A Look at Bryan Holaday and Jose Ortega

The Tigers recently made two moves.  They placed Alex Avila on the DL and designated Omir Santos for assignment.  They promoted catcher Byan Holaday and relief pitcher Jose Ortega to take their spots on the roster.  The following players have been, at one time or another, on the 25-man roster that started the year in AAA: Holaday, Ortega, Drew Smyly, Casey Crosby, Luke Putkonen, Brayan Villarreal, Adam Wilk, Thad Weber, Quintin Berry, Matt Young, Omir Santos, Brad Eldred, Clete Thomas.  That’s 13 players and we’re barely in June.  If my calculations are correct, the Tigers had 16 players on their roster last year who started in the minors, and that includes September call-ups.

Bryan Holaday

Bryan Holaday is a right-handed batter that had a stat line of .248/.313/.314, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 11 BB, 23 K in 137 PA in AAA.  He has a career stat line of .238/.314/.343, 10 HR, 64 RBI, 59 BB, 142 K in 696 PA spanning 3 years in the minors.  He was drafted out of college and immediately got placed in High-A ball and then moved to AA in 2011 and AAA in 2012.  His strong defensive skills (38.5% caught stealing rate this year) probably helped him speed through the minors and eventually to the majors.  His numbers don’t suggest that he’ll be any more than a back-up at the ML level, and unless he’s very, very good at defense he probably won’t last long.  I’ve read that he does have strong leadership qualities, so that should help too.

Holaday was batting .333/.385/.417 against left-handed pitching, but that’s only in 28 PA.  In 2011 he was hitting .169/.247/.277 against left-handed pitching, so his improvement is most likely due to small sampling.  He did improve on his LD rate, 17.6% from 14.4% in 2011, so that’s a positive.  Yeah, there’s really not much to look at there, except to hope that he’s really good on defense.

Bryan Holaday is starting today and batting 9^th, so we should know soon enough how good he is at defense.

Jose Ortega

Jose Ortega was once ranked #10 Tigers prospect by Baseball-America in 2011.  He’s a right-handed pitcher, who had 29 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.897 WHIP, 9.0 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 3.89 FIP, 4.55 SIERA.  Yikes, look at that walk rate!  He throws a mid-90s fastball that he apparently needs help commanding.  It gives him a good strikeout rate, but a terrible walk rate.

Left-handers are hitting .216/.463/.270 against him and right-handers are hitting .257/.369/.371 against him.  He looks like he’ll be a pretty solid pitcher that can get both lefties and righties out, if he can just get better command and control on his pitches.

I’m predicting that it’ll be a short stay for Ortega as he just doesn’t look ready for prime time.

Don’t Forget About Adam Wilk

Adam Wilk pitched on Sunday, going 7 1/3 IP, giving up 5 hits, 4 runs (3 earned), 1 walk and striking out 4.  He made 1 mistake, a grand slam.  On the season in Toledo, he has a stat line of 3.40 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6.62 K/9, 1.79 BB/9, 3.88 FIP in 50 1/3 innings.  When it was time to replace Doug Fister again, the Tigers turned to Casey Crosby (4.26 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 10.13 K/9, 4.62 BB/9, 3.52 FIP) instead of giving Adam Wilk another chance.

Now, I’m not saying that they made the wrong choice.  It’s not always about the stats when it comes to the development of prospects.  They had already tried Adam Wilk once this year and it didn’t go so well (11 IP, 8.81 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, 5.73 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 7.29 FIP).  Trying someone else to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle sometimes works (look at Quintin Berry). 

Casey Crosby’s walk-a-thon of a start didn’t go exactly as the Tigers had hoped, but they are giving him another start.  Fair enough, they gave Adam Wilk 3 starts.  However, Adam Wilk is making it very hard for people (well me) to forget about him.

Wilk could be getting a little lucky, as his BABIP is a very low .226 while giving up 20.8% LD.  He doesn’t have a high GB%, 35.1%, but his SIERA is a respectable 3.86.  Opponents are only hitting .210/.246/.360 against him.  What’s really impressive is that he’s getting right-handed batters out (.191/.222/.303 batting against).  That combined with the fact that he’s averaging over 6 innings/start shows that he could stay as a starter.

