2015 Preseason Prediction #5 - Yoenis Cespedes

Yoenis Cespedes was acquired from the Boston Red Sox when the Tigers traded away Rick Porcello.  Cespedes will replace Torii Hunter in the OF.  Will he hit better than Hunter did last year?  

Cespedes has some declining trends since making his ML debut in 2012 after defecting from Cuba:

Year	BABIP	AVG	BB%	K%	ISO
2012	0.326	0.292	8.0%	18.9%	0.214
2013	0.274	0.240	6.4%	23.9%	0.202
2014	0.293	0.260	5.4%	19.8%	0.190

Cespedes had a .326 BABIP in his rookie year, which led to a high batting average of .292.  His BABIP hasn't reach quite as high in the last couple of years, which has resulted in lower batting averages.

Looking at batted ball data, there does seem to be a trend of declining ground balls and an increase in fly balls:

Year	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB
2012	19.6%	40.5%	39.9%	14.8%
2013	16.7%	37.7%	45.6%	14.4%
2014	18.4%	33.6%	48.0%	9.6%

This could explain why Cespedes has had lower batting averages in the last two years.  Cespedes gets more base hits when hitting the ball on the ground then he does hitting the ball in the air, probably due to his above average speed (all numbers from FanGraphs):

Year	LD AVG	GB AVG	FB AVG
2012	0.750	0.306	0.243
2013	0.636	0.309	0.220
2014	0.713	0.261	0.232

The other concerning declining number is the walk rate.  Cespedes had a very respectable 8% walk rate in his rookie year.  However, that number decreased to 6.4% in 2013 and fell even further in 2014 to 5.4%.  If he could get this number back to around 8%, he could be an intriguing candidate for the #2 spot in the batting order given his above average speed.  However, this is looking more and more like an aberration and his low OBP doesn't really justify him at the #2 spot.  

Cespedes' ISO has also been trending down, but not at an alarming rate.  It has been the most stable out of all of these numbers.  His power numbers are better suited for the middle of the batting order, most likely at #5.  Baring injury, he should be able to top 20 HR again.  

Lastly, Cespdes' left/righty splits make no sense.  In 2013, he hit better against LHP, but in 2014 he hit better against RHP:

AVG	Vs. RHP	Vs. LHP
2012	0.289	0.298
2013	0.223	0.280
2014	0.279	0.199

If he could get his splits back to about even like it was in 2012, this could also help bring his batting average back to the .290-range.  Being a right-handed hitter, it makes sense that he'll hit left-handed pitchers better, so I expected a repeat of the 2013 splits.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	551	0.267	0.320	0.463	23	73	7	38	122
CAIRO	564	0.259	0.312	0.454	24	81	9	39	130
ZiPS	579	0.275	0.324	0.482	27	103	10	39	120
RotoChamp	548	0.272	0.318	0.462	23	89	8	35	124
CBS Sports	585	0.248	0.294	0.434	23	86	6	38	130
ESPN	581	0.267	0.316	0.473	23	97	6	41	124
MLB.com	568	0.269	0.319	0.488	25	95	8	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (25)	577	0.265	0.315	0.470	24	86	7	38	129

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	600	0.260	0.301	0.450	22	100	7	35	128
2015 Prediction	577	0.253	0.302	0.451	25	93	7	38	131

Fantasy Impact:  Yoenis Cespedes currently has an average draft position of 53 according to Mock Draft Central, which places him in the 4th round.  This sounds about right as there were only 10 outfielders last year who hit 25+ home runs and only 6 of them had 90+ RBI.  So if Cespedes can reach those numbers, he'd be worth a 4th round pick.  

2015 Preseason Prediction #4 - Anibal Sanchez

The most frustrating thing about Anibal Sanchez is his inability to stay healthy.  He's been on the disabled list 3 times since the Tigers acquired him and only pitched 126 innings in 2014.  During his time with the Tigers, Sanchez has a great ERA (3.08) with an even better FIP (2.75) and has been one of the most underrated pitchers in the league.  

Looking at his trends is a tad confusing:

Year	K/9	BB/9	HR/FB
2011	9.26	2.93	10.4%
2012	7.68	2.21	10.7%
2013	9.99	2.67	5.8%
2014	7.29	2.14	3.1%

The walk rate is the easiest to predict, it has been under 3.0 for four straight years therefore it'll probably be under 3.0 again in 2015.  

The strikeout rate has an odd trend; the every other year trend would say that Sanchez is primed to have a strikeout per 9 of around 9.0 again.  However, the "every other year" thing hardly has any substance.  According to Brooks Baseball, here is Anibal Sanchez' breakdown of strikeouts by pitch type:

Year	Hard	Breaking	Off-Speed
2011	18.0%	35.6%	33.7%
2012	15.5%	24.1%	30.1%
2013	24.4%	34.1%	33.3%
2014	24.9%	15.8%	24.0%

It looks like the biggest difference is in his breaking pitch, which was cut almost in half from a year ago.  If Sanchez is able to get that rate back up to around 35% again, he should have a K/9 of around 9.0 again.  However, the effectiveness of his slider and curve wasn't a major issue last year, so the need of getting this number back up may not be a pressing one.  The ability to stay healthy might also effect his strikeout rates.  

