2014 Preseason Prediction #13 - Joe Nathan

Over the last decade, Joe Nathan has been one the best closers in baseball.  Since 2004, Nathan has a 2.14 ERA, 340  Saves and a 10.8 K/9.   A good argument could be made that only Mariano Rivera has been better over the last 10 years.  Nathan had one of his best years last year with the Rangers, with a 1.39 ERA, 43 saves and a 10.2 K/9.  

However, Nathan is 39 years old, so one has to wonder how much longer he can pitch at an elite level.  Also, with the small sample sizes relievers pitch in, a few bad games can ruin their stats, which makes it very hard to predict.  The good news is that Nathan has been very consistent aside from his 2011 season, the year after he had Tommy John surgery.  His last 2 years with the Rangers, he had a 2.09 ERA 0.98 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and averaged 40 saves/year.   

Nathan did have some good fortune last year.  His walk rate was over 3 BB/9 for the first time since he became a reliever, a sign that maybe his control isn't as good as it once was.  Also, his home run to fly ball rate was only 3%, the lowest of his career.  The four previous years, it was 9.1%, 9.6%, 11.5% and 13%.  It's reasonable to suggest that there's going to be some regression here.      Other batted ball data also shows some luck was involved:

	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	0.250	17.8%	34.9%	47.3%
2012	0.306	21.5%	45.4%	33.1%
2013	0.224	23.3%	32.0%	44.7%

Since becoming a reliever, his line drive rate has never been as high as it was in 2013, but his BABIP has never been as low as it was in 2013.  Having a high line drive rate and a low BABIP is pretty remarkable and unsustainable, even with very good defense.  I expect this to even out in 2014.  Also, his ground ball rate has never been as low as it was in 2013.  Since 2007, his ground ball rate has been above 40% every year expect his rebuilding 2011 and last year.  High ground ball rates are preferable since they minimize the potential of extra base hits.  If it's going to stay around 30% instead of 40%, that's a problem.  

I don't think Nathan will have a bad season in 2014, but given his age and these other stats, I don't think he'll have an ERA under 2.00 again.

Experts' Projection/Prediction:

	IP	SV	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	65	35	3.03	1.15	66	18
Oliver	57	-	3.16	1.14	56	17
ZiPS	52 2/3	-	2.91	1.12	61	16
RotoChamp	62	35	2.90	1.08	68	20
CBS Sports	64	41	2.81	1.00	68	21
ESPN	62	42	2.76	1.02	67	16
MLB.com	63	40	2.57	1.05	69	19
FanGraphs' Fans (7)	68	41	2.39	1.07	78	20

 
My Prediction:

	IP	SV	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2013 Actual	64 2/3	43	1.39	0.897	73	22
2014 Prediction	62 1/3	38	2.89	1.091	68	23

 
Fantasy Impact:  Mock Draft Central has his average draft position at 98, which is the 9th round of a standard 12-team league.  I always wait until about the 12th or 13th round to start drafting my closers since the potential loss of a good hitter or starter is too great.  I won't be drafting Nathan this year, but in the 9th round, that could be good value for him.  

2014 Preseason Prediction #12 - Nick Castellanos

Nick Castellanos had a fine year in AAA last year, hitting .276/.343/.450 with 18 HR and 76 RBI.  The Tigers called him up in September and he hit an empty .278 with no walks and no extra base hits in sporadic playing time.  He's been one of the Tigers' best hitters this Spring, hitting .373/.389/.627, easing some Tiger fans' minds that he is indeed ready.

Castellanos has always been young for the level that he was in.  He just turned 22 earlier in March.  To perform as well as he had in the minors against competition much older than him is a little remarkable.  Castellanos had a 121 wRC+ in AAA last year, tied for 16th best in the International League.  However, if we filter out everyone who is 26 years or older (an age where people tend to drop the "prospect" label), Castellanos moves up to 4th:

Name	Age	OPS+
Vince Belnome	25	143
L.J. Hoes	23	134
Cody Asche	23	133
Nick Castellanos	21	121
Cesar Hernandez	23	121

Nick Castellanos is the youngest of this group, which is pretty good for his development.  If he struggles too much at the ML level, the Tigers can send him down for more seasoning without the risk of him being a bust.  At least not right away; they still have time on their side.  This might very well happen with Castellanos as he tended to struggle in the first month or so after advancing to the next level during the minors.  Hopefully his good Spring will carry over to the regular season and we don't have to worry about sending him down.

