

This isn’t a money situation; Ilitch has the money and is willing to spend it.  This is how much impact Soriano will have on the Tigers.  And the answer is likely not much.  Several studies have been done on the impact of closers, one done by David Smith at Retrosheet took 73 years of data and found that teams won after having the lead after 8 innings 95% of the time, no matter who was pitching the 9^th inning.  The Tigers have 4 relievers with closer potential in Alburquerque, Dotel, Rondon and Villarreal, so the likelihood that they already have pitcher capable of closing next year is very high.

We all saw firsthand how a reliable closer can turn bad when Jose Valverde fell apart in the playoffs.  Rafael Soriano is looking for a 3-year deal.  If he suffers from any struggles, it’ll be hard to replace him after all the money they committed to him, as opposed to someone internally (say Rondon wins the closer's job out of Spring Training.  If he struggles, replacing him with Al Alburquerque wouldn't be a problem).  Also, an unlikely closer emerged in Phil Coke when he took over closing duties in one of the highest pressured situations, the playoffs against the Yankees.  After the year that Coke had during the regular season, no one would’ve thought that he would be able to close games, let alone in the playoffs.  All the left-handers in the Yankees lineup helped, though, as Coke is much better against lefties than righties, which could also prove that the best way to handle the 9^th inning is by situations instead of having one designated closer.

It’s not that Soriano would be a bad signing.  In fact, he’d probably be a really good closer for the Tigers.  However, it’s likely the Tigers already have a really good closer and therefore adding Soriano wouldn’t have a huge impact to the Tigers.  

Update: I must've missed it, the Angels have signed Ryan Madson.

2013 Bullpen Construction

After a disappointing performance in the post season and with the underperformance of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit’s struggles with home runs, the Tigers bullpen is flux next season.  Despite the uncertainty, the potential for an above average bullpen is there.  With young, high potential arms such as Brayan Villarreal, Al Alburquerque, and Bruce Rondon in the system and experienced, proven arms in Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, and Joaquin Benoit, the future looks bright.  So who will be pitching high leverage innings next season?

Brayan Villarreal looked like a dominant late innings reliever up until September, when he struggled to the tune of a 6.75 K/9, 8.68 BB/9, and a FIP of 6.20.  The reason for his struggles is unknown at this point but he pitched only 9.1 innings so small sample size caveats apply.  A reasonable explanation, though unfounded, is that he tired.  It was his first full season in the major leagues and the minor league season doesn’t last until September.  This could explain why he was left off the playoff roster.  Despite his late season struggles, he still produced an outstanding season line of 10.19 K/9, 4.84 BB/9, and a 2.98 FIP.  While he could stand to reduce his walks, his stuff is well above average allowing him to get away with a below average walk rate.  Look for him to see plenty of high pressure situations in 2013.

The next big armed reliever in the Tigers pen is Al Albuquerque.  Despite missing most of the season due to injury, he has been absolutely dominant in his time with the Tigers due to his overwhelming stuff.  Featuring an explosive fastball and an incredible slider, he posted a 13.92 K/9 and a 2.08 FIP last season.  He spent most of this season on the disabled list with elbow problems, but in a limited sample size of 13.1 innings this season, he posted in a 12.15 K/9 and a 2.19 FIP.  He has similar issues to Villarreal in that he struggles with high walk rates but his stuff is possibly better than Villarreal’s, putting him in prime position to be a dominant end game closer in 2013.

The last potential youngster to pitch high leverage innings is Bruce Rondon, the Tigers minor league pitcher of the year.  He features an 80 grade fastball with 80 movement that is one of the best anywhere in the game.   To accompany his fastball, he has a slider that flashes above average potential and a future average change up.  In fact, he has stuff of a potential number two starter he just doesn’t have the control or body type to deal with 200+ innings a year.  Despite control issues, he did manage to lower his BB/9 from 7.65 in 2010 to a 3.86 in 2011 and 3.74 this year (not including 8 innings in AAA with a 7.88 BB/9).  As long as the control improvement is legitimate (likely), he profiles as our best reliever within the next few years and one of the best in all of baseball.  Despite this potential, he most likely will be eased into the roll, pitching in the 6^th and 7^th innings and lower leverage scenarios.

One interesting name to watch in the minors is Andy Oliver.  He almost assuredly won’t see any high or even medium leverage situations due to his high walk rate and relative lack of experience in the majors but his stuff is very good and if he had even average control, he would profile as a mid-rotation starter.  After moving to the bullpen, he tightened up his control enough to have potential as an end game reliever.  He probably needs at least a half season in AAA to get used to coming out of the bullpen, but he has a chance to salvage his career from there and could be an interesting midseason call up.

As for the experienced guys, Benoit is clearly our best reliever despite a down second half.  Reliever numbers suffer from small sample size issues since they rarely hit 100 innings in a season so his HR/9 of 1.77 is not worry and is very likely to regress towards his career number of 1.17.  Benoit is an interesting picture since he has a reverse platoon split, holding LH hitters to a .300 wOBA against a .319 for RH hitters.  This is due to his devastating changeup which is easily his best pitch.  He is a proven high leverage reliever who will definitely be getting similar innings next year.

Phil Coke has had quite a season.  He went from much maligned “lefty specialist” to shutdown closer against the Yankees.  Despite his solid playoffs, Coke had a worrying year overall.  Despite being very solid against lefties, holding them to a .298 wOBA he was absolutely crushed by righties to the tune of a .441 wOBA.  Essentially, he turned righties into Joey Votto this year.  This could very easily be a small sample size issue since his career splits aren’t nearly as bad (.347 to righties, .276 to lefties).  In all honesty, unless the Tigers bring in a true LOOGY, he will likely be the lefty specialist and medium leverage situations.

Despite the uncertainty, the bullpen issues seem fairly easy to resolve internally.  With the future coming soon in Bruce Rondon, they shouldn’t look for a long term answer at closer but a stop gap instead.  If a traditional closer is not found, Leyland should have no issue piecing together the list three innings of games between all of the talent they have in the bullpen, young and old.