Finally, the most bizarre stat is his home run to fly ball ratio.  This stat usually stabilizes, which is why the xFIP stat was created.  FIP uses the individual pitcher's HR rate (along with strikeouts and walks), but xFIP substitutes this stat for the league average HR/FB ratio, which was 9.5% in 2014.  The thinking is that the pitcher has very little control in this stat, therefore when predicting future ERA, xFIP is better because it attempts to take "luck" away from this stat.  HR/FB ratio has only been tracked since 2002, but it is usually around 10%.  

In Anibal Sanchez' case, this stat has been below average for 2 years now after being right around "normal" for the 2 years prior.  Now, Sanchez only pitched 126 innings last year, so maybe he didn't pitch enough for this stat to stabilize.  Conventional wisdom says that this stat will not stay low for 2015.  

Sanchez' xFIP was 3.56 last year compared to a 2.71 FIP.  SIERA, which is another ERA estimator that uses batted ball data, was 3.64 last year.  Therefore, Sanchez' FIP was probably overrated last year.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	163	11-9	3.76	1.21	143	42
CAIRO	156	8-9	3.06	1.21	141	41
ZiPS	152	11-6	3.43	1.20	138	40
RotoChamp	149	11-6	3.02	1.14	138	39
CBS Sports	195	13-9	3.60	1.19	186	48
ESPN	184	13 W	3.67	1.20	165	50
MLB.com	191	13-8	3.53	1.15	161	46
FanGraphs' Fans (10)	163	12-8	3.45	1.18	149	43

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2014 Prediction	191	14-7	3.39	1.246	200	60
2014 Actual	126	8-5	3.43	1.095	102	30
2015 Prediction	173 2/3	13-7	3.68	1.198	144	45

Fantasy Impact:  According to Mock Draft Central, Anibal Sanchez has an average draft position of about 156.  That would be in the 13th round in a typical 12-team league.  Given his injury concerns and fluctuating strikeout rate, this may be too high.  I love pitching that gives me strikeouts and the fact that it is not guaranteed that Sanchez will have a 9.0 K/9 has me leery on him, especially if he is only going to give about 160-170 innings.  The HR/FB rate also scares me since that's a sign that his ERA could jump.   

2015 Preseason Prediction #3 - Victor Martinez

One of the biggest problems with doing predictions is that every once in awhile you are completely wrong about your expectations that in hindsight you wonder how you could have ever thought that.  Victor Martinez' prediction was supposed to be easy.  He was entering his age 35 season and showing signs of a slow but steady decline.  Instead he broke out and put up numbers like a 25 year old entering his prime, not someone who was supposed to be exiting his prime.  V-Mart was in the elusive 1% company that defies all logic and reasoning.

Now going forward, how are we supposed to treat him 2014 season?  Usually when I do these predictions, I look at the most recent 3 seasons and then make small adjustments based on "luck," age and other factors.  Is there anything about V-Mart's 2014 season that can carry forward to 2015, or is that whole season one big fluke?  Victor had the highest AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO, HR and RBI of his career last year.  He also had the lowest K rate of his career.  

When someone has a high AVG, it usually is accompanied by a high BABIP.  But this is not the case with V-Mart.  His BABIP was exactly the same as his career mark, .316.  Yet, his AVG was 29 points higher than his career AVG, .335 to .306.  Batted ball data was also not that different: 

Year	AVG	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	0.330	0.343	24.2%	42.7%	33.1%
2013	0.301	0.313	22.3%	42.3%	35.4%
2014	0.335	0.316	21.3%	40.6%	38.1%
Career	0.306	0.316	20.8%	42.8%	36.3%

He hit more fly balls and less ground balls, which makes sense given the number of home runs he hit.  However, his HR/FB ratio was still the highest of his career, a number that typically would regress the following season.

Year	ISO	HR%	HR/FB
2011	0.141	2.0%	7.3%
2013	0.129	2.1%	7.2%
2014	0.230	5.0%	16.0%
Career	0.168	3.1%	10.7%

Finally, there's the injury concern.  He needed surgery again on the same knee that made him miss all of the 2012 season.  The good news is that he would only miss 4-6 weeks, which puts his return right around opening day.  Factoring in this injury makes me hesitant that he will continue to defy the laws of aging.  On one hand he's entering his age 36 season, will be missing all of Spring Training and will need time to get his groove back (just like in 2013).  On the other hand, the surgery isn't as sever as it was in 2012 and he is coming off his best season of his career, which may or may not be a fluke.  I'm taking the conservative route here, which probably means he'll hit 30+ home runs again.