According to Minor League Central, Castellanos had a 9.1% walk rate and a 16.8% strikeout rate.  Those were his best marks over his last 3 years in the minors, but he might struggle to maintain those in his first year in the Majors.  Conservatively, I'll go with around a 6-6.5% walk rate and around a 20-22% strikeout rate for 2014.  However, those numbers should improve as he matures.  

Batted ball data is also available at Minor League Central, but should be taken with a grain of salt as it is with different minor league levels and it might not translate well to the majors:

	Level	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	A	0.401	19.5%	36.4%	38.7%
2012	A+/AA	0.384	24.0%	42.3%	30.9%
2013	AAA	0.307	22.4%	36.5%	37.2%

There first thing that sticks out is his high BABIP in 2011 and 2012, however that might just be a product of being a good hitter as it kinda normalized once he reached better competition in AAA.  He has shown very good line drive rates and his fly ball rate increased from 2012 to 2013, which could be a good sign of home run power if he can keep it around 40% in 2014. 

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	495	0.269	0.315	0.399	11	58	5	32	95
Oliver	550	0.255	0.310	0.409	17	73	3	43	118
ZiPS	599	0.277	0.320	0.429	18	64	5	36	117
RotoChamp	465	0.262	0.314	0.396	11	51	4	-	-
CBS Sports	545	0.264	0.320	0.402	13	66	3	45	109
ESPN	457	0.239	0.299	0.365	11	44	4	38	107
MLB.com	513	0.255	0.320	0.398	13	76	2	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (21)	475	0.269	0.324	0.411	12	57	4	38	102

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2013 Actual	18	0.278	0.278	0.278	0	0	0	0	1
2014 Prediction	533	0.253	0.306	0.409	16	61	3	38	125

Fantasy Impact:  Rookies are generally a high risk/high reward when it comes to fantasy baseball, and I'd put Nick Castellanos in that category.  He could be one of the better options for a CI slot if that's the format you're in, however he won't get 3B eligibility right away.  Having both 3B and OF eligibility could be a plus for flexibility purposes.  In deep leagues, grabbing Castellanos in the later rounds could pay off greatly.  

2014 Preseason Prediction #11 - Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly had a fantastic year in relief last year, with a 2.37 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 81 strikeouts in 76 innings.  When the Tigers traded Doug Fister to the Nationals, that opened a spot in the rotation for Smyly.  He was a starter all through the minors and even started 18 games at the Major League level in 2012.  However, there is a durability issue here; the most amount of innings he has pitched was 126 in 2011.  

	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	HR%	FIP
As a Starter	95	3.79	1.21	22.3%	6.6%	3.0%	3.77
As a Reliever	80 1/3	2.96	1.12	26.8%	7.4%	1.2%	2.47

As with most pitchers, Smyly is much more effective as a reliever, but should still be good enough as a starter.  Smyly is still only 25, so he still has some time to adjust and improve if needed.  Such as improving his 5.3 innings/start.

Another area of adjusting is re-introducing his changeup, which he almost completely abandoned in relief last year.  According to Brooks Baseball, Smyly mainly throws two types of fastballs (4-seamer and cutter), a slider and, when he was starting, a changeup.  Having at least three pitches is ideal for any starter to keep hitters off balance while going through the batting order two or three times.  According to Brooks Baseball, Smyly threw 78 changeups in 2012, and all but 1 of them were against right-handed batters.  It was very ineffective as opposing batters got 4 hits in 7 AB, including  2 home runs and a triple.  Overall in his career:

	BAA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Vs. LHB	0.204	0.254	0.315	0.252
Vs. RHB	0.249	0.311	0.425	0.319

Being left-handed, Smyly does better against left-handed batters than right-handed batters.  There's nothing alarming here as a .319 wOBA against is perfectly reasonable.  However, having an effective changeup against right-handed batters can really take Smyly to the next level.  

