2015 Preseason Prediction #11 - Alex Avila

If there's one word to describe Alex Avila, it is "concussion."  For the last few years, Avila has endured many concussion and concussion-like symptoms that have certainly hampered his offensive performance:

Year	BABIP	AVG	ISO	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
2011	0.366	0.295	0.211	13.2%	23.8%	0.384	140
2012	0.313	0.243	0.142	14.1%	24.0%	0.327	104
2013	0.305	0.227	0.148	11.6%	29.6%	0.310	92
2014	0.322	0.218	0.141	13.3%	33.0%	0.311	97

Avila's All-Star 2011 season turned out to be unsustainable, which was predictable given his high BABIP.  Two stats that have been remarkably consistent over the last few years are his walk rates (which have led to a decent OBP, even with a poor batting average) and his ISO (after his unsustainable .211 ISO in 2011, it's been in the .140's over the last 3 years).  His strikeout rate has been increasing at an alarming rate, which has caused his batting average to drop.  It does make me wonder what his stats would look like had Avila not suffered so many concussions.  

Another reason why Avila's stats are as poor as they are is because his numbers against left-handed pitching is terrible.  Being a left-handed batter, it makes sense that his numbers against southpaws will not be as good as against right-handed pitchers.  However, his stats show that he shouldn't get any playing time against southpaws:

2012-14	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wOBA	wRC+
Vs. LHP	0.185	0.275	0.259	10.1%	33.9%	0.249	51
Vs. RHP	0.244	0.351	0.410	14.0%	27.3%	0.338	112

Alex Avila probably got more playing time that he deserved last year, mainly because his backup, Bryan Holaday was even worse against left-handed pitchers (.151/.188/.192, -1 wRC+).  Yes, that's a negative wRC+.  The good news this year is that James McCann is expected to be Avila's backup this year, who absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching in AAA last year (.336/.396/.469).  If there is a strict platoon, then this should help Avila's rate numbers.  However, it's very hard to predict a bench player's playing time.  A lot depends on the health of the regular player and both player's performance.  Who knows how long it'll take for McCann's numbers to translate against ML pitcher, if ever?  Or McCann could hit right out of the gate and become the regular by the All-Star break.  

This is a contract year for Alex Avila.  Whether or not that'll motivate Avila to perform better than he has is a debate that'll last until the end of time.  One thing that this could mean though, is that this might be the last year that Avila sees regular playing time at the catching position.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	316	0.230	0.329	0.374	9	37	2	46	108
CAIRO	406	0.231	0.331	0.377	12	46	1	57	133
ZiPS	388	0.229	0.333	0.379	12	53	1	60	138
RotoChamp	369	0.225	0.329	0.369	11	47	0	56	134
CBS Sports	375	0.224	0.322	0.384	12	45	1	54	134
ESPN	343	0.219	0.320	0.359	10	41	0	50	124
MLB.com	370	0.227	0.324	0.373	11	40	1	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (14)	386	0.231	0.333	0.360	10	48	0	59	127

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	342	0.246	0.342	0.409	12	50	1	50	102
2014 Actual	390	0.218	0.327	0.359	11	47	0	61	151
2015 Prediction	366	0.224	0.333	0.372	11	46	0	59	133

Fantasy Impact:  Alex Avila is a non-factor on draft day and probably isn't worth a look on the waiver wire.  Mock Draft Central doesn't even have him listed after 347 picks.  A lot has to do with his poor performance, but also his playing time.  James McCann is expected to see a lot of playing time in anticipation of taking over catching duties full-time in 2016.  

2015 Preseason Prediction #10 - Shane Greene

Shane Greene was acquired from the New York Yankees in a 3-way deal that sent Robbie Ray and Domingo Leyba to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  

The following data is taking from Brooks Baseball:

Pitch Type	Frequency	K	BAA
Sinker	37.1%	10	0.318
Cutter	27.7%	36	0.235
Slider	16.3%	19	0.156
Fourseam	14.2%	9	0.245
Change	4.7%	7	0.333

Greene's repertoire looks similar to Rick Porcello's, who relies on his sinker to get a lot of ground balls (50.2%).  The biggest difference is that Greene has a strikeout pitch in the cutter.  However, many Tiger fans are making the comparison to Doug Fister, who's minor league stats weren't that impressive but has had great success in the majors:

Minor Leagues	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
Doug Fister	4.30	1.381	6.7	2.2
Shane Greene	4.39	1.479	8.2	3.6

Like Fister, Greene has been successful for the Yankees (albeit only 1/2 season) with his ERA estimators showing that his ERA was not really a fluke:

ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	K/9	BB/9
3.78	3.73	3.40	3.41	9.3	3.3

This is encouraging not only to the Tigers rotation, but from a trade standpoint too as Greene looks to be a better pitcher than many people were predicting Ray to be.  This does beg the question of what Shane Greene was doing different in the Majors than from the Minors and if he can keep it up.

