Most Wins Without a Complete Game

Yesterday Max Scherzer pitched another brilliant game, 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K while lowering his season ERA to 3.24.  He reached the magic number of pitches, exactly 100, and was promptly replaced.  Again, it left fans wondering just when Scherzer would get a chance at a complete game.

Below is the table of pitchers with the most wins without a complete game, something that Fox Sports Detroit seems to show whenever Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello is pitching:

Rk	Player	W	CG	From	To	Age	G	GS	SHO	GF	L	W-L%	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+
1	Max Scherzer	60	0	2008	2013	23-28	154	145	0	2	42	.588	0	888.0	828	416	377	290	929	3.82	112
2	Tony Armas	53	0	1999	2008	21-30	185	167	0	7	65	.449	0	925.2	891	519	478	431	680	4.65	94
3	Rick Porcello	50	0	2009	2013	20-24	131	130	0	1	45	.526	0	748.2	861	414	383	191	431	4.60	93
4	Scott Olsen	37	0	2005	2010	21-26	130	127	0	0	49	.430	0	723.0	778	446	390	291	528	4.85	88
5	Bud Norris	33	0	2009	2013	24-28	111	110	0	0	42	.440	0	639.2	637	340	306	265	604	4.31	92
6	Ivan Nova	31	0	2010	2013	23-26	72	66	0	5	15	.674	0	400.1	431	209	197	140	303	4.43	95
7	Lance Lynn	27	0	2011	2013	24-26	65	43	0	4	9	.750	1	285.2	249	111	109	101	296	3.43	111
8	Mike Minor	26	0	2010	2013	22-25	66	65	0	1	17	.605	0	381.1	354	180	169	111	337	3.99	99
9	Chris Narveson	26	0	2006	2013	24-31	97	63	0	9	18	.591	0	396.2	394	213	205	150	326	4.65	87
10	Mike Thurman	26	0	1997	2002	23-28	105	87	0	9	36	.419	0	493.2	537	311	277	190	296	5.05	89

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 6/7/2013.

All of these pitchers have pitched within the last 15 years and only Tony Armas, Scott Olsen and Mike Thurman haven't pitched in 2013 from this list.  With specialized roles in the bullpen and an emphasis on pitch counts, it has already become more common to not get a complete game out of a pitcher for his career, but I don't think we're there yet in regards to Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello.  It seems like both Scherzer and Porcello have taken a step forward this year, therefore it is now a matter of "when" not "if" they can go the distance.  

Max Scherzer has pitched 5 games this year while going at least 8 innings.  That's already 1 more than his career high of 4 games in 2010, for which if it wasn't for an extra inning game, he would have already recorded a complete game by going 9 innings.  

Below is a game log for Scherzer first sorted by number of innings, then number of pitches:

Date	IP	Pitches
9/1/2010	9	106
5/10/2013	8	103
4/24/2011	8	104
4/17/2013	8	105
5/4/2013	8	105
5/4/2011	8	109
7/2/2010	8	110
9/7/2012	8	110
9/1/2012	8	113
7/16/2011	8	116
5/21/2013	8	118
5/31/2013	8	119
8/26/2010	8	121
9/22/2010	8	121
6/17/2012	8	122

3 of the top 5 happened this year; he's getting closer.  Now it is up to Jim Leyland to put him back out there in the 9th.

For Rick Porcello, he only has 1 game in 2013 where he's gone 8 innings, therefore his complete game bid has been more spread out.  However, he's been much more efficient with his pitches:

Date	IP	Pitches
5/22/2011	8	84
8/1/2009	8	91
7/21/2012	8	94
5/1/2012	8	98
7/17/2010	8	99
5/28/2013	8	99
9/9/2010	8	105
9/26/2010	8	107
7/29/2011	8	107

I'm not exactly sure what Leyland's mindset was in the May game in 2011, as it looks like Porcello could have gotten a complete game without reaching the magic 100 pitch count.

After the implosion against the Angels, Porcello has a 3.48 ERA and is averaging exactly a strikeout an inning in 7 starts as he seems to have taken a big step forward this year.  

