Tuesday, March 17, 2015

2015 Top 20 Tigers Prospects

There has been a big overhaul of prospects from 1 year ago.  Traded away are Willy Adames, Devon Travis, Robbie Ray, Jake Thompson, Jonathon Crawford, Corey Knebel, Eugenio Suarez and Domingo Leyba for Big League talent for what may be a final strong push at a World Series Title.  Nick Castellanos has also been promoted, so he's no longer a prospect.  Steven Moya had a big year in 2014, so his stock has risen.  Derek Hill has since been drafted, so he's on the list now.  After that, we have to dig deeper into the system then a year ago, which results in a very thin system.  The Tigers probably have the weakest system in the Majors right now, but who cares as long as we're contending?  

I'm no expert, so I get my information from several different places, including:

Bless You Boys
Baseball America
Minor League Ball
FanGraphs
MLB.com
Razzball
Top Prospect Alert
Prospect 361


1. Steven Moya
Position: OF
Age: 23
2014 Stats


Level PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K% wRC+
AA
549
0.276
0.306
0.555
35
16
4.2%
29.3%
131
MLB
8
0.375
0.375
0.375
0
0
0.0%
25.0%
113

ETA: 2016
2015 Expected Level: AAA Toledo

Notes: Steven Moya was signed by the Tigers as an amateur free agent in 2008.  His stats in the minors were unimpressive until 2014, when he hit 35 home runs in Double-A.  He skipped AAA and made it to the big leagues as a September call-up.  He earned two big awards during 2014, the Eastern League All-Star Game MVP (after hitting a grand slam) and the 2014 Eastern League MVP, the first Seawolves player to be named league MVP since they entered that league in 1999.  Moya's weakness is too many strikeouts and a lack of walks.  His ceiling is high (Adam Jones is probably the best comparison) but due to these weaknesses, his floor is low, which could result in a AAAA player.   

2. Derek Hill
Position: OF
Age: 19
2014 Stats:


Level PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K% wRC+
R
119
0.212
0.331
0.333
2
9
13.4%
16.0%
99
A-
78
0.203
0.244
0.243
0
2
2.6%
33.3%
45

ETA
: 2018/2019
2015 Expected Level: A West Michigan

Notes: Derek Hill was drafted by the Tigers in the first round of 2014 (23rd overall).  Hill struggled in his first year of professional baseball, which supposedly  was due to a back injury.  He has 2 great skills, plus, plus speed and plus defense, which should keep him in centerfield.  While he didn't hit all too well, most experts agree that he has good raw hitting tools, but whether he'll be able to develop them as he advances through the system still remains to be seen. Hill's walk rate while in rookie ball is encouraging, though.  There's some comparison to Cameron Maybin, which may or may not be a good thing.  
Position: SP/RP
Age: 24
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
A
103 2/3
10-5
2.60
1.11
10.1
2.1
2.78
AA
12
1-0
3.00
1.17
8.3
3.0
3.60
AAA
7 1/3
1-1
9.82
2.05
2.5
4.9
6.22
MLB
9 1/3
0-1
11.57
1.82
10.6
4.9
5.81

ETA
: 2016
2015 Expected Level: AAA Toledo

Notes: Buck Farmer was drafted by the Tigers in the 5th round in 2013.  He impressed enough to earn a couple of starts with the Tigers down the stretch and was called up again as a September call-up to work out of the bullpen.  While his numbers in A-Ball were overall impressive, he didn't fare too well in the higher leagues.  He is being considered for a bullpen role for the Tigers in 2015.  If he doesn't win a spot in the Tigers bullpen out of Spring Training, he could either go the rotation in AAA to stay stretched out or stay in the bullpen in AAA for when the Tigers need another reliever.  His ceiling is that of a #4 starter, although the bullpen may better suit him in he can't further develop his slider and changeup.  His fastball remains a top pitch, reaching 96 MPH at times.  
Position: SP
Age: 23
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
A
123
10-6
2.27
1.15
11.1
3.9
2.98

ETA
: 2017
2015 Expected Level: AA Erie

Notes: Kevin Ziomek was drafted by the Tigers in the 2nd round in 2013.  He throws a fastball around 90 MPH, a slider and a changeup.  His ceiling is that of a #4 starter, but being a lefty, he'll get plenty of chances and might make it as a reliever.  There's been some comparisons to Drew Smyly .  
Position: SP
Age: 23
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
A
131   
10-2
2.34
1.08
9.6
3.0
2.99

ETA
: 2017
2015 Expected Level: AA Erie

Notes:  Austin Kubitza was drafted in the 4th round of the 2013 draft.  He has a very good sinker/slider combination that gets a lot of strikeouts and induces a ton of ground balls.  He probably has a better chance of making it as a starter than Ziomek, but some scouts believe he is better suited for the bullpen.    
Position: OF
Age: 25
2014 Stats


