First, I’ll look at the position players. I’ll assume they
go with 12 position players on a 24 man roster. Players I think will be on the
roster will have a * infront of their name on this list
The locks will comprise most of the position roster:
*1B - Jordan Lennerton - He had a good year last year and is
having a heck of a winter in the Dominican League. There is even talk of him
being a dark horse candidate for a bench spot in Detroit, but with Miggy and
Vmart healthy, this seems extremely unlikely.
*2B – Hernan Perez – Again, He’ll compete for a job in ST
but I think the Tigers want to get him regular at bats so unless he puts up a
spring of amazing stats, expect him to play 2B everyday in Toledo.
*SS – Dixon Machado – If it weren’t for Jose Iglesias, he
might be the best infield glove in the Tigers system. Problem is, his bat
skills make Jose Iglesias look like Miguel Cabrera. He’s done well to make it
up this far but I think he’s topped out. Mud Hens fans should enjoy watching
him track down groundballs in the hole.
*3B – Danny Worth – Recently DFA’ed and back again, he’ll
compete in ST for the reserve IF role but I’m 99% sure he’ll be a Mud Hen for
2014.
*1B/3B/DH – Mike Hessman – The legendary “Magic Mike”
returns to the Glass City. Unfortunately, at 35 years old, the magic might be
in short supply. The good, he still put up a .800+ OPS the last 2 years and on
a Mud Hens team that was starved for offense of any kind last year, he will be
well received. The bad, he still strikes out at 28% rate. In short, he swings
at everything. When he connects, the ball typically doesn’t come back.
*OF – Ezequiel Carrera – Signed a minor league deal and will
compete for a reserve OF bench spot with incumbent Don Kelly. He might actually
beat out Kelly as he has slightly better ML stats than Kelly and is 7 years
younger, but I don’t believe he can pitch in the 9th inning of a
blowout loss. So, advantage Kelly for the moment. Carrera can play all 3 OF
positions.
*OF – Trevor Crowe – See Carrera, Ezequiel but with less
impressive ML stats.
*OF – Ben Guez – I feel like he’s been on the Mud Hens
forever, and he’s likely to be back again this year. I don’t think he’ll ever
make it up to the Tigers though, but he’s a nice all position OF to have.
*C – Ronny Paulino – Tigers picked him up off waivers last
year to provide some catching depth in their upper level minors. I believe
he’ll go to AAA as he does have a fair amount of MLB experience in his career
but he’s purely a backup catcher at this point. Even in Toledo, given the
development of two far better catchers in the organization as I’ll show below,
I expect him to be a backup. That said he’ll still get a fair amount of
catching time behind the primary catcher in Toledo as I could see him trading
off Catching and DH duties to keep their bats fresh, while giving Hessman some
days off of DH or when Hessman is in the field. He'll get at bats but he won’t
be the go to catcher should when Avila goes to the DL.
Now for the guys who could be at Toledo or Erie or someplace
else.
*C – James McCann – With Bryan Holaday slated to be the backup in
Detroit to Avila, McCann should be slated for Toledo after a good year in Erie.
A top 10 Tigers prospect in most lists, He has been seen as a possible Avila
replacement. I think he’s the leading candidate for the starting job in Toledo
but the next guy also had a good year and will need full time at bats somewhere
and has a case for Toledo as well.
C – Ramon Cabrera - Cabrera came to the Tigers in exchange
for once uber prospect Andrew Oliver. Still just 23 years old, he put up an
impressive season between Erie and Toledo. I believe the Tigers will want to
find full time at bats for both him and Mcann, which leads me to believe one
will be in Erie and one will be in Toledo, rather than both on the same team. I
think a case could be made for either of them to be in Toledo but I don’t think
it will really matter as far as development of the player. I’ll say McCann for
now in Toledo and Cabrera in Erie but it really could go either way and be
fine.
*OF - Daniel Fields –
The next prospect OF in our system. He put together a nice year at Erie and
seems ready to take the next step. He’ll have to cut down on the strikeouts and
keep the OPS up but I think he can do it. The reason I don’t think he’s a lock
though is because the next guy could easily take his spot instead, and with
Guez, Crowe, and Carrera in the fold, I think the Tigers will try to ensure full time at
bats for both of them. He plays mostly centerfield and I don’t see that
changing in Toledo.