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	125	9-7	3.92	1.29	110	43
Oliver	99	7-4	3.19	1.19	97	30
ZiPS	135	-	4.07	1.27	127	41
RotoChamp	134	9-6	3.69	1.27	124	42
CBS Sports	150	8-9	3.84	1.23	142	48
ESPN	168	12 W	3.91	1.27	149	54
MLB.com	179	10-9	3.72	1.28	168	58
FanGraphs' Fans (13)	161	10-9	3.75	1.21	147	46

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2013 Actual	76	6-0	2.37	1.039	81	17
2014 Prediction	153 1/3	9-9	3.70	1.213	140	44

Fantasy Impact:  Smyly is an interesting case.  Due to a good strikeout rate and a potential ERA below 4.00, Smyly should be hot commodity.  However, there is a risk because of durability issues and a full season workload as a starter.  He's a good draft pick at later rounds, but use him carefully.  

2014 Preseason Prediction #10 - Alex Avila

Two years ago Alex Avila had a breakout year.  He had a batting line of .295/.389/.506, started the All-Star Game and was very durable down the stretch, playing what seemed like almost every single game in the 2nd half.  He looked like he could be a star for several years, playing a position that lacked superstars.  Then he had two lackluster years and some Tiger fans are wondering why he is even still in the majors, let alone starting.

There is still one skill that Avila did really well last year, his walk rate.  Avila walked 11.6% of his plate appearances last year, which ranked 4th among catchers with at least 350 PA .  Two catchers that were ahead of him, Joe Mauer (1B) and Carlos Santana (3B), are expected to play different positions in 2014.  

Avila also showed moderate to average power last year.  His isolated power (ISO) of .148 ranked 5th among regular Tiger starters, slightly better than Austin Jackson (.145) and way better than Victor Martinez (.129).  The league average ISO was .143 in 2013.  

Unfortunately, Avila also increased his strikeout rate from around 24% in 2011-2012 to almost 30% in 2013.  This almost certainly contributed to his low batting average.  Batted ball data from FanGraphs:

	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	0.366	21.7%	37.8%	40.5%
2012	0.313	23.8%	46.4%	29.8%
2013	0.305	28.0%	42.2%	29.8%

Avila had an unsustainable BABIP in 2011, that regressed in 2012 and 2013.  He also had a much higher fly ball rate in 2011, which helped contribute to his 19 HR that year.  Along with the higher strikeouts, it looks like his low batting average resulted in just dumb luck as his line drive rate was at 28%, the highest of his career.  According to FanGraphs, everyone who had at least 350 PA, only 2 players had a higher LD rate than Avila, Jarrod Saltalamacchia (29.8%) and James Loney (28.6%).  Salty hit .273 and Loney hit .299 last year.  

Avila also has had a reputation of getting beat up behind the plate, which could also factor into his less than stellar year.  However, he did hit .303/.376/.500 with a 141 wRC+ in the 2nd half last year, which is an encouraging sign.  

Avila still struggles against left-handed pitchers, though:

Vs. LHP	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011	0.273	0.349	0.430
2012	0.176	0.304	0.235
2013	0.139	0.227	0.228

Vs. RHP	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011	0.304	0.403	0.536
2012	0.262	0.367	0.429
2013	0.255	0.345	0.422

New manger Brad Ausmus is a former catcher, so he should know the best times to rest Avila so that he can stay healthy.  This along with resting against tough lefties and possibly hitting more fly balls like he did in 2011, Avila could have a really nice year in 2014. 


Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	359	0.242	0.341	0.401	12	48	2	53	106
Oliver	519	0.231	0.327	0.385	17	66	1	73	164
ZiPS	388	0.237	0.340	0.397	13	55	1	60	124
RotoChamp	369	0.249	0.345	0.412	12	49	2
CBS Sports	355	0.237	0.331	0.397	12	55	0	50	115
ESPN	477	0.252	0.347	0.407	15	67	1	70	149
MLB.com	365	0.266	0.353	0.441	14	51	1
FanGraphs' Fans (18)	418	0.254	0.347	0.409	13	57	1	60	120

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	399	0.241	0.344	0.414	13	59	2	63	112
2013 Actual	330	0.227	0.317	0.376	11	47	0	44	112
2014 Prediction	342	0.246	0.342	0.409	12	50	1	50	102

 

Fantasy Impact:  Mock Draft Central current has him at #294, which would be the last round of typical drafts.  If you punt catcher and wait until the last possible moment to grab a catcher, you could do worse than Avila, who is primed for a bounce-back year.  However, there are other catchers that might be more appealing around the time Avila is going, such as Jason Castro or Travis d'Arnaud.