2015 Preseason Prediction #14 - Alfredo Simon

When the Tigers traded Rick Porcello, they were a starting pitcher short in their rotation.  Soon after, they traded Eugenio Suarez and Jonathon Crawford to the Reds for Alfredo Simon.  The reaction for the most part among Tiger fans was unfavorable, and it's easy to see why:

2014	ERA	WHIP	BB%	K%	FIP	SIERA	LOB%
1st Half	2.70	1.05	6.0%	16.0%	4.33	3.98	85.1%
2nd Half	4.52	1.44	8.1%	14.9%	4.34	4.42	69.6%

2014	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB%
1st Half	0.232	20.2%	49.3%	30.5%	13.1%
2nd Half	0.309	22.2%	46.7%	31.1%	10.0%

Simon had a great first half ERA and was awarded his first All-Star game appearance.  However, his ERA estimators and unsustainable stranded runners rate foreshadowed a second half collapse.  His walk rate also rose while his strikeout rate declined.  

Some fans speculate that he was tiring out in the 2nd half and that contributed to his poor numbers as he has never pitched as many innings as he did in 2014.  That very well may be true.  However, Simon was primarily a reliever from his rookie year in 2008 until 2013, starting only 19 games and pitching 158 games in relief.  Then injuries to the Reds' starting pitching forced them to put Simon in the rotation in 2014.  The problem here is that rarely do you see a reliever put in the rotation as late in his career as Simon was.  The only pitcher I could think of that was primarily a reliever until his early 30s, then moved to the rotation and had a decent career as a starter was Charlie Hough.  And unless Simon has suddenly developed a knuckleball, that isn't a perfect comparison.    

Suffice to say, I'm not predicting a good year from Alfredo Simon this year. When factoring in normal age regression (he's entering his age 34 season) and the switch from the National League to the American League (he now has to face the DH instead of pitchers), it doesn't look pretty.  I think Simon will struggle so bad that the Tigers will be forced to remove him from the rotation and use him out of the bullpen, replaced by either a trade or one of the prospects from AAA.  Simon has proven to be much better in relief than starting and none of his starting numbers from 2014 has changed my view.  

2011-2014	ERA	FIP	SIERA	K%	BB%
As a Starter	3.93	4.42	4.22	15.8%	7.3%
As a Reliever	3.02	3.64	3.68	18.3%	7.6%

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	143	8-10	4.84	1.42	84	46
CAIRO	137	10-6	3.88	1.18	97	41
ZiPS	152 2/3	9-9	4.60	1.41	94	47
RotoChamp	170	11-9	4.13	1.19	114	49
CBS Sports	190	9-12	3.93	1.32	127	57
ESPN	161	9 W	4.08	1.27	99	43
MLB.com	171	10-12	4.21	1.35	101	55
FanGraphs' Fans (16)	161	10-9	4.00	1.32	105	48

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	196 1/3	15-10	3.44	1.207	127	56
2015 Prediction	140 2/3	6-9	4.93	1.443	92	49

Fantasy Impact: Alfredo Simon has two things going against him when I look for fantasy starting pitchers: he's over the age of 30 and he has low strikeouts.  Ignore him on draft day; draft young AAA prospects on the verge of making to the big leagues that have big strikeout potential instead.