Tigers Waste Two Great Pitching Performances

Pitching wins is a stat that traditionalists hang onto despite the known flaws and better alternatives. There was even a debate about it spawned off an article about Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout in the comments at Bless You Boys. The flaw of course is that the pitcher is at the mercy of the offense; he can’t get the win if his offense doesn’t give him any runs. There have now been two recent incidents of this:

Player	Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K
Rick Porcello	5/28/2013	8	3	0	1	11
Doug Fister	5/30/2013	7	4	0	1	12

The Tigers were shutout in both games and therefore each pitcher didn’t get a win. One alternative to pitching wins is to just look at Game Score, a stat created by Bill James. To calculate Game Score:

• Start with 50 points
• Add 1 point for each out, so 3 points for each inning
• Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4^th inning
• Add 1 point for each strikeout
• Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed
• Subtract 4 points for each earned run
• Subtract 2 points for each unearned run
• Subtract 1 point for each walk

Game Score attempts to measure the strength of the pitcher’s start; the higher the score, the better the start. Lee Panas at Tiger Tales used Game Score to point out one of Justin Verlander’s recent starts was one of the worst of his career. To look at the opposite direction, here are the Tigers best Game Scores so far in 2013:

Rk	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pit	Str	GSc
1	Anibal Sanchez	2013-05-24	DET	MIN	W 6-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	1	0	0	3	12	0	130	85	94
2	Anibal Sanchez	2013-04-26	DET	ATL	W 10-0	GS-8 ,W	8.0	5	0	0	1	17	0	121	84	88
3	Rick Porcello	2013-05-28	DET	PIT	L 0-1	GS-8	8.0	3	0	0	1	11	0	99	67	86
4	Doug Fister	2013-05-30	DET	PIT	L 0-1	GS-7	7.0	4	0	0	1	12	0	116	73	80
5	Max Scherzer	2013-05-21	DET	CLE	W 5-1	GS-8 ,W	8.0	2	1	1	1	7	0	118	77	80
6	Justin Verlander	2013-05-05	DET	HOU	W 9-0	GS-7 ,W	7.0	2	0	0	2	9	0	116	80	80
7	Max Scherzer	2013-05-04	DET	HOU	W 17-2	GS-8 ,W	8.0	3	1	1	2	8	1	105	74	78
8	Max Scherzer	2013-04-17	DET	SEA	W 2-1	GS-8	8.0	6	1	1	1	12	0	105	75	77
9	Anibal Sanchez	2013-04-14	DET	OAK	W 10-1	GS-7 ,W	7.0	3	1	1	4	8	0	113	68	71
10	Justin Verlander	2013-04-30	DET	MIN	W 6-1	GS-7 ,W	7.0	5	1	1	2	8	0	114	73	69

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 5/31/2013.

In Rick Porcello's case, that was the best Game Score of his career.  Both Porcello and Fister's starts are in the top 5 best pitching performances so far this year - yet they have nothing to show for their efforts.

Historically, how do they rank in Tigers history?  Using Baseball Reference's Play Index, I set the parameters to include the Tigers best Game Scores in which the pitcher didn't get the win (either a no decision or a loss) set back as far as it will go, to 1916:  

Rk	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pit	Str	GSc
1	Les Mueller	1945-07-21	DET	PHA	T 1-1	GS-20	19.2	13	1	0	5	6	0			112
2	Eric Erickson	1918-05-24	DET	WSH	T 2-2		16.0	8	2	1	0	12	0			112
3	Al Aber	1954-08-13	DET	CHW	L 0-1	CG 16 ,L	15.1	9	1	1	3	8	0			101
4	Harry Coveleski	1916-05-19	DET	NYY	T 2-2		16.0	8	2	2	6	7	0			99
5	Tommy Bridges	1942-08-11 (1)	DET	CLE	T 0-0		14.0	9	0	0	5	8	0			97
6	Schoolboy Rowe	1941-09-21 (2)	DET	CHW	T 1-1		14.0	8	1	1	3	6	0			95
7	Harry Coveleski	1916-07-02	DET	CHW	L 0-1		11.2	5	1	1	0	8	0			93
8	Jim Bunning	1963-04-20	DET	BOS	L 3-4	GS-12	12.0	7	1	1	2	10	0			92
9	Jim Bunning	1957-05-21	DET	BAL	W 2-1	GS-13	13.0	10	1	1	2	11	1			92
10	Ralph Branca	1953-09-05	DET	SLB	L 0-1	CG 12 ,L	11.0	4	1	1	1	8	1			92

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 5/31/2013.

