The Tigers Don’t Need Rafael Soriano

A few weeks ago, Dave Dombrowski said that the Tigers weren’t interested in Rafael Soriano to be the Tigers closer, praising prospect Bruce Rondon.  Recently, there have been reports that super-agent Scott Boras slyly bypassed Dombrowski and went straight to owner Mike Ilitch about the possibility of signing Soriano.  This isn’t the first time that Scott Boras has done this.  Just last year, the Tigers at first weren’t interested in signing Prince Fielder, until all of a sudden Ilitch approved a raise in payroll to make room for Fielder.  Boras seems to be doing the same thing this year with Soriano as the Tigers seem to be a perfect fit.  The Tigers have a need for a closer after Jose Valverde left via Free Agency, Ilitch is willing to spend money and the Tigers are in a “win now” mode, falling just short of a World Series title in 2012. 

The real question is, how much of an impact will Rafael Soriano really make?  He had a really good year for the Yankees last year, taking over for Mariano Rivera as their closer and pitching 62 2/3 innings, 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.18 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 3.32 FIP, 3.75 xFIP.  Last month, Collin made a post on the Tigers bullpen construction for next year and the potential is there to be really good.

2013 Bullpen Options:

Al Alburquerque – Only pitched 13 1/3 innings in 2012, but over his 2-year career, he has 56 2/3 innings with a 1.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 13.50 K/9, 5.88 BB/9, 2.11 FIP, 2.82 xFIP.  However, he’s an injury concern.

Brayan Villarreal – He did awful in 2011 with a 6.75 ERA in 16 IP, but had a decent year in 2012: 54 2/3 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.87 K/9, 4.61 BB/9, 2.98 FIP, 3.96 xFIP.

Bruce Rondon – 53 IP, 1.53 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 in 3 levels for the Tigers’ minor leagues in 2012.  Lack of experience is a concern.

Octavio Dotel – 58 IP, 3.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 2.30 FIP, 3.22 xFIP.  Has closing experience, saving 22 games as recently as 2010. 

Joaquin Benoit – 71 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 10.65 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 4.26 FIP, 3.29 xFIP in 2012.

Phil Coke – 54 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 8.50 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 3.47 FIP, 3.65 xFIP in 2012.

Those are 6 of the 7 spots that will be filled.  Other pitchers that could see some time with the Tigers next year are Duane Below (3.92 ERA in 43 2/3 IP in 2012), Darin Downs (3.48 ERA in 20 2/3 IP in 2012), Luis Marte (2.82 ERA in 22 1/3 IP in 2012), Adam Wilk (2.77 ERA in 24 starts in AAA in 2012), Casey Crosby, Andrew Oliver and Luke Putkonen.  Some are better options than others and as the old saying goes, you can’t have enough pitching.

The Tigers do lack some experience and depth but there is more than one solution to this problem.  Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson are both coming off of Tommy John Surgery and will likely only command a 1-year deal to reestablish their value.  Both might be out until May, so that will give the Tigers some time to see if one of their internal options are capable of closer duties.  If the Tigers are still struggling in the 9th, then they’ll have someone waiting with closing experience.

This approach would be similar to the Tigers second base problem of last year.  There was a glaring hole at 2B and instead of addressing it, the Tigers chose to go with Ryan Raburn and Brandon Inge.  Neither one worked out and the Tigers had to make a trade for Omar Infante.  If the Tigers still have a need for a closer mid-season, then they could still get one at the trading deadline. 

This isn’t a money situation; Ilitch has the money and is willing to spend it.  This is how much impact Soriano will have on the Tigers.  And the answer is likely not much.  Several studies have been done on the impact of closers, one done by David Smith at Retrosheet took 73 years of data and found that teams won after having the lead after 8 innings 95% of the time, no matter who was pitching the 9^th inning.  The Tigers have 4 relievers with closer potential in Alburquerque, Dotel, Rondon and Villarreal, so the likelihood that they already have pitcher capable of closing next year is very high.

We all saw firsthand how a reliable closer can turn bad when Jose Valverde fell apart in the playoffs.  Rafael Soriano is looking for a 3-year deal.  If he suffers from any struggles, it’ll be hard to replace him after all the money they committed to him, as opposed to someone internally (say Rondon wins the closer's job out of Spring Training.  If he struggles, replacing him with Al Alburquerque wouldn't be a problem).  Also, an unlikely closer emerged in Phil Coke when he took over closing duties in one of the highest pressured situations, the playoffs against the Yankees.  After the year that Coke had during the regular season, no one would’ve thought that he would be able to close games, let alone in the playoffs.  All the left-handers in the Yankees lineup helped, though, as Coke is much better against lefties than righties, which could also prove that the best way to handle the 9^th inning is by situations instead of having one designated closer.