OF – Tyler Collins – This is the only other guy I could see
starting in the OF at Toledo but he would bump Fields to Erie. He’s another OF
prospect who turned on the power last year in AA, but his average suffered. He
also profiles more as a corner outfielder than a centerfielder. Right now he
and Fields profile as 4th OFs in Detroit (Andy Dirks types) but they
could still surprise. Regardless, I think it is one or the other will the start
of the season in Toledo.
That leaves 1 spot left. There are several part time players
who could get this role, or it could even go to another pitcher if they carry 13
of them on only 11 position players. I won’t go into detail on them all because
I really don’t know that much about them but names like John Murrain (catcher),
Brandon Douglas (infield), *Kevin Russo (IF/OF), Corey Jones (infield), or
someone else could be that last guy. If I had to pick one, I’d go with Russo
since he can ply both infield and outfield. Bottom line, whoever they are,
there is next to no chance they see time in Detroit, unless something goes
catastrophically wrong.
So your position roster at Toledo I feel would look like
this:
C – McCann
1B – Lennerton
2B – Perez
SS – Machado
3B – Worth
LF – Carrera
CF – Fields
RF – Crowe
DH – Hessman
Bench
C – Paulino
OF – Guez
IF – Jones
IF/OF – Russo
Overall this lineup should provide an improved offensive
punch over last year. If I had to guess at a lineup I would think it would look
something like this:
1) Carrera – LF
2) Perez – 2B
3) Hessman – DH
4) Lennerton – 1B
5) Fields – CF
6) Crowe – RF
7) MaCann – C
8) Worth – 3B
9) Machado – SS
Now I’ll take a look at the pitching in Toledo. There are
some notable names to consider in the rotation and the bullpen and its all but
guaranteed well see several of these names up with Detroit at some point this
year. First I’ll look at those I feel are a lock to make the AAA roster. Again,
I’ll designate those I feel make the team with an *.
*SP – Jose Alvarez – The unofficial #6 starter for the
Tigers last year seems destined to continue that role again pitching in the
rotation for Toledo. He put up a 2.80 ERA in AAA last year and was the first
call up when a starter hit the DL. He’ll probably be the #1 starter to call up
when needed unless someone else develops or has a breakthrough year.
*SP – Duane Below – The product of Britton, MI returns to
the Tigers after being claimed by the Marlins when he was DFA’ed to make room
for Jose Valverde. Unfortunately for Below, he did very poorly in his stint
with the Marlins which led to his being released after the season. The Tigers
will look to him to provide depth and possibly compete for a spot in the
bullpen as a lefty reliever but I think he’s best served as a starter, a role
he filled well for the Tigers in 2011 and 2012. He hits the strike zone and gets
outs and is a workhorse. He’s an excellent starting pitcher to have for depth.
*SP – Kyle Lobstein – Another
lefty, Lobstine was claimed in the rule 5 draft last year and after
not
breaking camp with the Tigers , Detroit sent catching prospect Curt Casali to
the Rays for him. The 23 yr old Lobstine rewarded the Tigers with a 3.27 ERA
between Erie and Toledo. He strikes out just under a batter an inning and walks
just about 3 per 9. He held his own moving from AA to AAA and I think the
Tigers will give him a full season at AAA to prove himself and make a case for
a spot start, or more.
*SP – Blaine Hardy – A product of the Royals organization,
the Tigers signed the 26 yr old lefty after the Royals let him go last year. Hardy
responded with a 1.66 ERA as a reliever and starter between Erie and Toledo.
Interestingly enough, his ERA was exactly 1.66 as both a starter and a
reliever. He actually retuned to starting in Toledo for the first time since
2010. I think the Tigers will keep him starting in AAA but see if he can earns
a spot in the pen in ST. This is a guy to keep an eye on for sure.
*RP - Casey Crosby – Long time lefty starting pitcher who is
still just 25 years old is being moved to the bullpen for 2014. After a couple
arm surgeries since being drafted, and continued battles with control, despite
being a strikeout an inning pitcher, the Tigers have decided to move him to the
bullpen to see if they can get some value out of his electric arm. Scouts still
rave that his stuff is good, but his control is his downfall. He’s a lock to
make the Mud Hens team and he’ll compete for a spot as a lefty in the Tigers
pen, but I think he’ll end up in Toledo to learn about being a relief pitcher.