Level PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K% wRC+
AAA
526
0.263
0.335
0.423
18
12
9.3%
22.1%
108
MLB
25
0.250
0.280
0.375
1
0
4.0%
16.0%
83

ETA
: 2015
2015 Expected Level: MLB Tigers

Notes: Tyler Collins was drafted by the Tigers in the 6th round of the 2011 draft and made the Tigers' opening day roster out of Spring Training in 2014.  But he was over-matched and spent the majority of the season in AAA before coming back as a September call-up.  He'll compete for a bench spot but even if he doesn't make the roster out of Spring Training, he should see significant time at the MLB level (he'll be one of the first ones up in case of an injury).  As a lefty power bat, there's been some comparisons to Matt Joyce .   
Position: C
Age: 25
2014 Stats


Level PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K% wRC+
AAA
460
0.295
0.343
0.427
7
9
5.4%
19.6%
112
MLB
12
0.250
0.250
0.333
0
1
0.0%
16.7%
58

ETA
: 2015
2015 Expected Level: MLB Tigers

Notes:  James McCann was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft and made the majors in 2014 as a September call-up.  McCann has always shown great defense, but has made good strides with the bat the last 2 years in AA and AAA.  McCann is going to compete with Bryan Holaday for the back-up catcher job and is expected to beat him out due to his defense and righty bat that will complement Alex Avila's lefty bat.  With his defense, he should be a mainstay in the majors as a back-up, however if he continues to improve with the bat, he could be a decent starter.  
Position: INF
Age: 24
2014 Stats


Level PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K% wRC+
AAA
596
0.287
0.331
0.404
6
21
6.0%
10.9%
102
MLB
6
0.200
0.333
0.200
0
0
16.7%
16.7%
63

ETA
: 2015
2015 Expected Level: MLB Tigers

Notes:  Hernan Perez was signed as an international free agent in 2007.  It seems like he's been around forever, but he's still considered a prospect.  He will compete for a bench role and is expected to win one with the health issues of Jose Iglesias and as a defensive replacement for Nick Castellanos.  His defense and versatility should make him a good utility player for years.  Offensively, he has some speed with little to no power.  Personally, he screams Ramon Santiago 2.0.  
Position: C
Age: 22
2014 Stats:  


Level PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K% wRC+
A
104
0.322
0.394
0.444
2
0
10.6%
17.3%
140

ETA
: 2018
2015 Expected Level: A+ Lakeland

Notes: Grayson Greiner was drafted by the Tigers in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft.  He his highly regarded as being a good defensive catcher despite his large frame, 6-foot, 6 inches, which also causes him to have a slow release.  His offense was decent in his first year of profession baseball and will ultimately determine his fate if he can't stay as a catcher due to his height.  
Position: SP/RP
Age: 24
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
AAA
110 1/3
6-7
3.67
1.29
5.1
2.0
3.70
MLB
5
0-1
5.40
1.60
7.2
5.4
3.33

ETA
: 2016 
2015 Expected Level: AAA Toledo

Notes:  Drew VerHagen was drafted by the Tigers in the 4th round in 2012 and made his Major League debut early with one start in 2014.  He throws a sinking fastball, a curveball and changeup.  He has the potential to be an innings eater in the back of the rotation or, if his secondary pitches don't improve enough, he'll end up as a reliever.  
Position: 2B/SS
Age: 20
2014 Stats


Level PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K% wRC+
A
612
0.269
0.307
0.344
6
9
4.2%
13.2%
87


ETA: 2017
2015 Expected Level: A+ Lakeland

Notes:  Being one of the youngest players at A-Ball, his skills look better than his stats.  His swing is geared to hit line drives rather than home runs, so he'll hit for average as oppose for power.  His low walk rate is a concern.  Defensively, he was moved from SS and played mostly 2B in 2014.  With the trade of Willy Adames, it's likely Betancourt will get moved back to SS.  Ultimately, he may end up at 3B.  
Position: RP
Age: 20
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
A-
26 2/3
3-2
2.70
1.05
13.8
2.0
1.75

ETA
: 2017
2015 Expected Level: A+ Lakeland

Notes: Joe Jimenez was signed as a rare non-drafted free agent in 2013.  He throws an overpowering fastball in the mid to upper 90s that can reach triple digits at times, which allows him to get a ton of strikeouts.  He also throws a slider, which he'll have to command better if he is to make it to the Majors.  
Position: SP
Age: 22
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
R
3   
0-0
3.00
1.00
12.0
3.0
6.17
A-
28 1/3
0-2
4.45
1.59
6.0
4.5
4.15

ETA
: 2017
2015 Expected Level: A West Michigan

Notes: Spencer Turnbull was drafted by the Tigers in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft.  Turnbull has a mid-90s fastball that tops out at around 98 MPH. His secondary pitches consists of a 2-seamer, a potential above average curveball, a slider/cutter and a developing changeup.  He has shown poor command and control due to his delivery, which needs a lot of work.  He has shown promise but needs to improve in a lot of areas if he is ever going to make it to the majors.  

