Thursday, July 18, 2013

Miguel Cabrera and 1st Half Stats

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Miguel Cabrera is following up his Triple Crown MVP season with another terrific season.  He is hitting .365/.458/.674/1.132 with 30 HR, 95 RBI and a 201 OPS+.  If he stays on pace, his AVG would rank 25th, his OBP would rank 10th, his SLG would rank 2nd, his OPS would rank 2nd and his OPS+ would rank 3rd on the Tigers' single-season leader board.  He is also on pace to hit 52 HR and have 164 RBI, which would would rank him 2nd and 3rd respectively.  He may not be on pace to have the best season ever as a Tiger, but he is among the leaders.

 How likely is he to keep up this pace?  Two projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, both think that Cabrera will fall off a little.  Here is what they'll predicting for the rest of the season:
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
ZiPS (ROS)
287
0.329
0.415
0.596
1.011
17
53
Steamer (ROS)
282
0.327
0.414
0.596
1.010
16
51

And therefore, his full season stats are projected to be:

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
ZiPS (U)
715
0.350
0.441
0.642
1.083
47
148
Steamer (U)
710
0.349
0.441
0.643
1.083
46
146

Which would put him a bit below in the rankings on the lead board.  However, his first half stats are in the books and can't be taken away.  So, how does Cabrera's stats rank with other Tiger players' first half stats?  Note: I put an arbitrary 300 PA minimum for the rate stats.  Before the All-Star Game started in 1933, they use dates to determine the halfway point, which puts it around the 77-game mark and that is lower than the 94-game mark that happened this year.  Also, Baseball-reference only goes back to 1916 for this split.  

Home Runs:

Player Split Year G HR PA
Miguel Cabrera 1st Half 2013 93 30 428
Cecil Fielder 1st Half 1990 84 28 356
Hank Greenberg 1st Half 1935 76 25 360
Mickey Tettleton 1st Half 1993 83 24 349
Norm Cash 1st Half 1961 86 24 362
Generated 7/18/2013.

Cabrera takes over the #1 spot among Tiger players.  Hank Greenberg's record of 58 set in 1938 isn't even in the top 5, when he hit 22 HR in the first half and an incredible 36 in the 2nd half.  

 RBI:

Player Split Year G RBI PA
Hank Greenberg 1st Half 1935 76 103 360
Miguel Cabrera 1st Half 2013 93 95 428
Harry Heilmann 1st Half 1921 77 82 346
Vic Wertz 1st Half 1949 81 80 369
Cecil Fielder 1st Half 1993 86 77 377
Miguel Cabrera 1st Half 2010 83 77 359
Generated 7/18/2013.

Cabrera fell 8 RBI short of Greenberg's record, which just so happens to be a MLB record too.  Amazingly, Cabrera is also on this list a 2nd time, tying Cecil Fielder for 5th with 77 RBI in 2010.  

 Batting Average:

Player Split Year G BA PA
Harry Heilmann 1st Half 1921 77 .425 346
Ty Cobb 1st Half 1925 70 .410 323
Harry Heilmann 1st Half 1925 76 .404 335
Ty Cobb 1st Half 1922 68 .394 308
Ty Cobb 1st Half 1921 67 .392 320
Harry Heilmann 1st Half 1923 73 .392 318
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/18/2013.

It shouldn't be a surprise that Ty Cobb and Harry Heilmann dominate this list.  Cabrera only ranks 16th with his .365 AVG.  Interestingly, 2 recent Tigers are ahead of him; Ivan Rodriguez had a .369 AVG in the first half of 2004 and Magglio Ordonez had an AVG of .367 in the first half of 2007.  

 On Base Percentage: 
Player Split Year G OBP PA
Ty Cobb 1st Half 1925 70 .500 323
Norm Cash 1st Half 1961 86 .483 362
Harry Heilmann 1st Half 1923 73 .478 318
Harry Heilmann 1st Half 1925 76 .478 335
Charlie Gehringer 1st Half 1934 76 .472 345
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/18/2013.

Cabrera ranks 12th with his .458 OBP for the first half.  

 Slugging Percentage:

Player Split Year G SLG PA
Ty Cobb 1st Half 1925 70 .694 323
Hank Greenberg 1st Half 1937 67 .688 304
Miguel Cabrera 1st Half 2013 93 .674 428
Hank Greenberg 1st Half 1935 76 .671 360
Harry Heilmann 1st Half 1921 77 .668 346
Generated 7/18/2013.

Cabrera sneaks back in the top 5, in the third spot.  

 On Base + Slugging Percentage:

Player Split Year G OPS OPStot PA
Ty Cobb 1st Half 1925 70 1.194 1.068 323
Hank Greenberg 1st Half 1937 67 1.150 1.105 304
Norm Cash 1st Half 1961 86 1.149 1.149 362
Miguel Cabrera 1st Half 2013 93 1.132 1.132 428
Harry Heilmann 1st Half 1921 77 1.129 1.051 346
Generated 7/18/2013.

Again, Cabrera is in the top 5, this time at fourth.  

 Wow, did Ty Cobb have a great first half in 1925, hitting .410/.500/.694/1.194, ranking first in every stat except batting average, which he finished 2nd.  He hit 11 of his 12 HR in the first half that year.  

 You may or may not heard of this stat tweeted by Sports Center:

However, they are using the All-Star break as the halfway point, therefore their stats only go back as far as 1933.  If you include the prior years like above, another name joins the list, Jimmie Foxx, who accomplished the feat in 1932:


Rk I Player Split G Year PA HR RBI
1 Jimmie Foxx 1st Half 80 1932 356 30 93
2 Miguel Cabrera 1st Half 93 2013 428 30 95
3 Chris Davis 1st Half 95 2013 393 37 93
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/18/2013.
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