*RP – Luis Marte – He’s made the Tigers bullpen before out
of ST but an injury at the end of the 2012 spring derailed his year. He also
saw action in the majors in 2011 and he pitched well, but his health has not
held up over the last few years. When his arm is right he’s a major league
caliber reliever. The issues will always be his body. Can it stay healthy? He
figures to receive a good look in Spring Training this year and has a good
chance to win a bullpen spot with the Tigers. If he doesn’t he’ll be a lock for
Toledo and as long as he’s healthy, he will be on the short list of reliever
call ups.
*RP – Evan Reed – Claimed by the Tigers last year from the
Marlins, Reed made his ML debut with the Tigers and did a respectable job out
of the bullpen when called upon. Another guy who will get a look in ST to win a
spot but who will ultimately end up in Toledo and be on the short list of
bullpen callups.
*RP – Jose Ortega – A long developed product of the Tigers
system after signing as an international FA at 18, Ortega has made appearances
each of the last 2 years in Detroit and held his own. He also put up a
sparkling year at Toledo in 2013 with a 1.86 ERA in 48 innings. Like the above
2, he’ll be in competition for a bullpen spot but should end up in Toledo on
the tail end of the short list of callups.
*RP – Jhan Marinez – Signed as a minor league free agent,
Jhan Marinez fills the required role of a player with a “Jh” in their first
name. Oh yeah, he also has bounced around the Marlins and White Sox systems,
earning a couple games in the bigs in 2010 and 2012. Stop me if you have head
this story before but he has a live arm and strikes out over a batter an inning
but he walks about 5 and a half per 9. He got an invite to big league camp but
I don’t think he has much of a chance to make the Tigers roster, as such he’ll
wind up in Toledo.
That leaves 3 spots, 1 in the rotation and 2 in the bullpen
open. There’s 3 guys who could be in the mix for the last starter spot, barring
a last minute minor league signing, that I could see starting at Toledo, or
they might go to Erie.
SP – Robbie Ray – The centerpiece to the Doug Fister deal,
DD raved about Ray in many a press conference. The numbers certainly say he’s a
solid prospect, and left handed to boot. The Tigers seem confident he could be
in the rotation in 2015. Unfortunately he only pitched a total of 11 games in
AA last year. He may reach AAA this year but I think he’ll start in AA Erie. He
did get an invitation to big league camp.
SP – Drew VerHagen – The fourth round pick of the Tigers in
2012, righty VerHagen put up a solid season between Lakeland and Erie last
year. Like Ray he’s high on many Tigers prospect lists but with only a few AA
games under his belt he likely starts in Erie. He also got an invitation to big
league camp.
*SP – Ramon Garcia – True organization filler at this point,
he’s been in the Tigers minor leagues since 2005 and has split time between
Erie and Toledo each of the last 3 years. He does okay in Erie but has
typically struggled up in Toledo but he’s logged 28 starts and 156 Innings up
there. Toledo leaned on him quite a bit as a starter last year, taking the ball
15 times. I could see him being 5th starter this year (which would
give them an all left-handed rotation) simply because I’m not sold at all on
VerHagen or Ray starting the year in AAA, and Garcia would be a warm body to
plug in to fill the gap till one of those two comes up.
The last 2 spots in the bullpen I think could be decided
among 5 guys who either finished the season with the Tigers or were signed this
year and put on the 40 man or made non-roster invites. Typically if you are signed as a minor league
FA and given a non roster invite and you don’t make the team, you go to AAA to
be easily called up.
*RP – Kenny Faulk – Drafted by the Tigers in the 16th round
of the 2009 draft Faulk has patiently worked his way up the system, earning
spot in AAA last year. A strikeout lefthander, he has posted a K/9 rate above
10 at each level he has played. However, like so many Tigers arms in the
minors, he has issues with control, walking about 6.5 per 9 each of the last 2
years. He’ll have to find some control if he wants to have a shot in Detroit,
but I don’t see a reason why he wouldn’t be assigned to Toledo again this
year.