The reason why I loved the Tiger acquisition of Doug Fister but I'm still leery on Shane Greene is that Fister already established himself with 378 Major League innings before the Tigers acquired him.  Greene has only 78 2/3 Major League innings.  Fister was able to make adjustments, even after the Tigers acquired him.  Who knows if Greene can do that same?  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	129	8-8	4.42	1.37	96	45
CAIRO	128	7-7	4.17	1.56	106	50
ZiPS	140 2/3	8-7	4.48	1.44	115	53
RototChamp	130	8-7	4.15	1.39	114	49
CBS Sports	180	12-9	3.55	1.31	176	58
ESPN	162	9 W	4.56	1.52	136	69
MLB.com	165	10-9	3.93	1.36	131	59
FanGraphs' Fans (20)	154	9-8	3.93	1.25	143	54

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	78 2/3	5-4	3.78	1.398	81	29
2015 Prediction	157	7-10	4.47	1.510	135	61

Fantasy Impact: Shane Greene should probably be a non-factor during the draft.  However, keep an eye on him in the waiver wire.  If the 9 K/9 is for real, that's a lot of strikeouts to be had and a high strikeout rate usually results in a low ERA.  

2015 Preseason Prediction #9 - Nick Castellanos

I kind of went over Nick Castellanos' rookie year in this post.  

Batted ball data taken from FanGraphs:

BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%
0.326	28.5%	35.0%	36.5%

General consensus is that Castellanos' BABIP was low given the LD rate he posted (which was the 2nd highest in all of baseball).  This caused Castellanos' batting average to only be .259 - again low given the the amount of line drives he hit.  

It's hard to predict someone like Castellanos.  The league is going to make adjustments, therefore Nick will have to make adjustments.  Can Nick have a high LD rate again?  And if so, is he prone to bad fortune relative to his LD rate?  Can he improve his strikeout rate and walk rate, which will also effect his BABIP?  

Remember, Nick Castellanos is only entering his age 23 season.  The fact that he was able to accomplish as much as he did at such a young age in his rookie year gives a lot of hope going forward.  

Two things that translate well from the minors to the majors are walk rates and strikeout rates:

Level	BB%	K%
Minors	7.9%	19.9%
MLB (2014)	6.2%	24.2%

 

Nick Castellanos under-performed in both areas based on what he did in the minors.  As he continues to learn MLB hitting and mature in his prime years, there's a good chance that both of these numbers will improve, hopefully as soon as 2015.  

Looking at his power numbers:

Level	ISO	HR/FB
Minors	0.129	N/A
MLB (2014)	0.135	7.5%

 

Batted ball data for minor league players is hard to get.  Minor League Central gives these stats, but I'm not sure how accurate they are.  They give a HR/FB ratio of 7.9% for Castellanos in the minors (excluding 2010), however how much weight should we put on that number?  They give an 11% HR/FB ratio at AAA.  It's reasonable to assume that this number will go up as Castellanos gains muscle and starts to hit more home runs.  How much will it go up in 2015, though? I think it's safe that he will be around league average, which was 9.5% in 2014.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	495	0.265	0.313	0.414	14	61	4	33	109
CAIRO	540	0.253	0.313	0.387	12	52	5	42	130
ZiPS	572	0.280	0.327	0.442	17	77	3	40	122
RotoChamp	544	0.263	0.310	0.393	12	66	2	37	136
CBS Sports	550	0.258	0.308	0.407	14	71	4	40	131
ESPN	584	0.264	0.311	0.408	14	69	3	40	139
MLB.com	545	0.266	0.316	0.411	15	72	3	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (20)	549	0.273	0.326	0.434	16	70	4	43	130

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	533	0.253	0.306	0.409	16	61	3	38	125
2014 Actual	533	0.259	0.306	0.394	11	66	2	36	140
2015 Prediction	571	0.261	0.314	0.417	16	70	2	44	125

Fantasy Impact:  The problem here is that 3B is a deep position, especially considering that Miguel Cabrera is still eligible at 3B in some leagues.  Mock Draft Central has an average draft position of 265, which is one of the last couple of round in a standard 12-team league.  He's a good risk to take in the last couple of round in case he breaks out, but chances are his true breakout season is a couple of years away.