Wilk’s best asset is that he limits the amount of walks; he’s never allowed more than 2 walks per nine innings in the minors.  He’s not going to wow you with his strikeouts, only striking out about 6.5 batters per nine innings.  He works almost the exact opposite way of Casey Crosby, who has a great strikeout rate but a below average walk rate.  Wilk throws an 87 MPH fastball, a cutter, a curveball and a changeup.  He doesn’t throw fast and doesn’t strike guys out; these type of pitchers don’t typically last long in the Tigers organization.

When Fister is healthy and Duane Below doing well in the bullpen (2.63 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 7.13 IP, 1.13 BB/9, 2.89 FIP) there’s seemingly no room for Wilk, especially seeing that Crosby and possibly Jacob Turner later this year are higher on the depth chart.  My prediction is that the Tigers are going to use Wilk as trade bait when the deadline approaches.  They could call him up and “showcase” him to other teams at the ML level, maybe even giving him a start or 2 (similar to Charlie Furbush last year).

The Tigers don’t have much in trade bait in the minors and it looks like they are going to have to make a move or 2 at the deadline.  Adam Wilk continuing to do well could be one of the best things to happen to the Tigers this year.

AL Central Pitching and Defense Breakdown

Earlier I looked at run scoring for the ALCentral teams.  Now I’ll look at the other side, run prevention, i.e. pitching and defense. 

Runs Allowed/Game:
CHW – 4.07
KCR – 4.38
DET – 4.57
CLE – 4.85
MIN – 5.36

Pitching:

ERA:
CHW – 3.89
KCR – 4.16
DET – 4.24
CLE – 4.48
MIN – 5.15

FIP:
DET – 3.80
KCR – 3.94
CHW – 4.01
CLE – 4.09
MIN – 4.77

xFIP:
DET – 3.72
CHW – 4.01
KCR – 4.22
MIN – 4.36

tERA:
DET – 4.29
CWS – 4.37
CLE – 4.55
KCR – 4.55
MIN – 5.24

SIERA:
DET – 3.44
CHW – 3.64
KCR – 4.03
MIN – 4.15
CLE – 4.24

The Tigers have allowed more runs than the White Sox and Royals, however how much of that is pitching and how much is defense?  FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA attempt to remove defense from the equation and the Tigers are #1 in all 4 of these stats in the AL Central.  The Tigers also lead in K/9, 8.49 and in K/BB, 2.88, not only in the AL Central but in the entire AL.  Looking at these stats, it’s a safe assumption that the Tigers have a pretty good pitching staff as a whole and dare I say the best pitching in the division?

Defense:

DRS:
KCR – 11
CLE – 1
MIN – 0
CWS – (3)
DET – (25)

UZR:
MIN – 7.9
CWS – 1.1
KCR – (2)
CLE – (19.5)
DET – (24.2)

The Tigers have been absolutely horrible on defense and it’s making their pitching look much worse than it actually is.  Brennan Boesch and Miguel Cabrera are last in their respective positions in UZR.  Prince Fielder and Ryan Raburn are near the bottom.  Alex Avila, Jhonny Peralta and Andy Dirks are only average at best.  The only position player that has been way above average is Austin Jackson.

   

Putting it all together, run differential:

CHW: +40
KCR: -8
DET: -14
CLE: -24
MIN: -74

The White Sox are the team to beat.  If the Tigers were even average on defense (adding about 24 or 25 runs to their run differential), they’d be on the positive side.  I personally believe their offense will improve; they are just too talented not to.  It’s their defense that will be the Tigers downfall.  And they are kind of stuck.  They aren't going to move Cabrera or Fielder away from their positions, which is the main difference between last year and this year.

Therefore, the Tigers need to compensate in other areas, mainly their offense.  Not only do they have to improve their hitting with the players they have, but they need to add someone at the deadline.  

AL Central Offense Breakdown

Runs/Game:
CHW – 4.81
CLE – 4.40
DET – 4.31
KCR – 3.98
MIN – 3.96

OPS:
CHW - .750
DET - .742
KCR - .723
CLE - .714
MIN - .695

OPS+:
DET – 103
CLE – 102
CHW – 101
KCR – 99
MIN – 94

wOBA:
CHW - .328
DET - .324
CLE - .318
KCR - .315
MIN - .306

wRC+:
CHW – 103
DET – 102
CLE – 100
KCR – 97
MIN – 93

Chicago seems to be the leader on offense, with Cleveland and Detroit not far behind.  Kansas City is next and then at the bottom Minnesota. 