*RP – Eduardo Sanchez – A former product of the Cardinals
system, Sanchez has appeared in the majors each of the last 3 years for a
handful of games. His most successful was 2011 in St Louis where he posted a
1.80 ERA in 30 innings. However the righty was never able to recapture that
level of performance and his walks rose and strikeouts dropped. Over the last 2
years he’s battled command and seen his strikeouts tail off. He was picked up
by the Cubs last year but after being let go in November, the Tigers picked him
up and gave him an invite to camp. He’s
certainly an interesting guy to watch because he has had good command and
control in the past and at only 24, the potential is still there. I don’t think
he’ll beat out other candidates in spring camp but he should go to Toledo and
could even see the big leagues again if he gets his walks down.
RP – Justin Miller – Former Texas prospect, Miller signed a
minor league deal with the Tigers and was later added to the 40 man roster
before the rule 5 draft. He is trying to comeback after arm surgery that forced
him to miss all of the 2012 season. In 2011, he threw 70 innings at AA with a
1.81 ERA and a healthy 3.21 K/BB ratio. But then he went under the knife and
his comeback bid did not impress in Texas last year, walking just over 5 per 9
and touting a 7.67 ERA in 27 innings. The Tigers clearly like his arm enough to
give him a chance. Despite his struggles last year he still struck out an
impressive 11 per 9, which is close to his career mark before his arm issues.
It’s kind of a toss-up as to whether he’ll start at Toledo or Erie, or even
make a team if he has a disastrous spring. My gut says no to AAA but I would
not be shocked at all to see him assigned there.
The last two names on the list have actually been assigned
to Toledo according to the team’s transaction page but I find that odd, given
the higher potential, ML ready, talent with a case for AAA. I think they could
be bumped back to Erie but they may end up in Toledo anyway. If either one
could start I could see them actually bumping Garcia to Erie but they are both
relievers.
RP – Will Startup – A 28 year old lefty was a part of the Braves
org all the way back till 2007, when was traded with Wil Ledezma to the
Padres, but he missed 2008 with TJ
surgery and has been on the comeback trail ever since. He signed with Erie last
year and put up a respectable season, going 85 innings with a 3.41 ERA, low
walks, but not many strikeouts. He is certainly in a position to go to Toledo
and he could be assigned there and it wouldn’t surprise me, but with such a
left heavy rotation, plus Crosby and Faulk already in the fold, I find it
difficult to place him there as he would be one of many lefties and he might be
left fighting for innings. Being assigned to Toledo is odd here cause I don’t
see it but he could bump a guy like Sanchez or even Faulk back to Erie to at
least start the year.
RP – Pat McCoy – Cast off from the National organization
after flaming out from being picked in the 10th round of the 07
draft, Startup was picked up by the Tigers and assigned to Toledo. This really
shocks me because he has a total of 7 career games at AAA and it wasn’t pretty.
His AA stats aren’t pretty either. He has a healthy K to BB ratio but his
biggest problem is avoiding bats, given his career 10.9 H/9 mark and 4.67 ERA.
He makes less sense than anyone to be assigned to AAA given his lack of
experience at that level and underwhelming AA numbers. I figure he was signed
as part of a glut of lefty relievers to see if they could find a hidden gem to
replace Coke in the bullpen and the uncertainty of Ian Krol. My expectations for
McCoy are very very low. We’ll see if he still makes the Toledo roster but I
don’t see a good case for it.
So, in recap here is my projected Toledo pitching staff:
SP – Alvarez LHP
SP – Below LHP
SP – Lobstine LHP
SP – Hardy LHP
SP – Garcia LHP
RP – Marte – RHP
RP – Reed – RHP
RP – Crosby – LHP
RP – Ortega – RHP
RP – Faulk – LHP
RP - Marinez - RHP
RP – Sanchez – RHP
Its missing prospect appeal outside of Lobstine, Marte, and
Crosby, but the 2013 staff wasn’t overly impressive and they more than held
their own. If the 2014 group can find success the increased offense should get
them some more wins in low scoring games. Overall, I think they are looking
good for a .500 season with an outside shot of making a playoff bid, especially
if VerHagen and Ray come up from Erie.