It’s not that Soriano would be a bad signing.  In fact, he’d probably be a really good closer for the Tigers.  However, it’s likely the Tigers already have a really good closer and therefore adding Soriano wouldn’t have a huge impact to the Tigers.  

Update: I must've missed it, the Angels have signed Ryan Madson.

The Closer’s Role Isn’t Hard

Granted it isn’t easy either.  The 9^th inning is a pressure-filled situation and not any bum from AAA  can fill it.  However, the perception that it must be filled with a steely-eyed tough-man mentality guy and that those guys are a rare breed is wrong.  There are many relievers in the majors able to pitch the 9^th inning with a lead, including our very own Phil Coke.  Last night when Jose Valverde got injured while warming up, Coke entered a 6-3 game in the 9^th inning and set down the Cardinals 1-2-3 without breaking a sweat.

The 2012 season has many examples of closers getting replaced due to either injury or ineffectiveness and the replacements weren’t that hard to find, where a majority of them did an adequate job.  By my count 16 teams have replaced their closer at least once at some point during the year; only Jim Johnson, Fernando Rodney, Chris Perez, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps, Joe Nathan, Frank Francisco, Jon Papelbon, Craig Kimbrel, Jason Motte, Brett Myers, John Axford, J.J. Putz and Rafael Betancourt have been officially remained the closer for their team the whole season thus far (if I’m wrong, correct me in the comments).  The Tigers’ Jose Valverde wasn’t officially on the DL, but was day-to-day for 10 days.  During that span, Octavio Dotel and Joaquin Benoit picked up a save each with no blown saves.  Now that it looks like Valverde will miss more time, I have full confidence in either Dotel or Benoit as the acting closer.

The biggest injury among closers this year would probably have to be Mariano Rivera, the best closer in the history of the game.  This sounds like a tough job to take over, no?  Since taking over closing duties, Rafael Soriano has saved 13 games in 14 opportunities and recorded a 1.35 ERA.  Although it does help to have closing experience.  Fernando Rodney (20 saves, 1.10 ERA) and Jonathan Broxton (17 saves, 1.63 ERA) have been full-time closers before and when Kyle Farnsworth and Joakim Soria suffered injuries, it was easy to give them the closer’s role.

It’s not just the veteran’s that have experience that can go back to that role either.  Aroldis Chapman had 1 save before taking over closing from injured Sean Marshall and has 8 saves with a 1.57 ERA this year.  Addison Reed had no closing experience before this year and has 8 saves with a 4.37 ERA. Ernesto Frieri also had no closing experience and since being picked up by the Angels, has 7 saves with a 0.00 (!) ERA. 

Altogether, there have been 41 players to record at least 30 saves since 2009.  That doesn’t sound like an elite club to me.  So besides injury and retirement, why all the closing changes?  Sure, ineffectiveness is one reason.  But for example, why did the Yankees sign Rafael Soriano to “only” be a setup man?  He had just saved a league-leading 45 games with the Rays the year before.  Surely, he could continue to be a closer.  Well, one reason is certainly insurance in case Mariano Rivera did get injured (and he did).  But a big reason had to be that the 9^th inning isn’t the only pressure-filled situation.  Think about the scenario in the 7^th inning where the starter has gone tired and loaded the bases with less than 2 outs in a 1-run game.  That sounds like a pressure-filled situation to be.  Think of all the times Mike Adams, who only has 2 saves in his career, has been put in that situation and has a career 2.18 ERA (success!).  If he can handle the pressure in that situation, certainly he can handle the pressure situation in the 9^th inning.  Pressure situations are pressure situations, right?  The Rangers know how valuable he is as a setup man, which is why they haven’t converted him to a closer.  However, if Joe Nathan has to go on the DL, the Rangers should be perfectly fine with Mike Adams as their closer.

No, not just anyone can be a closer.  However, there are several capable relievers out there that can fill the role.  In fact, most successful major league relievers should have no problem closing.  This isn’t some rare role that only a select few can do.