Saturday, August 2, 2014

So You Need a New "My Tiger"

On Thursday Dombrowski traded an average centerfielder, an average starting pitcher and an eighteen year old prospect for an ace starting pitcher.  Yep, Dombrowski traded 2 average players and a maybe somebody for ace #3 on the Tigers' staff.  Usually whenever a trade is made, the winner is the team that gets the best player.  Example #1: Miguel Cabrera.  In this case, the Tigers got the best player, therefore the Tigers are winners of this trade.  

The prospect in this case is Willy Adames, someone who the casual fan probably didn't even know existed until the trade.  Not only that, but he was probably one of the top 3 prospects left in the Tigers organization.  (By the way, how bad is the Tigers' farm system if one of their top prospects isn't even on most Tiger fans' radar?).  

The average players in this trade are Austin Jackson and Drew Smyly.  The ace pitcher, or as I will call him, "Dombrowski Steal #47" (approx.) is David Price.  Now David Price is one of the best starting pitchers in the league...uh, wait a minute.  Back up.  The Tigers got rid of Austin Jackson?



Yeah, that about sums up the Tigers' fan reaction of the trade.  I could go on and tell you just how good David Price is (just go to FanGraphs, his stats speak for themselves).  Or I could tackle the real issue here: how in the world are you going to find a replacement for your favorite Tiger?  Just click here, here and here to see how much Jackson will be missed.  Or here.  Or here.  Or here.  Or here.    Heck, you probably wrote something yourself, either on your own blog, a message board, a comment to an article or a small Twitter or Facebook response on how much Jackson was "your Tiger."  




Just take a look at Jackson's stats:


Year wOBA wRC+ BB% K% LD%
2010
0.299
81
10.8%
21.3%
21.5%
2011
0.384
140
13.2%
23.8%
21.7%
2012
0.327
103
14.1%
24.0%
23.8%
2013
0.319
91
11.6%
29.6%
28.0%
2014
0.308
91
12.8%
33.1%
25.6%
Total
0.334
107
12.7%
25.9%
23.4%

Oh, no wait.  Those aren't Jackson's stats.  My bad.  Here are Jackson's stats:

Year wOBA wRC+ BB% K% LD%
2010
0.329
101
7.0%
25.2%
24.2%
2011
0.305
87
8.4%
27.1%
16.8%
2012
0.371
134
10.9%
21.7%
23.8%
2013
0.332
107
8.5%
21.0%
27.6%
2014
0.321
100
8.5%
20.5%
24.8%
Total
0.332
106
8.6%
23.4%
23.4%

They do look pretty similar, so you can see my confusion.  Career-wise, they look almost identical.  Only a 0.002 difference in wOBA, 1 point difference in wRC+.  Identical LD%.  One career year, while the rest were just plain mediocre.  Hold on!  I have an idea!  Why not make your next Tiger someone who has very similar stats to your old Tiger?  

The first table shows the stats of Alex Avila.  Yep, Mr. Nepotism himself has had a career oddly similar to your favorite Tiger.  Ok, so it's not identical.  I creatively left out some stats like batting average and stolen bases.  But I did leave in the more important stats (y'know, the ones that tell just how good a player really is).  What about defense?  The numbers and eye test also shows that Avila is above average, just like Jackson.  

Alex Avila is already one of "my Tigers."  He has been for quite awhile.  So why not join me?  Clearly, he already has the stats for it.  

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