However, is Detroit under-performing?

Bases Empty:
DET - .736 OPS
KCR - .732 OPS
CHW - .719 OPS
CLE - .664 OPS
MIN - .654 OPS

Men on Base:
CHW - .794 OPS
CLE - .775 OPS
DET - .750 OPS
MIN - .749 OPS
KCR - .713 OPS

RISP:
CHW - .791 OPS
DET - .774 OPS
CLE - .762 OPS
MIN - .740 OPS
KCR - .664 OPS

Detroit is the best in the division with the bases empty and 2^nd in the division when hitting with RISP.  However, they are 3^rd with men on base.

 

One of the biggest complaints on the Tigers is that they get men on base, but can’t bring them home.  Well, according to the numbers, they seem to be doing alright with men on base and in scoring position.  Is our perception wrong?  Are the Tigers really getting men on base?

OBP:
CLE - .333
DET - .328
CHW - .327
KCR - .319
MIN - .319

Baserunners/game:
CLE – 25.38
MIN – 23.74
DET – 23.06
CHW – 22.89
KCR – 22.56

This is the number of runners that are on base that a batter sees while he’s batting.  Some runners might be counted more than once because a runner on base could be on base for more than one batter.   I divided it by the number of games to even things out (some teams have played 53 games, some have played 54).  I hope that makes sense.   For comparison’s sake, the Tigers averaged 25.31 baserunners/game last year (with a .340 OBP).

I don’t think the Tigers are getting on base as much as we think they are. But they are scoring 14% of their baserunners, which is exactlyleague average. 

So why aren’t the Tigers scoring more runs?  League average runs/game is 4.40; Tigers are scoring 4.31 runs/game.  League average OPS is .728; Tigers OPS is .742.  There’s a high correlation between OPS and runs scoring.  How can the Tigers be above average in OPS, but below average in runs/game.  A few theories:

Inconsistency – The Tigers hitters have been inconsistent all year.  Brennan Boesch, Jhonny Peralta, Delmon Young and Alex Avila have been up and down this year, which could skew the numbers.  Not to mention having an inconsistent lineup with the recent injuries of Austin Jackson and Andy Dirks.  When they score, they score in bunches and then go in long droughts.  The question is, would it all even out by the end of the year?

Top heavy hitters – The Tigers have great production from Austin Jackson, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  However, the have had very bad production from Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch.   Great OPS hitters and poor OPS hitters even out when averaged, but doesn’t show up that way in the boxscore, skewing the numbers. 

What do you think?  What is wrong with the Tigers offense?  

A Look at Matt Young

Andy Dirks was recently placed on the DL and Matt Young was purchased from Toledo.  He’s very similar to Quintin Berry in that he has little power and lots of speed.   He was batting .259/.431/.354 with 1 HR and 12 SB for Toledo.  He had a little bit of ML experience last year with the Braves and hit .208/.269/.229 in 52 PA.

Young’s best asset is that he can walk.  He was leading the International League in BB% at 23.0%.  This obviously gives him a great OBP of .428, 2^nd in the International League despite a meh average of .259.  His slugging is lower than his OBP, which is a pretty rare feat.  This is a combination of his poor power as well as his great skill at getting on base.

Matt Young has always had this ability of getting on base with little power.  His career minor league stat line is .285/.390/.380.  The lowest his OBP has been was .361 in 2007 and has constantly been at .380 and above.  He’s always had poor power, hitting single digit HR each year.  The speed comes and goes; in 2005 he only stole 10 bases but in 2009 he stole 43. 

As far as balls in play, he has a very normal .325 BABIP, a 26.5% LD and a 47% GB.  It doesn’t look like bunting is a big part of his game, only bunting 2.6% of the time and only 1.0% last year.  However, he is getting a lot of ground balls which is a plus with his speed and his LD% is high which shows he’s making solid contact. 