Neither Porcello or Fister's start made the list.  However, looking at everyone on the list, each one pitched more than 9 innings.  In this day and age, that feat is rare.  Changing the parameters so that the maximum innings are set to 9, produces this list:

Rk	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pit	Str	GSc
1	Mickey Lolich	1969-06-09	DET	SEP	L 2-3	GS-9	9.0	4	1	1	1	16	1			90
2	Earl Wilson	1966-07-06	DET	CAL	L 0-1	GS-9	9.0	4	0	0	1	11	0			89
3	Rick Porcello	2013-05-28	DET	PIT	L 0-1	GS-8	8.0	3	0	0	1	11	0	99	67	86
4	Jeff Weaver	2002-06-12	DET	MON	L 1-2	GS-9	9.0	2	1	1	2	9	1	117	82	86
5	Schoolboy Rowe	1935-09-22	DET	SLB	L 0-1		9.0	4	1	1	0	10	0			85
6	Justin Verlander	2012-04-05	DET	BOS	W 3-2	GS-8	8.0	2	0	0	1	7	0	105	66	84
7	Jack Morris	1988-07-26	DET	KCR	W 2-1	GS-9	9.0	4	1	1	1	10	0	127	87	84
8	Dan Petry	1985-09-28	DET	BOS	L 0-2	GS-9	9.0	2	0	0	4	5	0			84
9	Dave Wickersham	1964-05-10 (1)	DET	BAL	L 1-2	CG 9 ,L	9.0	3	2	0	4	11	0			84
10	Max Scherzer	2010-09-01	DET	MIN	L 1-2	GS-9	9.0	4	1	1	1	9	0	106	76	83
11	Jim Bunning	1960-08-02 (2)	DET	NYY	L 2-3	GS-9	8.0	2	1	1	2	11	0			83
12	Tommy Bridges	1940-05-11	DET	CHW	L 0-1		9.0	2	1	1	2	6	0			83
13	Frank Lary	1958-09-03	DET	CHW	L 0-1	CG 9 ,L	9.0	2	1	1	2	5	0			82
14	Justin Verlander	2012-08-23	DET	TOR	W 3-2	GS-9	9.0	4	2	2	2	12	1	115	76	81
15	Mickey Lolich	1965-09-22	DET	CHW	L 1-2	CG 9 ,L	9.0	5	2	1	1	11	1			81
16	Ted Gray	1951-08-12	DET	SLB	W 2-1		8.0	3	1	1	3	12	1			81
17	Vic Sorrell	1932-04-17	DET	SLB	L 0-1		9.0	3	1	1	1	5	0			81
18	Doug Fister	2013-05-30	DET	PIT	L 0-1	GS-7	7.0	4	0	0	1	12	0	116	73	80
19	Willie Blair	1999-04-12	DET	MIN	L 0-1	GS-8	8.0	3	0	0	0	4	0	92	58	80
20	Jack Morris	1990-07-27	DET	BOS	L 0-1	CG 9 ,L	9.0	4	1	0	2	5	0	122	78	80
21	Mark Fidrych	1976-07-29	DET	BAL	L 0-1	CG 9 ,L	9.0	6	1	0	1	8	0			80
22	Earl Whitehill	1929-08-23	DET	WSH	L 0-1		9.0	4	1	1	0	5	0			80

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 5/31/2013.

I had to expand the list to 22 to get both of Porcello and Fister's starts on the list.  One interesting note is that there wasn't an instance of two top Game Score non-wins in the same year with a maximum of nine innings until 2012 - and both were by Verlander, one at the beginning and one at the end of the year.  The two starts in 2013 happened just days apart!