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	466	0.308	0.375	0.485	18	74	2	49	45
CAIRO	573	0.309	0.375	0.483	22	77	3	59	61
ZiPS	478	0.303	0.360	0.473	18	79	1	44	46
RotoChamp	372	0.304	0.374	0.457	12	62	1	42	31
CBS Sports	560	0.316	0.378	0.502	23	98	1	56	50
ESPN	545	0.312	0.378	0.484	21	81	2	58	48
MLB.com	530	0.313	0.387	0.487	20	86	1
FanGraphs' Fans (23)	543	0.313	0.377	0.477	19	88	0	58	52

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	564	0.309	0.360	0.441	13	91	0	48	59
2014 Actual	561	0.335	0.409	0.565	32	103	3	70	42
2015 Prediction	533	0.310	0.375	0.452	15	94	1	57	48

Fantasy Impact: The hard part about drafting a DH is that it leaves you with absolutely no flexibility; you have to use him in a UTL spot (although V-Mart does have 1B eligibility).  This wasn't a problem last year as V-Mart helped you in all categories other than SB.  This year, if everything regresses to the mean, he won't help you as much.  Someone like Adam Lind could give you similar results without the name recognition value.  Grab him if he falls, but he'll likely get over-drafted as most flukes are over-drafted the following year.  Unless of course he continues to defy logic and reasoning.  

2015 Preseason Prediction #2 - David Price

David Price pitched better for the Tigers than you realize (stats are from FanGraphs).  

2014	IP	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%	K%	BB%
TB	170 2/3	0.301	20.7%	40.5%	38.8%	27.4%	3.3%
DET	77 2/3	0.317	20.5%	42.7%	36.8%	25.6%	4.7%

There's not much difference in the batted ball data (line drive, fly ball and ground ball rates).  The strikeout rate is lower, but still higher than any other season.  The walk rate is the biggest jump, but not at an alarming rate.  However, Price had a 3.59 ERA for the Tigers, which was up from a 3.11 ERA on the Rays.  The stats show it is most likely the defense that was the biggest difference.  

2014	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA
TB	3.11	2.93	2.70	2.63
DET	3.59	2.44	2.89	2.92

The ERA estimators show that Price should have had an ERA below 3.00 last year, for both the Tigers and Tampa Bay.  The good news is that the Tigers should have a better overall defense in 2015.  If Jose Iglesias is healthy and is the primary shortshop, that is a huge improvement in the infield defense.  It's also hard to imagine Nick Castellanos to be worse than his historically bad 3B defense.  All three OF spots should also provide better overall defense.  

David Price is entering his age 29 season in 2015, an age that is usually right in the middle of "prime" years, therefore a repeat performance shouldn't be out of the question.  His K/9 was over 9.0 for the first time in his career last year.  For the 2nd straight year, his BB/9 was under 2.0.  If both these trends continue in 2015, he could have his best season yet.  

The other number that jumps out is his innings pitched.  Price had pitched a total of 248 1/3 innings in 2015, which is the 5th most a pitcher has thrown in a single season over the last 5 years.  Given his age, it shouldn't be a cause for alarm yet; the four pitchers ahead of him pitched somewhere between 227 and 238 innings the following year.  Bearing injury, there should be no reason to expect Price to not pitch over 200 innings again in 2015.  I do find it interesting that there is a lot of similarity to Justin Verlander in innings pitched per game started over the years: 

IP/GS	Age 26	Age 27	Age 28	Age 29	Age 30	Age 31
Verlander	6.9	6.8	7.4	7.2	6.4	6.4
Price	6.8	6.9	7.3	???	???	???

There might be some cause for concern later on, but not in 2015, if there is any correlation to decreasing number of innings and performance that Verlander has shown.    

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	192	13-9	3.23	1.11	179	37
CAIRO	218	14-10	3.03	1.15	215	39
ZiPS	210 2/3	15-9	3.67	1.19	204	40
RotoChamp	200	16-7	2.88	1.09	202	33
CBS Sports	240	19-7	2.89	1.09	253	43
ESPN	224	17 W	3.25	1.08	216	37
MLB.com	220	16-9	3.03	1.07	218	31
FanGraphs' Fans (21)	228	16-9	3.23	1.04	231	40

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	248 1/3	15-12	3.26	1.079	271	38
2015 Predicion	234 2/3	18-7	3.03	1.074	238	40

Fantasy Impact:  According to Mock Draft Central, Price is being taken 35th overall, which is the end of the 3rd round in a standard 12-team league.  This is about where I'd put him.  Price may barely be out of the top 5 SP ranking, but he's definitely in the top 10.  With a high strikeout rate, low ERA and WHIP, he'll be able to anchor your starting pitching.