Matt Young bats left-handed and so he struggles against lefties, .200/.375/.400 in Toledo.  He was hitting .273/.444/.347 against righties.  However, he was able to hit .296/.378/.347 against lefties in AAA last year and .265/.370/.347 against righties.  Unfortunately I can’t go back further than last year to see if this is a true talent or an anomaly.  I’m going to assume an anomaly as lefties usually don’t hit lefties that well (Brennan Boesch notwithstanding).

 

Young has played a little second base, but my guess is that we’ll see him in the OF.  He’s played all three OF spots, but mostly LF and CF.  I don’t really know how good he is defensively, but my guess is that his speed makes him at least average to above average.  He does have a .996 FLD% in CF and .991 FLD% in LF, but fielding percentage isn't always the best metric for defense.

  

I’m not predicting a Quintin Berry-like tear from Young.  Hopefully when he does play, he can use his good on-base skills to give RBI opportunities to our sluggers.  He might just be used as a pinch-runner as the Tigers aren’t exactly known for their speed aside from Berry and Jackson.  As soon as Jackson is healthy, I envision Young to be DFA.  Although they do have 3 catchers and with all the injuries, who knows what will happen?  

Brennan Boesch’s Home/Road Splits

Brennan Boesch has been a disappointment this year.  Many people predicted that this would be Boesch’s breakout season, being his 3^rd year in the league and hitting in front of sluggers Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  However, he’s taking a step backwards, especially with the BB rate.  Here’s what he’s doing compared to the last 2 years:

2010 – .512 PA, 256/.320/.416, 14 HR, 7.8% BB%, 19.3% K%

2011 – 472 PA, .283/.341/.458, 16 HR, 7.4% BB%, 17.6% K%

2012 – 208 PA, .234/.269/.355, 5 HR, 3.8% BB%, 18.8% K%

Looking deeper into the stats, it seems like the problem is only happening at home.

2012:

Home – 101 PA, .182/.198/.303, 4 HR, 1.0% BB%, 20.8% K%

Road – 107 PA, .286/.336/.408, 1 HR, 6.5% BB%, 16.8% K%

Except for decreasing power, his road numbers look like what everyone was expecting Boesch to do this year.  What’s causing this?  Does he have a different approach on the road than at home?  Is it due to harder competition at home?  Is it a small sample anomaly that will correct itself over time?  Are balls just not falling in for hits at home? 

2012 Balls in Play:

Home – 10.3% LD, 50.0% GB, 39.7% FB, 12.9% HR/FB, .189 BABIP

Road – 22.2% LD, 39.3% GB, 38.3% FB, 3.2% HR/FB, .338 BABIP

Half of his balls in play have been ground balls at home and his line drive rate is way down.  It is just over 100 PA, so it very well could be an anomaly.  But you have to wonder…is Boesch trying to hit more ground balls at Comerica?  Factor in the BB rate and it’s very possible that he just isn’t seeing the ball well at home.    

Has this always been the case?

2010 Balls in Play:

Home – 268 PA, .292/.369/.475,7 HR, 9.7% BB%, 15.3% K%
         16.2% LD, 45.2% GB, 38.6% FB, 9.2% HR/FB, .326 BABIP

Road – 244 PA, .219/.266/.355, 7 HR, 5.7 BB%, 22.5% K%
          14.0% LD, 45.0% GB, 40.9% FB, 10.0% HR/FB, .262 BABIP

2011 Balls in Play:

Home – 242 PA, .289/.347/.486, 9 HR, 7.9% BB%, 14.5% K%
           18.9% LD, 44.9% GB, 36.2% FB, 13.4% HR/FB, .305 BABIP

Road – 230 PA, .276/.335/.429, 7 HR, 7.0% BB%, 20.9% K%
         17.3% LD, 40.7% GB, 42.0 FB, 10.3% HR/FB, .327 BABIP

Boesch hit much better at home than on the road in 2010, but according to the batted ball ratios, his approach was about the same.  His lower BABIP explains why is production was down on the road.  In 2011, everything is about even.

So what is different about Comerica Park in 2012 than it was the last 2 years?  The scoreboard?  Is the new scoreboard causing Boesch not to see the ball well in 2012?  Is this happening to other left-handed hitters? 

And what do we do with Brennan Boesch?  Obviously we can’t bench him at home and only play him on the road.  Do we option him down to AAA?  Do we just play him and hope that it gets corrected?