Position: SP
Age: 24
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
A
130 1/3
6-4
3.11
1.14
8.6
1.9
3.08

ETA
: 2017
2015 Expected Level: A+ Lakeland

Notes: Chad Green was drafted by the Tigers in the 11th round of the 2011 draft.  Green has shown a good fastball in the low-90s.  However, his secondary pitches of a slider and changeup are below average and will have to improve if he is to make it as a starter.  

Position: SS
Age: 23
2014 Stats


Level PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K% wRC+
A+
187
0.252
0.348
0.333
1
2
12.3%
18.2%
101
AA
342
0.305
0.391
0.442
5
8
11.7%
10.5%
135

ETA
: 2016
2015 Expected Level: AAA Toledo

Notes: Dixon Machado's development was probably the reason the Tigers traded away a bunch of middle infielders during the past calendar year (Adames, Travis, Leyba and Suarez).  Machado has always been a great defensive shortstop, but he turned it up offensively in AA in 2014.  His OPS in AA was over 200 points better than his career minor league OPS, so it'll be interesting if he can keep it up or if 2014 was a fluke.  If Iglesias has a setback and Perez and Andrew Romine don't impress, Machado could make his Major League debut this year.  

Position: SP/RP
Age: 25
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
AAA
146   
9-11
4.07
1.48
7.8
2.6
3.45
MLB
39 1/3
1-2
4.35
1.25
6.2
3.2
3.82

ETA
: 2015
2015 Expected Level: AAA Toledo

Notes: Kyle Lobsein was drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 2nd round in 2008 and purchased by the Tigers in 2012.  Lobstein made his Major League debut in 2014, starting 6 games and pitching out of relief in 1 of them.  He didn't embarrass himself, eating up innings when the Tigers needed them, throwing a variety of pitches, 4-seam fastball, sinker, slider changeup and curveball.  His ceiling isn't much higher than what he gave in 2014, 5th starter, likely to end up in the bullpen, possibly as soon as this year.  Tigers might want to keep him stretched out in AAA, though, due to lack of starting pitching depth.
Position: RP
Age: 25
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
AA
57   
2-3
4.11
1.44
10.4
4.1
3.83

ETA
: 2016
2015 Expected Level: AAA Toledo

Notes: Jose Valdez has primarily been a closer in the minors, saving 33 games in 2013 and another 18 in 2014.  He has a mid to high-90s fastball that can reach triple digits at times and a nice slider.  He has command issues that results in a high walk rate and a high WHIP.  He could potentially see some time in the Majors this year if the Tigers bullpen troubles continue.  
Position: RP
Age: 24
2014 Stats


Level
IP
W/L
ERA
WHIP
K/9
BB/9
FIP
A+
34 1/3
2-0
0.79
0.90
9.4
2.1
1.99
AA
32 1/3
1-0
2.23
1.08
10.0
4.2
3.82

ETA
: 2015
2015 Expected Level: AAA Toledo

Notes: Angel Nesbitt is very similar to Valdez, hard throwing 90s fastball with a slider and a changeup.  Nesbitt is seriously going to be considered for a bullpen role out of Spring Training, but most likely will start the year in AAA and get sporadic call-ups if his numbers continue to impress.   

19. Kyle Ryan
Position: SP/RP
Age: 23
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
AA
126 2/3
7-10
4.55
1.36
5.5
2.3
4.44
AAA
33   
3-0
1.64
0.79
5.5
1.4
2.60
MLB
10 1/3
2-0
2.61
1.16
3.5
1.7
2.94

ETA
: 2016
2015 Expected Level: AAA Toledo

Notes: Kyle Ryan was drafted by the Tigers in the 12th round of the 2010 draft and made his major league debut in 2014.  When the Tigers needed another starter, they turned to Ryan and he surprised with 6 shutout innings.  He made 5 more appearances, this time in relief and didn't allow an ER until he final appearance.  He probably is better suited for the bullpen and will get plenty of opportunity being a left-handed pitcher.  Could surprise again and see significant action in the Tigers bullpen this year.  
Position: SP
Age: 23
2014 Stats


Level IP W/L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP
A+
16   
0-0
3.38
1.19
3.9
1.7
3.89

ETA
: 2017
2015 Expected Level: A+ Lakeland 

Notes:  Endrys Briceno only started 3 games in 2014 before he had to have Tommy John surgery and won't return until about half-way through the 2015 season.  He has a plus fastball, but needs to refine his secondary pitches if he's to stay as a starter.  He also has command and control issues.

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